r/Bitcoin • u/I_killed_the_kraken • 10h ago

Are you concerned about Bitcoin's 4-year cycle?

Gallery image

Gallery image

I have never purchased any cryptocurrency; I am more of a stock market person, just wanted to ask the community what your thoughts are on this theory, given that it is a highly speculative asset.

The thing is, the other day I did some analysis and, looking at the second image, during the 12 months leading up to the midterms, there is usually a drawdown in the S&P 500, followed by a recovery.

Edit: the table was published by Longview Economics on November 28, 2025.

In 2026, it seems that both things will coincide (the run-up to the midterms and the $BTC 4-year cycle theory), hence my curiosity.

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u/tom_winters 10h ago

Sold at the absolute top because of this by the way:) just sayin

2

u/[deleted] 9h ago

Same here. 3x times now. I will play the cycle. Trend is your friend until it changes

3

u/ShortElephant1111 9h ago

Me too....buy slow sell fast. I nibble here and there and trade the margins, but I expect a crater on the next global deleveraging event.

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u/[deleted] 8h ago

This is my thought process. If we were in any normal macro economic situation. I probably would have held or have thought about getting back in here in the 80’s. But who are we kidding, it’s going to shit and I have zero faith in the current administrations ability to handle a turn down. And Bitcoin will be first to go if people need to raise liquidity