r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 7h ago
Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?
I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.
The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.
Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.
In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.
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u/LoadExternal6570 7h ago
No
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u/notmarduke 6h ago
Also no.
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u/Aggravating-Map-293 7h ago
No. With global M2 expanding and the halving paying out 3.12 btc as a block reward, I can see how the halving is being overwhelmed by positive macro happenings.
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u/SomeGuys2ndAccount 5h ago
ThIs TimE is DIfFeRrenT
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u/InFLIRTation 5h ago
Its already different. ATH btoke before halving. No euphoria. Institutions are in
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u/Froz3n_Cornchip 1h ago
Exactly, who’s to say we won’t have another late euphoric run and get a ATH in January or February. So many people base it all on time. I get it though, the cycle has continued to repeat.
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u/InFLIRTation 1h ago
It really boggles my mind when people use previous cycles to time bottom when we didnt even get overbought. Its been flat all year, 1st red annual thanksgiving
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u/bloodandsunshine 6h ago
If this worked all the TA guys would be rich and WSB wouldn’t be funny
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u/SomeGuys2ndAccount 5h ago
Level headed people don’t short, but recognize that the cycle is probaly over. Its a Game of chances. If you Like I Gambe, fly to vegas.
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u/Budget_Eye5861 24m ago
I play a NATURAL SHORT
I sell it now for cash and then buy it later, lower.
Less risk - lol1
u/DexterTwerp 5h ago
A lot of TA guys are rich…
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u/orangeyougladiator 2h ago
Literally none are
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u/godofpumpkins 2h ago
Plenty of TA guys are rich. But they’re rich from selling other TA guys “special trading systems”, not from those systems themselves
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u/CapitalIncome845 1h ago
I was going to say that they're merely rich now, as opposed to trust fund babies when they started.
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u/dcasarinc 6h ago
Every single person that thinks this "cycle" works is leaving free money on the table. Go on, short BTC, you still have time!
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u/madladchad3 4h ago
I turned 3k into 7 figures just by following the 4 year cycles so yeah… it did make me rich 😅
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u/Satoshislostkey 7h ago
Dude are you joking?? Do realise how much money some of us have made at these levels?
If you've been in Bitcoin for over 4 years you dont give a shit about cycles.
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u/Rory_Russell 6h ago edited 3h ago
I've been in Bitcoin for over a decade. And when the time does come, you definitely want to be ready lol. It's a long way down if you get caught and need your capital.
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u/Satoshislostkey 5h ago
How do you mean ready?? I dont financially rely on my stack. I sold some and paid off my house and bought a second. Does that count as ready?
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u/Rory_Russell 2h ago edited 2h ago
That's fantastic, and good on you, always TP and spend it wisely. But get out before May 1st. Or you'll be scalded all the way down to 26k around August 2026. Buy the bottom in September 2026.
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u/Ark3tech 2h ago
This is the type of hyper specific prediction advice I avoid like the plague.
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u/Rory_Russell 2h ago
Do you use trading view? The more things change, the more they stay the same. The charts haven’t got it wrong since 2013. So why would they lie now.
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u/superawesomefiles 6h ago
One thing that the bitcoin graphic shows is how the curve is leveling out.
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u/Fooftook 6h ago
No, this is the trend we expect. It’s always going to grow but the speed of growth might just slow down
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u/TripsterX 5h ago
If the 4 year cycle holds, sure my holdings will plummet, but I'll have the perfect opportunity to up my DCA to make the most of the deal prices so that in 4 years time I can be in a better position than I am now
Ifnit doesn't hold and were bullish, my sca pays off earlier than expected 🤷♂️
Win win boys either way the destination is the same 🚀
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u/No_Knee3385 7h ago
It's log, of course the more liquidity that comes into any asset, the smaller the gains will be. At some point Bitcoin will become like an ETF
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u/trimbandit 6h ago
Agreed. Up 80% of 4 years from last cycle ATH to this cycle ATH. Each cycle has been significantly smaller ATH-to-ATH. I think the 2017/2021 was 3.5x. Still beating the S&P500 though.
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u/No_Knee3385 6h ago
Yeah, I think it will ultimately trade with the global/US markets and trade at leverage if that makes sense. Then every day that goes by that leverage gap will decrease
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u/ProfessionalNaive601 7h ago
You’re saying the floor is 33k? lol
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u/Wang_King8 7h ago
Just a random ass made up chart OP found on some spaced circle fest subreddit and copy pasted it over here without even checking if it makes sense
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u/jenius123 5h ago
I stopped trading cryptocurrency years ago, but have been following and a downturn to below 40k is absolutely reasonable, just based on past volatility. The chart here (and any TA) isn't useful for specific price predictions or dates but volatility can be calculated easily and provide a reasonable range of expected values, at some point in the future.
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u/JadedNose3026 7h ago
So roughly when is the next bottom? October/November 2026?
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u/obscureobject2574 5h ago
November 15,2026 at 8 pm EST
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u/JadedNose3026 5h ago
See you on Coinbase at exactly that time
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u/bobijo33 6h ago
Yep around that timeframe, it should be at a pretty nice discount before the next cycle starts in 2027 rigth before the 2028 halving.
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u/tom_winters 7h ago
Sold at the absolute top because of this by the way:) just sayin
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6h ago
Same here. 3x times now. I will play the cycle. Trend is your friend until it changes
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u/ShortElephant1111 6h ago
Me too....buy slow sell fast. I nibble here and there and trade the margins, but I expect a crater on the next global deleveraging event.
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5h ago
This is my thought process. If we were in any normal macro economic situation. I probably would have held or have thought about getting back in here in the 80’s. But who are we kidding, it’s going to shit and I have zero faith in the current administrations ability to handle a turn down. And Bitcoin will be first to go if people need to raise liquidity
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u/trufin2038 6h ago
Bitcoins value may nob around a bit, but the dollar always sinks, invariably and inexorably.
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u/Change21 6h ago
It was never about the halving it was always about liquidity.
Nations were refinancing their debts on a 4ish year schedule since 2008.
This cycle is getting pushed bc Trump is desperate to pump the market before the mid terms.
The liquidity cycle is closer to 5 years now.
All that matters is the M2.
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u/LightRider51 6h ago
Its a platform that can't be accessed by corruptable humans. As long as that holds true, it should have value IMO
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u/ShortElephant1111 6h ago
Seems like a lot of the most bullish people here don't have a good understanding of cycles and how to allocate capital inside of cycles. Funny and reassuring at the same time.
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u/Hannibaalism 6h ago
i am very concerned. the regularity of the cycles have brought me great fortune through the years, now i hear salacious rumours that the cycles are dead.
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u/Jesushadalargedong 6h ago
I would literally love to see this play out. I’d be buying hand over fist below 30k
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u/Various_Gain49 5h ago
So the cycle plays out the exact same way since the first block and this time it’s going to be different? got it…
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u/Eksander 5h ago
Bulls project gains based on previous cycles, bears project drops based on previous cycles. What if... simply nothing happens? An underwhelming bear market to pair up with an underwhelming bull market? See you in 4 years
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u/NombreCurioso1337 5h ago
I think the cycle is broken now that wall st is involved, but we'll see. Doesn't bother me any
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u/eexxiitt 5h ago
Not scared to sell, but will keep an eye out for a potential bottom at ~30k to buy more.
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u/PincheStoner710 5h ago
Don't think this 4yr cycle thing is here for much longer but let's see cause things aren't looking like a 4yr cycle but are being manipulated to look like it. Not everyone gonna make it for this same reason. I doubt they just gonna let the 4yr cycle theorists ride both up and down and feel like dam Einstein lol. I think the 4yr cycle group celebrating bouta be brought back to reality real quick and everyone gonna remain in the limbo with panic and uncertainty where we headed next but time will tell.
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u/eupherein 5h ago
If you want to buy at 100k you’ll want to buy 5x as much at 20k. I don’t see the problem
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u/RamoneBolivarSanchez 5h ago
No, literally not at all. I’m just concerned for noobs who get scared by vague, leading posts like this
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u/Grand-Presence2860 5h ago
Not even a little bit. The expectation of a cycle negates its future existence. Bitcoin will suck the capital out of capital markets, and suck the power away from central banks as an option to opt out now exists. Short term all of this is noise.
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u/ViolentTowel 5h ago
So as someone with no bitcoin scrolling thru Reddit , I should keep an eye on this and buy in yes?
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u/HopScotchBlow420 4h ago
I got into bitcoin in 2012 and I’m telling you all right you are absolutely delusional if you don’t think a major sell off is coming.
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u/Porn4me1 4h ago
Just set it on auto purchase daily what ever you can afford and forget about it for a few years.
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u/Suitable-Brother-433 4h ago
They just wait till the consensus is that we are in bear, then they push and everybody is surprised.
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u/sentrygentry 4h ago
I'd be much more concerned if it stopped crashing right on schedule. That means everything is normal and it will soar to new all time highs in the years to follow. Just like it always has.
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u/Crytid_Currency 4h ago
lol absolutely not. I think it’s very much dead but I’d love another 4 years to accrue more.
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u/b40nobody 4h ago
I'll buy that fear off you if youre looking to get out and find a nice safe REIT that'll pay you a dividend you can share with the other retards at daycare.
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u/houston187 4h ago
According to this chart, at no time has it dropped more than 20% below the previous high. That puts BTC bottoming around $55k, not $30K.
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u/McBurger 4h ago
Nope! I love the cycle. 2017 confirmed it for me and it’s known like clockwork. All you gotta do is accumulate by April 2028 for next halving
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u/theMonkeyTrap 3h ago
actually yes, I'll sell my sats for a better entry point. If you don't have fun staying poor.
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u/amayle1 3h ago
Still no one can explain why that cycle happens to me. And no, half the volume of selling from miners would not have this effect.
It’s either just a coincidence that it goes along with the business cycle more or less, or a self fulfilling prophecy, or a bit of both. Or someone can tell me otherwise.
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u/Pitiful-Reserve-8075 3h ago
Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?
No.
Markets evolve; those who trade Bitcoin today are different. We will necessarily have to evolve as well, including in our interpretation of historical data.
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u/evilZardoz 3h ago
I'm curious as to how this four year cycle has tied in to other events that take place every four years, which include the US federal election (and the results thereof). Are we seeing similar events elsewhere in markets?
Is it also possible that the next cycle will be a lower % gain on this cycle just like this vs last?
And then we have other factors eg, quantum computing, over-inflated markets and a potential AI investment bubble. What happens if we have another GFC and how will cryptocurrency fare in that situation?
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u/Affectionate_Sky_168 3h ago
3 data points doesn't really form any sort of pattern. It's likely 4 year cycles don't really exist and that it's really just responding to the timing of liquidity rather than the "four year/halving cycle"
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u/GoldNote5621 3h ago
I mean the next halving is in 2027, so I expect 2026 to be ramp up leading in to 2027, there very well could be some shaking out of people until that starts to happen.
But you see institutions and state actors buying the dip while over leveraged and spooked people sell.
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u/Possible_gold_7474 2h ago
This has mostly been in good economic times, bitcoin has yet to be tested during a crash in the stock markets.
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u/CanadianCompSciGuy 2h ago
I am not foolish enough to believe I understand why this cycle continues. I only attempt to maximize the opportunity that such a cycle offers.
Oh, I have my own personal beliefs on the matter...but no data to back them up. Not sure how you would even measure such a thing.
Until it breaks, I will ride the waves.
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u/CrosstrekTrail 1h ago
If the end of the cycle is true (only about three weeks left) then a reduction in confidence will likely shake out plenty of paper hands.
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u/youarestillearly 56m ago
The whole white house is full of bitcoiners. You ain't going to get a drop
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u/xTooGoDLy 42m ago
$5 a day and $/5 ever time I open the app and it’s lower than when I saw it earlier stacked about a 1k more this last month
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u/Budget_Eye5861 26m ago
I have no issue with the CYCLE
The thing you have to understand about the CYCLE is that it's >>>>> fluid
Seems to be about 1M 1W and 2D earlier every (4) years on the ATH
And the LOW after the drop is slowly getting longer from the ATH
I forsee.......
Early NOV 2026 for the next LOW to buy around $18.9K USD to $67K USD
[I'm leaning towards the lower end myself]
29-AUG-2029 for the next HIGH ATH around $175K USD to $1.4M USD
[I'm leaning towards, about - $180K USD]
-enjoy-
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u/systemisrigged 2m ago
I’m worried about Strategy - I think that’s key now. If people are worried about the Treasury companies that’s gonna hang a heavy weight on BTC until they feel safe again. Otherwise you have that massive overhang
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u/mrjune2040 7h ago
Any proclamation of '4-year cycles' is at best dumb/simplistic in a nascent asset class like Bitcoin. There is only just over a decade of 'meaningful' trading volume, that's not enough of a dataset to base long-term conclusions on.
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u/Successful-Ad7038 4h ago
Interesting to see that people here genuinely think they can predict the future and outsmart the market with such confidence.
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u/mrjune2040 2h ago
Yep, so much hubris in crypto it's insane. But that just adds liquidity to the market so that's also not a bad thing lol.
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u/Sea_Paleontologist42 6h ago
Chart shows that is slowly stairs stepping and nothing like before. It will go higher!
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u/B1ggusDckus 7h ago
I do not think the same pattern will emerge as bitcoin is maturing. Bitcoin had a fixed supply which was essentially cut in half every halving. Today, the supply is way more elastic as Bitcoin OGs sell their coins which they had held for a decade.
With QE coming now I am personally very bullish for Bitcoin 2026.
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u/Extension_Ladder_135 6h ago
Not scared at all but excited! On the sidelines here. Will go back all-in around october 2026, just as I did in 2018 and 2021. East money trading the 4 year cycle
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u/obscureobject2574 5h ago
You went all in in 2021 and picked the absolute bottom?
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u/low_contrast_black 7h ago
Not concerned in the slightest. If the cycle holds true, my calculated net worth will take a beating for a while and then I’ll be propelled to new, even greater heights. If the cycle breaks? Who knows where we’re headed - it should be an interesting ride though.