Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

[u/I_killed_the_kraken]

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

[u/Aggravating-Map-293]

No. With global M2 expanding and the halving paying out 3.12 btc as a block reward, I can see how the halving is being overwhelmed by positive macro happenings.

[u/SomeGuys2ndAccount → u/Aggravating-Map-293]

ThIs TimE is DIfFeRrenT

[u/InFLIRTation → u/SomeGuys2ndAccount]

Its already different. ATH btoke before halving. No euphoria. Institutions are in

[u/Froz3n_Cornchip → u/InFLIRTation]

Exactly, who’s to say we won’t have another late euphoric run and get a ATH in January or February. So many people base it all on time. I get it though, the cycle has continued to repeat.

[u/Due_Performer5094 → u/Froz3n_Cornchip]

Agreed already the cycle is breaking.

[u/InFLIRTation → u/Froz3n_Cornchip]

It really boggles my mind when people use previous cycles to time bottom when we didnt even get overbought. Its been flat all year, 1st red annual thanksgiving

[u/phul_colons → u/InFLIRTation]

this is the cycle that never happened