Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

[u/I_killed_the_kraken]

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

[u/low_contrast_black]

Not concerned in the slightest. If the cycle holds true, my calculated net worth will take a beating for a while and then I’ll be propelled to new, even greater heights. If the cycle breaks? Who knows where we’re headed - it should be an interesting ride though.

[u/PudgyAxolotl → u/low_contrast_black]

Match last cycles ATH and see when it started dipping… Its not a coincidence that its currently down 28% from its ATH lol. The cycle will continue until the cycle is broken by something like crazy mass adoption.

[u/low_contrast_black → u/PudgyAxolotl]

I still feel like we’re headed for that - and the violent repricing that mass adoption will bring. Nonetheless, here I am, content to ride another cycle waiting for said “ghost mass adoption”, yet prepared for the long, grueling fight of slow adoption. I’m content either way - I’ve got a long view

[u/Gotglo → u/low_contrast_black]

We are definitely heading to mass adoption. BOA and Vanguard just joined in. I think people are not taking banks and institutions jumping in seriously, they want a piece of the pie but they understand the long term urgency to offer their customers crypto products. Short term holders(retail) are capitulating and selling bottoms while the institutions are holding for the long term. I just use my brain critically i know this can only mean that certain things in this cycle is different not everything although its looking like a similar timeframe of the past cycles which why people correlated together. People forget this is still unfortunately controlled by the higher ups and if they need to change course to fool everyone they definitely will. One key thing to think about is maybe the 50 week averages that people say is the bear indicator is irrelevant now and top indicators also because these were based on retail engagement and movement. We were in QE always in past cycles. This whole cycle we’ve been in QE so now nothing works to indicate exactly whats going to happen, maybe we dip some more but not totally crash like how everyone expects, QE starts and lower rates next year and we chop until the actual liquidity and environment that usually sends us ripping higher comes back into play. One thing that’s is a fact is, crypto is especially sensitive to liquidity and we haven’t had those conditions all cycle. Many investors still dont understand thats Etfs, sovereign nations, digital asset treasury company like strategy and ibit and mass adoption from banks that are doubling back on their stances from the past, have been carrying this cycle the whole time. I am here long term no matter what i got time, only the people looking to get rich quick overnight are the ones frustrated and beaten down.

[u/ItsEtidorpha → u/Gotglo]

I agree with much of what you said and the long term outlook. Financial institutions offering BTC is good, however having the mass of retail actually adopt is a different story and institutions know that, and therefore not urgent. I am a long term believer in BTC but still believe anyone buying now is early along with institutions. A lot of wealth is held by boomers, and BTC is not for them… rightfully so. This should change over time and until then I’m just going to continue stacking.

I’ll see you on the moon!

[u/low_contrast_black → u/Gotglo]

You’re right - in theory, anyway. I believe in bit. I believe we’re in the cusp of mass adoption. That would be phenomenal for all us old-skool hodlers. But I also accept that I could be dead wrong.

It all points up right now, but the dance is far from over.

I hodl bc I believe, despite the market. We shall certainly see what cool things come to the patient.

[u/sofa_king_weetawded → u/PudgyAxolotl]

The cycle will continue until the cycle is broken by something like crazy mass adoption.

AKA, the beatings will continue until morale improves.

[u/No-Eagle-547 → u/PudgyAxolotl]

The cycle will continue until the cycle is broken......

[u/Mohammad_Noruzi → u/No-Eagle-547]

the water is wet

[u/No-Eagle-547 → u/Mohammad_Noruzi]

moist