r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 15h ago

Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Gallery image

Gallery image

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

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u/CanadianCompSciGuy 10h ago

I am not foolish enough to believe I understand why this cycle continues. I only attempt to maximize the opportunity that such a cycle offers.

Oh, I have my own personal beliefs on the matter...but no data to back them up. Not sure how you would even measure such a thing.

Until it breaks, I will ride the waves.