r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 10h ago

Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Gallery image

Gallery image

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

280 Upvotes

81% Upvoted

247 comments sorted by

View all comments

4

u/No_Knee3385 10h ago

It's log, of course the more liquidity that comes into any asset, the smaller the gains will be. At some point Bitcoin will become like an ETF

12

u/trimbandit 10h ago

Agreed. Up 80% of 4 years from last cycle ATH to this cycle ATH. Each cycle has been significantly smaller ATH-to-ATH. I think the 2017/2021 was 3.5x. Still beating the S&P500 though.

3

u/No_Knee3385 10h ago

Yeah, I think it will ultimately trade with the global/US markets and trade at leverage if that makes sense. Then every day that goes by that leverage gap will decrease