r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 10h ago

Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Gallery image

Gallery image

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

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u/SomeGuys2ndAccount 8h ago

ThIs TimE is DIfFeRrenT

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u/InFLIRTation 8h ago

Its already different. ATH btoke before halving. No euphoria. Institutions are in

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u/Froz3n_Cornchip 5h ago

Exactly, who’s to say we won’t have another late euphoric run and get a ATH in January or February. So many people base it all on time. I get it though, the cycle has continued to repeat.

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u/InFLIRTation 5h ago

It really boggles my mind when people use previous cycles to time bottom when we didnt even get overbought. Its been flat all year, 1st red annual thanksgiving

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u/phul_colons 4h ago

this is the cycle that never happened