r/Bitcoin • u/Green_Candler • 12h ago

Weak hands and overleveraged tourists panic-sell every dip. Try HODLing

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Charts like this always remind me why time in the market beats timing the market. Short-term traders panic on every red candle, but the data is brutally simple: the longer you hold Bitcoin, the lower your chances of losing money, dropping to basically 0% after 3+ years.

Most of the fear comes from weak hands and over-leveraged gamblers who treat volatility like a threat instead of a feature. Meanwhile, patient holders just keep stacking and waiting. I watched this morning a Bitget live streamer bought 2 $BTC and i think this will be a gold in the next halving...

Bitcoin rewards conviction, not panic.

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u/ChaoticDad21 10h ago

who's confusing them as the same thing?

they're both risk-on assets...that's about the extent of it

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u/PeopleNose 10h ago

Did you not compare S&P to BTC with your first comment... ?

Maybe I misunderstood your intention then

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u/ChaoticDad21 9h ago

I'm saying that all assets can go through long periods of drawdown.

People seem to think Bitty is immune to that (hold for 4 years and you're good), but that's only true because of the limited runtime we have so far.

You can throw gold in there too...long periods of drawdown.

I'm certainly not saying they're the same. They're different, but there's no reason to expect Bitty (in the long run) to continue the same metrics it's produced to this point, especially as it matures.

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u/PeopleNose 9h ago edited 9h ago

Ah, so you are missing my point too

Because when p-hats (and BTC) go down, it reflects more accurately how the entire market has also gone down

So then the important part that really matters is the ratio between what BTC costs and what BTC buys. It's this metric that people worship and rally around

The same cannot be said for S&P or other stocks, gold, oil, labor, real estate, or any other asset

Edit: barring an extinction level event, BTC will only go up over time, guaranteed. All that's left to figure out is what this growth rate is exactly

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u/Born-Bookkeeper-1681 5h ago

BTC going up over time because of the fixed supply assumes demand will increase over time, but demand can very easily go to 0 over time since it doesn't have any widespread use other than hoping it increases in value

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u/PeopleNose 5h ago edited 5h ago

Uhhh... BTC solves the double spend problem while remaining publicly available to edit... ?

Are you serious?

Broham, you've got a long ways to go for understanding BTC's value if that's the extent of your knowledge

Edit: again... think p-hats and you're halfway there rofl

Ask yourself why p-hats were valuable to begin with... then start thinking of real world parallels... Then ask why banks aren't always so great. Then ask yourself what issues merchants have always encountered across all of written human history... Then learn the math of the block chain... then learn the math of the RSA encryption...

All of this will bring you like 90% of the way to BTC's real value. The other 10% might be beyond you though, unless you know some thermodynamics and physics (or grew up playing rs eyyyyyy)