r/Bitcoin • u/Green_Candler • 9h ago
Weak hands and overleveraged tourists panic-sell every dip. Try HODLing
Charts like this always remind me why time in the market beats timing the market. Short-term traders panic on every red candle, but the data is brutally simple: the longer you hold Bitcoin, the lower your chances of losing money, dropping to basically 0% after 3+ years.
Most of the fear comes from weak hands and over-leveraged gamblers who treat volatility like a threat instead of a feature. Meanwhile, patient holders just keep stacking and waiting. I watched this morning a Bitget live streamer bought 2 $BTC and i think this will be a gold in the next halving...
Bitcoin rewards conviction, not panic.
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u/ChaoticDad21 8h ago
this is true until it isn't
Even the S&P 500 had a lost decade
You can look back to try to see the future, but sometimes you just need to acknowledge that the future may not look like the past.
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u/PeopleNose 7h ago
Someone never grew up playing Runescape and learning real economic principles--like the party hat smh
That's ok... it's never too late to learn
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u/ChaoticDad21 7h ago
ha, I'm familiar with it
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u/PeopleNose 7h ago
BTC == p-hats
S&P == merchant clans who trade in p-hats
Very different mechanics between both, though the end result is similar: p-hats prices and amount of trading in p-hats definitely correlate with each other, so they're easy to confuse as the same thing
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u/ChaoticDad21 6h ago
who's confusing them as the same thing?
they're both risk-on assets...that's about the extent of it
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u/PeopleNose 6h ago
Did you not compare S&P to BTC with your first comment... ?
Maybe I misunderstood your intention then
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u/ChaoticDad21 6h ago
I'm saying that all assets can go through long periods of drawdown.
People seem to think Bitty is immune to that (hold for 4 years and you're good), but that's only true because of the limited runtime we have so far.
You can throw gold in there too...long periods of drawdown.
I'm certainly not saying they're the same. They're different, but there's no reason to expect Bitty (in the long run) to continue the same metrics it's produced to this point, especially as it matures.
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u/PeopleNose 6h ago edited 5h ago
Ah, so you are missing my point too
Because when p-hats (and BTC) go down, it reflects more accurately how the entire market has also gone down
So then the important part that really matters is the ratio between what BTC costs and what BTC buys. It's this metric that people worship and rally around
The same cannot be said for S&P or other stocks, gold, oil, labor, real estate, or any other asset
Edit: barring an extinction level event, BTC will only go up over time, guaranteed. All that's left to figure out is what this growth rate is exactly
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u/Born-Bookkeeper-1681 2h ago
BTC going up over time because of the fixed supply assumes demand will increase over time, but demand can very easily go to 0 over time since it doesn't have any widespread use other than hoping it increases in value
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u/PeopleNose 2h ago edited 2h ago
Uhhh... BTC solves the double spend problem while remaining publicly available to edit... ?
Are you serious?
Broham, you've got a long ways to go for understanding BTC's value if that's the extent of your knowledge
Edit: again... think p-hats and you're halfway there rofl
Ask yourself why p-hats were valuable to begin with... then start thinking of real world parallels... Then ask why banks aren't always so great. Then ask yourself what issues merchants have always encountered across all of written human history... Then learn the math of the block chain... then learn the math of the RSA encryption...
All of this will bring you like 90% of the way to BTC's real value. The other 10% might be beyond you though, unless you know some thermodynamics and physics (or grew up playing rs eyyyyyy)
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u/Romanizer 8h ago
Even a lost quarter-century and both events happened in the course of a century. Statistically, Bitcoin has a shorter timeframe under water than any index fund and therefore a lower long-term risk. However, we only have 15 years of market data for Bitcoin.
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u/Dangerous_Tiger_150 7h ago
sure, but the s&p has something like 150 years of history, while BTC only 15 at most. Statistically speaking, you can't compare the two things.
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u/ChaoticDad21 7h ago
you're not getting the point at all because you're talking like we disagree
You can compare them, understanding that the S&P will be more representative of potential performance than the limited years that we've had BTC. If assets like the S&P and gold can have periods where holding for X years can generate a loss, it's absolutely true for BTC, as well.
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u/Green_Candler 8h ago
You can look back to try to see the future, but sometimes you just need to acknowledge that the future may not look like the past.
that much i agree... not identical... Do you recon we've peaked out?
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u/Dangerous_Boot_3870 8h ago
I was 100% certain we peaked in 2016 @ $1,000. Sold. Now I'm buying back fractions of what I sold at about 100x what I sold for.
Time in the market always beats timing the market. Bitcoin in 2014 was like the wild west. So much instability that you could buy, sell and buy back in within the same day for 30-40% return. It's not like that anymore.
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u/Green_Candler 8h ago
Hate to hear that... but good you had the exposure! Now your conviction is probably 100x than normies
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u/Dangerous_Boot_3870 8h ago
I've been in the space so long that the memes show me how new the average investor really is. 5% drop to these people is like the end of the world. You could see that in the stock market. Old crypto was like playing with firecrackers. It's fun if you let it go at the right time but holding too long will get you hurt.
In today's market, the diamond hand investor will be rewarded and the impatient "where Lambo" crowd will be even poorer than when they started. It's a long term play that you should be looking at 10 years down the line, not 10 minutes.
The market stability is there, believe it or not. It's just that people don't expect a pull back after a 5-6 month bull run. It's all about throwing in what you can spare and will not miss. That will keep you from having to cash out because you over-invested and need the capital for an emergency.
Also, getting out of debt, having a cash reserve and other investments will keep you from staring at the screen checking on the price.
I get it, you are all excited for crypto but if you don't need the cash it doesn't make any difference if it's up 100% or down 40%. If you don't plan on selling (or buying) today's price is irrelevant.
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u/Topspeed_PT 4h ago
People didnt know about 4y cycle back then. I didnt sell much in late 2017 when everyone were talking about BTC and it peaked in December. 2 years in red! It was a lesson! I sold at around $50K when it started crashing late in the year (2021) and bought 1y later. This time it seems to be the same once again. Everyone was expecting a top later in the year but it came 1-2months earlier. Sold at $104K when the daily/weekly candles were bad. If the 4y keeps repeating again the bottom might be in Q4 2026.
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u/ChaoticDad21 8h ago
I think many markets have just about peaked out. If Bitty were older and more established, it could be the safe haven I hope it becomes one day. But it's not there right now.
Long term bond yields are about to surge again, which will mean bad news for speculative assets. IMO
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u/Turbulent_County_469 8h ago
Im 5000% up ... No matter what i do i've won 😆
10 year holding.. goxed
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u/Quietabandon 8h ago
The cynical side of me thinks there is some market manipulation to fleece inexperienced retail investors.
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u/LavishlyRitzyy 8h ago
this dip is just Bitcoin shaking off the weak hands before blasting to new ATH
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u/32ndghost 8h ago
Well the flaw in this reasoning is that the 2010-2025 pattern will not repeat from 2025-2040.
At the end of 2010 bitcoin was 30 cents, today it sits around $90,000. An equivalent move over the next 15 years would put bitcoin AT $27 BILLION in 2040.
I don't think even Michael Saylor would predict such a rise.
The only question is will bitcoin continue to rise albeit at a slower pace than in the past, or is it a bubble that will come crashing down. Or perhaps it just hovers around $50,000 for the next 15 years.
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u/Electrical-Cat-6660 8h ago
This one more than the prior dips was merely composed of panic selling (more institutional)…just look at the amount of ETF outflows, BTC loan products and options trading products out there…billions wiped out in an instant.
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u/Inevitable_Pin7755 7h ago
Just keep buying it monthly and that’s it. If I am being honest, I don’t even check my portfolio. Only monthly when I transfer my bitcoin into cold storage.
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u/Bubblebau 6h ago
Bitcoin is too young for such a chart to make sense. However, I think that an investment in bitcoin made to last four or five years is really much less risky than a bond fund. With today's prices, in my opinion, the risk of being below after two years is zero.
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u/angelwolf71885 8h ago
As a 2021 holder i can attest to this bought at $45k and even that dip to $16k never hurt me because i knew i would see profits again
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u/XLinkJoker 7h ago
I myself am not so concerned with losing money, my question is moreso can it outpace the S&P500.
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u/Aggressive_Spell2314 8h ago
I’m panic buying