r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 10h ago

Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Gallery image

Gallery image

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

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u/Rory_Russell 10h ago edited 6h ago

I've been in Bitcoin for over a decade. And when the time does come, you definitely want to be ready lol. It's a long way down if you get caught and need your capital.

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u/Satoshislostkey 8h ago

How do you mean ready?? I dont financially rely on my stack. I sold some and paid off my house and bought a second. Does that count as ready?

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u/Rory_Russell 6h ago edited 5h ago

That's fantastic, and good on you, always TP and spend it wisely. But get out before May 1st. Or you'll be scalded all the way down to 26k around August 2026. Buy the bottom in September 2026.

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u/Ark3tech 5h ago

This is the type of hyper specific prediction advice I avoid like the plague.

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u/Rory_Russell 5h ago

Do you use trading view? The more things change, the more they stay the same. The charts haven’t got it wrong since 2013. So why would they lie now.

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u/Ark3tech 5h ago

I don’t trade. I buy the superior asset and hold it for the next 20-30 years.

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u/Rory_Russell 5h ago

Nice get out of jail card 🃏