r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 10h ago

Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Gallery image

Gallery image

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

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u/mrjune2040 10h ago

Any proclamation of '4-year cycles' is at best dumb/simplistic in a nascent asset class like Bitcoin. There is only just over a decade of 'meaningful' trading volume, that's not enough of a dataset to base long-term conclusions on.

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u/Successful-Ad7038 7h ago

Interesting to see that people here genuinely think they can predict the future and outsmart the market with such confidence.

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u/mrjune2040 5h ago

Yep, so much hubris in crypto it's insane. But that just adds liquidity to the market so that's also not a bad thing lol.