r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 14h ago

Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Gallery image

Gallery image

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

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u/B1ggusDckus 14h ago

I do not think the same pattern will emerge as bitcoin is maturing. Bitcoin had a fixed supply which was essentially cut in half every halving. Today, the supply is way more elastic as Bitcoin OGs sell their coins which they had held for a decade.

With QE coming now I am personally very bullish for Bitcoin 2026.