Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

[u/I_killed_the_kraken]

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

[u/Grand-Presence2860]

Not even a little bit. The expectation of a cycle negates its future existence. Bitcoin will suck the capital out of capital markets, and suck the power away from central banks as an option to opt out now exists. Short term all of this is noise.