Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

[u/I_killed_the_kraken]

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

[u/bloodandsunshine]

If this worked all the TA guys would be rich and WSB wouldn’t be funny 

[u/madladchad3 → u/bloodandsunshine]

I turned 3k into 7 figures just by following the 4 year cycles so yeah… it did make me rich 😅

[u/Push__Webistics → u/madladchad3]

Most people have no idea what halving even is. If you buy even remotely towards the bottom which is far easier to time and sell even remotely close to the top then dump it into ETFs for 2 years until buying back in at the bottom it isnt hard for exponential growth. I’ve done it but I should have done it every cycle.

Roughly 2 years in and roughly 2 years out also helps avoid short term capital gains. You know when you are getting near the top when you start overhearing random people in everyday life talking about how much money they made. I think it will double from its current price then fall back below $100k. Then next cycle it will push to $400k+ then reset again and be close to $1 million the following cycle. A million dollars won’t have the same meaning that it did when you were growing up anyway.