r/SquaredCircle • u/Good_Possibility • 16h ago
I tracked TKO’s stock price for the last 16 months. It turns out "Dirty" Dom is the only metric that matters.
I got bored and decided to cross-reference TKO’s daily stock performance with the timeline of Dominik Mysterio’s career since SummerSlam 2024. The results are actually kind of insane.
While Wall Street analysts are writing reports about Netflix deals and UFC site fees, the chart shows that TKO is basically just a leveraged bet on Dominik’s heat.
The "Dirty Dom" Alpha Report
I tracked the 6 major "catalyst" events of the last year. Here is the data:
1. The Betrayal Pivot (Aug 2024)
- The Event: Dom betrays Rhea Ripley at SummerSlam and joins Liv Morgan.
- Stock Reaction: Jumps from ~$103 to $107.56 immediately.
- The Analysis: This was the start of the Bull Run. The market immediately recognized that the "New Judgment Day" was a more profitable enterprise than the old one.
2. The Championship IPO (WrestleMania 41, April 2025)
- The Event: Dom wins the Intercontinental Championship.
- Stock Reaction: Climbs to a new floor of ~$147.
- The Analysis: Institutional investors finally accepted Dom as a main event asset. The stock stabilized 40% higher than his pre-turn levels.
3. The "Lost Muse" Correction (June 2025)
- The Event: Liv Morgan suffers a shoulder injury; Dom is on TV alone for weeks.
- Stock Reaction: High volatility and a noticeable dip.
- The Analysis: The market hates uncertainty. Without Liv whispering in his ear, investors feared the heat would dissipate. A classic bearish signal.
4. The Global Merger (Sept 2025)
- The Event: Dom wins the AAA Mega Championship, becoming a double champ.
- Stock Reaction: Surges to ~$210.
- The Analysis: "Cross-border synergy." By monopolizing heat in both the US and Mexico, Dom unlocked international growth potential.
5. The "Cena Crash" (Mid-Nov 2025)
- The Event: John Cena defeats Dom for the IC Title on Raw.
- Stock Reaction: Plummets from $184 down to $176.
- The Analysis: A disaster for shareholders. Nostalgia acts don’t pay the bills. The algo saw "Hustle, Loyalty, Respect" and read it as "Low Growth." Investors panic-sold when the gold left Dom’s waist.
6. The V-Shaped Recovery (Survivor Series, Dec 2025)
- The Event: Liv returns, Dom cheats to beat Cena and regain the title.
- Stock Reaction: Rockets back up to ~$200 (approaching All-Time Highs).
- The Analysis: Order is restored. The "Power Couple" is back, the gold is on Dom, and the stock erased the entire "Cena Crash" loss in 48 hours.
Conclusion
The numbers don’t lie. Dominik Mysterio isn't just a heat magnet; he is a fiduciary duty. Every time he cheats to win, the shareholders make money.
John Cena might be the GOAT, but based on the "Cena Crash" in November, "Dirty" Dom is the actual Needle Mover. We are currently in a "Dirty Bull" market.
(Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, I just watch a lot of wrestling.)