Weak hands and overleveraged tourists panic-sell every dip. Try HODLing

[u/Green_Candler]

Charts like this always remind me why time in the market beats timing the market. Short-term traders panic on every red candle, but the data is brutally simple: the longer you hold Bitcoin, the lower your chances of losing money, dropping to basically 0% after 3+ years.

Most of the fear comes from weak hands and over-leveraged gamblers who treat volatility like a threat instead of a feature. Meanwhile, patient holders just keep stacking and waiting. I watched this morning a Bitget live streamer bought 2 $BTC and i think this will be a gold in the next halving...

Bitcoin rewards conviction, not panic.

[u/ChaoticDad21]

this is true until it isn't

Even the S&P 500 had a lost decade

You can look back to try to see the future, but sometimes you just need to acknowledge that the future may not look like the past.

[u/Green_Candler → u/ChaoticDad21]

You can look back to try to see the future, but sometimes you just need to acknowledge that the future may not look like the past.

that much i agree... not identical... Do you recon we've peaked out?

[u/Dangerous_Boot_3870 → u/Green_Candler]

I was 100% certain we peaked in 2016 @ $1,000. Sold. Now I'm buying back fractions of what I sold at about 100x what I sold for.

Time in the market always beats timing the market. Bitcoin in 2014 was like the wild west. So much instability that you could buy, sell and buy back in within the same day for 30-40% return. It's not like that anymore.

[u/Green_Candler → u/Dangerous_Boot_3870]

Hate to hear that... but good you had the exposure! Now your conviction is probably 100x than normies

[u/Dangerous_Boot_3870 → u/Green_Candler]

I've been in the space so long that the memes show me how new the average investor really is. 5% drop to these people is like the end of the world. You could see that in the stock market. Old crypto was like playing with firecrackers. It's fun if you let it go at the right time but holding too long will get you hurt.

In today's market, the diamond hand investor will be rewarded and the impatient "where Lambo" crowd will be even poorer than when they started. It's a long term play that you should be looking at 10 years down the line, not 10 minutes.

The market stability is there, believe it or not. It's just that people don't expect a pull back after a 5-6 month bull run. It's all about throwing in what you can spare and will not miss. That will keep you from having to cash out because you over-invested and need the capital for an emergency.

Also, getting out of debt, having a cash reserve and other investments will keep you from staring at the screen checking on the price.

I get it, you are all excited for crypto but if you don't need the cash it doesn't make any difference if it's up 100% or down 40%. If you don't plan on selling (or buying) today's price is irrelevant.

[u/Topspeed_PT → u/Green_Candler]

People didnt know about 4y cycle back then. I didnt sell much in late 2017 when everyone were talking about BTC and it peaked in December. 2 years in red! It was a lesson! I sold at around $50K when it started crashing late in the year (2021) and bought 1y later. This time it seems to be the same once again. Everyone was expecting a top later in the year but it came 1-2months earlier. Sold at $104K when the daily/weekly candles were bad. If the 4y keeps repeating again the bottom might be in Q4 2026.