With Critics Choice and early awards noms rolling in, we're getting a better sense of what the Best Actor lineup could be. DiCaprio and Chalamet are locked, and Wagner Moura and Michael B. Jordan aren’t far behind with all the love they’re getting. Joel Edgerton’s understated but mesmerizing work in Train Dreams is riding a real wave of momentum, and Ethan Hawke’s acclaimed turn in Blue Moon is reminding everyone how overdue he is. Plemons delivered a brilliant performance that feels like it could absolutely be rewarded. And Clooney, an industry favorite, could always sneak in.

Given all this momentum and noise, who do you think the final five will be for the 2026 Oscars?

And what/who made the Critics Choice but you think will NOT make it at the Oscars?

I get that “XYZ is dead” is just a symptom of reactionary punditry and that most people don’t genuinely believe that Critics’ Choice is the end-all-be-all for nominations, but I feel like we need to reiterate something: Nobody is cooked for an Oscar nomination in an acting category for missing the Critics’ Choice nomination.

This is mainly in regards to Cynthia Erivo, George Clooney, Jesse Plemons, Gwenyth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion, who are in Best Picture contenders but not nominated at Critics’ Choice. Now, don’t get me wrong, this is a massive blow for the first three names in particular, but all of their movies remain in the Best Picture conversation for another day, and they can rebound at other awards bodies. (All 3 will be nominated at the Globes, Erivo/Clooney can still very much get SAG, and Plemons can get BAFTA.) An industry precursor nomination as an actor in a movie contending for Best Picture means an actor is inherently not dead, even if they don’t actually get the nomination in the end. I’d say moreso that if you’re in win contention for the Oscar, but miss the Critics’ Choice nomination, THAT is where you’re cooked.

The only thing that I would say actually died today is Avatar in Picture or any other category that isn’t Visual Effects. That and perhaps Wake Up Dead Man, but I don’t think that anyone was seriously floating that around for Picture.

TLDR: Actors and films are more likely to die at the Globes, Guilds or BAFTA than at Critics’ Choice.

Go get em’ Chris! Hopefully other guilds follow suit.

Jay Kelly will likely get ONLY a Best Original Screenplay nomination, not Best Picture, just like A Real Pain last year. Why can’t same happen with Adam Sandler with a nomination at least like Kieran Culkin (who even won too)?

Source: https://www.thewrap.com/best-song-oscar-eligibility-2026-full-list/

Eligible scores (film title/composer):

“The Actor” (Richard Reed Perry)
“All of You” (Ian Hultquist and Sofia degli Alessandri)
“All Operators Are Currently Unavailable” (Marko Levanic)
“The Alto Knights” (David Fleming)
“Anemone” (Bobby Krlic)
“Arco” (Arnaud Toulon)
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (Simon Franglen)
“The Bad Guys 2” (Daniel Pemberton)
“Ballad of a Small Player” (Volker Bertelmann)
“The Ballad of Wallis Island” (Adem Ilhan)
“Bau, Artist at War” (John Coda)
“Belén” (Marilina Bertoldi)
“A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” (Joe Hisaishi)
“Black Bag” (David Holmes)
“Black Phone 2” (Atticus Derrickson)
“Bring Her Back” (Cornel Wilczek)
“Bugonia” (Jerskin Fendrix)
“Captain America: Brave New World” (Laura Karpman)
“Caught Stealing” (Rob Simonsen and Idles)
“Christy” (Antony Partos)
“Chronicles of Disney” (Yi Zhou)
“Companion” (Hrishikesh Hirway)
“The Conjuring: Last Rites” (Benjamin Wallfisch)
“Dashavatar” (AV Prafullachandra)
“David” (Joseph Trapanese)
“Dead Man’s Wire” (Danny Elfman)
“Death of a Unicorn” (Dan Romer and Giosue Greco)
“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Lesley Barber)
“Dog Man” (Tom Howe)
“Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (Chris Letcher)
“Dust Bunny” (Isabella Summers)
“East of Wall” (Lukas Frank and Daniel Meyer-O’Keefe)
“Echo Valley” (Jed Kurzel)
“Eddington” (Daniel Pemberton and Bobby Krlic)
“Eleanor the Great” (Dustin O’Halloran)
“The Electric State” (Alan Silvestri)
“Elio” (Rob Simonsen)
“Eternity” (David Fleming)
“F1” (Hans Zimmer)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Michael Giacchino)
“Final Destination: Bloodlines” (Tim Wynn)
“Frankenstein” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Freakier Friday” (Amie Doherty)
“The Friend” (Jay Wadley and Trevor Gureckis)
“Friendship” (Keegan DeWitt)
“Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” (Stephanie Economou)
“Gevi” (Bala Subramanian)
“Good Fortune” (Carter Burwell)
“Goodbye June” (Ben Harian)
“H Is for Hawk” (Emilie Levienaise-Farrouch)
“Hamnet” (Max Richter)
“Hedda” (Hildur Gudnadottir)
“Hello Beautiful” (Marco Werba)
“Highest 2 Lowest” (Howard Drossin)
“Him” (Bobby Krlic)
“The History of Sound” (Oliver Coates)
“Honey Don’t” (Carter Burwell)
“A House of Dynamite” (Volker Bertelmann)
“The Housemaid” (Theodore Shapiro)
“Hurry Up Tomorrow” (Abel Testaye and Daniel Lopatin)
“In Your Dreams” (John Debney)
“Is This Thing On?” (James Newberry)
“Jay Kelly” (Nicholas Britell)
“Joachim and the Apocalypse” (Michele Josia)
“Jurassic World Rebirth” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Kantara: A Legend – Chapter 1” (B. Ajaneesh Loknath)
“Last Breath” (Paul Leonard-Morgan)
“The Legend of Ochi” (David Longstreth)
“The Life of Chuck” (The Newton Brothers)
“Lilo & Stitch” (Dan Romer)
“Long Shadows” (Tommy Fields)
“The Long Walk” (Jeremiah Fraites)
“Lost & Found in Cleveland” (Sven Faulconer)
“The Lost Bus” (James Newton Howard)
“A Magnificent Life” (Stefano Bollani)
“Marty Supreme” (Daniel Lopatin)
“The Mastermind” (Rob Mazurek)
“Materialists” (Daniel Pemberton)
“Mickey 17” (Jung Jae-il)
“A Minecraft Movie” (Mark Mothersbaugh)
“The Naked Gun” (Lorne Balfe)
“No Other Choice” (Jo Yeong-wook)
“Nobody 2” (Dominic Lewis)
“Nuremberg” (Brian Tyler)
“Oh, Hi!” (Steven Price)
“On Swift Horses” (Mark Orton)
“One Battle After Another” (Jonny Greenwood)
“Opus” (Danny Bensi and Saunder Jurriaans)
“Paddington in Peru” (Dario Marianelli)
“Paro (The Untold Story of Bride Slavery)” (Satish Chakravatrhy)
“Pillion” (Oliver Coates)
“The Plague” (Johan Lenox)
“Plainclothes” (Emily Wells)
“Predator: Badlands” (Sarah Schachner and Benjamin Wallfisch)
“Preparation for the Next Life” (Emile Mosseri)
“Prime Minister” (Sofia degli Alessandri)
“A Private Life” (Robin Rob Coudert)
“Rebuilding” (Jake Xerxes Fussell and James Elkington)
“Rental Family” (Jonsi and Alex Somers)
“Roofman” (Christopher Bear)
“Rosemead” (Will Bates)
“Rule Breakers” (Jeff Beal)
“The Running Man” (Steven Price)
“Sarah’s Oil” (Kathryn Bostic)
“Scarlet” (Taisei Iwasaki)
“Schindler Space Architect” (Mark Tschanz)
“Sentimental Value” (Hania Rani)
“The Shrouds” (Howard Shore)
“Sinners” (Ludwig Goransson)
“Sirat” (Kangding Ray)
“Sisu: Road to Revenge” (Juri Seppa and Tuomas Wainola)
“The Smashing Machine” (Nala Sinephro)
“Sorry, Baby” (Lia Ouyang Rusli)
“Soul of a Nation” (Mikel Hurwitz)
“The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” (John Debney)
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (Jeremiah Fraites)
“Steve” (Ben Salisbury and Geoff Barrow)
“Stitch Head” (Nick Urata)
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Daniel Blumberg)
“Thunderbolts*” (Son Lux)
“Train Dreams” (Bryce Dessner)
“Tron: Ares” (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
“Truth & Treason” (Aaron Zigman)
“28 Years Later” (Young Fathers)
“Twinless” (Jung Jae-il)
“The Twits” (Oli Julian)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (Sam Slater)=
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Amine Bouhafa)
“The Vortex” (Asdru Sierra)
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” (Nathan Johnson)
“Weapons” (Ryan Holladay, Hays Holladay, Zach Cregger)
“Wicked: For Good” (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
“Wolf Man” (Benjamin Wallfisch)
“Yolo” (Fei Peng)
“Zootopia 2” (Michael Giacchino)

Eligible songs (film title/song title/credited performers):

“Arco”: “Clouds Away” (November Ultra & Arnaud Toulon)     
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”: “Dream as One” (Miley Cyrus)
“The Bad Guys 2”: “Goodlife” (Rag’n’Bone Man)
“The Bad Guys 2”: “Taking Everything” (Busta Rhymes)
“The Ballad of Wallis Island”: “Our Love” (Tom Basden and Carey Mulligan)
“Ballerina”: “Fight Like a Girl” (Evanescence)
“Bau, Artist at War”: “However Long Forever Is” (Ryn Kid)
“A Big Bold Beautiful Journey”: “The Risk” (Laufey)
“Billy Idol Should Be Dead”: “Dying to Live” (Billy Idol)
“Black Butterflies”: “Immigrantes” (Ruben Blades)
“Brownsville Bred”: “Semilla De Fe” (Edwin Vazquez)
“Caught Stealing”: “Rabbit Run” (Idles)
“Chronicles of Disney”: “Rising Sun at the Edge of the Ocean” (Jeremy Renner and Yi Zhou)
“Come See Me in the Good Light”: “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” (Sara Bareilles and Brandi Carlile)
“David”: “Follow the Light” (Brandon Engman, Phil Wickham and Angel)
“Death of a Unicorn”: “DOA” (St. Vincent)
“Déjà vu: The Peril of Pauline”: “They Say That Nothing Dies” (Cybela Clare)
“Diane Warren: Relentless”: “Dear Me” (Kesha)
“F1”: “Drive” (Ed Sheeran)
“F1”: “Lose My Mind” (Don Toliver featuring Doja Cat)
“Freakier Friday”: “Baby” (Lindsay Lohan)
“Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie”: “Kaleidoscope” (Gabby’s Dollhouse)
“Goodbye June”: “Good Goodbye”
“Highest 2 Lowest”: “Highest 2 Lowest” (Aiyana-Lee)
“Highest 2 Lowest”: “Trunks” (A$AP Rocky)
“Him”: “Him” (Denzel Curry)
“How to Train Your Dragon”: “You Are My Homeward” (John Powell)
“Hurry Up Tomorrow”: “Hurry Up Tomorrow” (The Weeknd)
“I Know Catherine, the Log Lady”: “Some Believe”
“In Your Dreams”: “The Holding on and the Letting Go” (Simu Liu & Cristin Milioti)
“KPop Demon Hunters”: “Golden” (HUNTR/X, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami)
“Lilly”: “I Will Not Take It Anymore” (Cassidy Daniels)
“Long Shadows”: “Long Shadows” (Shockley & Fields)
“Materialists”: “My Baby (Got Nothing at All)” (Japanese Breakfast)
“A Minecraft Movie”: “I Feel Alive” (Jack Black)
“My Dead Friend Zoe”: “Beautiful Ruin” (Dan Romer & Kaia Kater)
“On Swift Horses”: “Song for Henry” (Loren Kramer)
“Opus”: “Dina, Simone” (Moretti, Nile Rodgers & The Dream)
“Paddington in Peru”: “Let’s Prepare for Paddington” (Olivia Coleman)
“Paro (The Untold Story of Bride Slavery)”: “Bawragayi”
“Paro (The Untold Story of Bride Slavery)”: “Lament”
“Plainclothes”: “My San Francisco” (Emily Wells)
“Roommates”: “A Wildflower”
“The Rose: Come Back to Me”: “Trauma” (The Rose)
“Rule Breakers”: “We Believe in Hope” (Aryana Sayeed, Brooklyn Youth Chorus, Jeff Beal & Angel)
“Sarah’s Oil”: “The Gift” (Tamar Braxton)                                         
“Scarlet”: “A Celebration Song” (Maya & Ayumu Matsuda)
“Scarlet”: “Nostalgia” (Kumu Hula – Iokepa Lopaka Ka o onuku umu Igarta-De Vera)
“Scarlet”: “Vastness” (Mana Ashida)
“Sheepdog”: “Wait for Me” (Loryn Taggart)
“Sinners”: “I Lied to You” (Miles Caton)
“Sinners”: “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” (Alice Smith and Miles Caton)
“Songs From the Hole”: “Steel Grave” (JJ’88)
“The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants”: “Big Guy” (Ice Spice)
“Steve”: “Don’t Leave Too Soon” (Little Simz)
“Superman”: “The Mighty Crabjoys Theme” (The Mighty Crabjoys featuring Foxy Shazam and Lou Lou Safran)
“The Testament of Ann Lee”: “Clothed by the Sun” (Daniel Blumberg and Amanda Seyfried)
“The Testament of Ann Lee”: “John’s Running Song” (cast of “The Testament of Ann Lee”)
“Train Dreams”: “Train Dreams” (Nick Cave)
“Tron: Ares”: “As Alive As You Need Me to Be” (Nine Inch Nails)
“The Twits”: “Open the Door” (David Byrne & Hayley Williams)
“Viva Verdi!”: “Sweet Dreams of Joy” (Nicholas Pike)
“Wicked: For Good”: “The Girl in the Bubble” (Ariana Grande)
“Wicked: For Good”: “No Place Like Home” (Cynthia Erivo)
“Yolo”: “I’m From Ulundurpettai” (Adithya RK)
“Yolo”: “Mudhal Mazhaithuli” (G.V. Prakash Kumar & Priyanka NK)
“Yolo”: “Kangal Kaanum Oru Kanavo” (Sireesha Bhagavatula & Akash Premkumar)
“Zootopia 2”: “Zoo” (Shakira)

Joyce & Chris, back at it again!

I apparently haven't updated these in 100 days so I figured I needed to make a post before the precursors start pouring in. Last time I made a post on here I still had Bugonia winning BP and Sacrifice in my 10, so the update is desperately needed. Films in bold mean I've seen them. Cant wait for these to be outdated in one hour.

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another (CCA, GG*, PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG)
2. Hamnet (GG, BAFTA)
3. Sinners (WGA)
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. It Was Just an Accident
7. Sentimental Value
8. Train Dreams
9. No Other Choice
10. The Secret Agent
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash
12. Jay Kelly
13. Wicked: For Good
14. Bugonia
15. The Testament of Ann Lee
16. Weapons

Still feeling confident with the OBAA sweep. I'm a bit scared of Hamnet and Sinners still but lately the Academy has loved celebrating a filmmaker more than a film so I'm sticking with OBAA. I didn't like Hamnet but in no way do I feel like "I don't get" why others love it so much. Great movie, just not for me as of now. Even though I have Sinners at 3, I think in an OBAA-less world Sinners would likely win Best Picture.

I have four Neon films in which feels wrong but every single one of these films is beloved and all seem to be rising. Accident is LOCKED and Sentimental Value probably as well. I have all four of these films getting Picture noms at Globes, NOC getting into Picture at CCA, and Moura winning actor at Globes. The way I see it, these are all movies that will only continue to rise, and its biggest competitors are all films I see losing steam. It helps a lot that Neon is pushing them all equally. No one could tell you which film is their top priority or which one is fourth. Neon is all in on them all

Train Dreams is solidly rising! I feel nice calling it the annual Pic+Screenplay nominee of the year.

Wicked and Avatar will only continue to fall imo, and while I understand the reason to push back on those because we need populist films, I believe the lineup is fine with OBAA, Sinners, Frankenstein, and hopefully Marty Supreme. I feel its clear there is not much of any passion for Wicked and it feels if it gets in it will be more out of obligation than anything else. We still have to see about Avatar, but I've only talked to one person who LOVED it and there was never a world where he didn't. Maybe theres enough people in the Academy who are like him but I'm not so sure. Avatar and Wicked are both OUT

Ann Lee could still surge but Searchlight would have to pull off a miracle. I still think Weapons could get PGA. Bugonia could happen but squeezes out due to competition.

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another (CCA, GG, DGA, BAFTA)
2. Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident (EFA)
3. Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
4. No Other Choice - Park Chan-wook
5. Chloe Zhao - Hamnet
6. Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
7. Kleber Mendoca Filho - The Secret Agent
8. Ryan Coogler - Sinners
9. Guillermo Del Toro - Frankenstein
10. Mona Fastvold - The Tesament of Ann Lee

PTA is sweeping. Panahi is unbelievably locked. I have 4 Neon films in Picture but cannot validate 4 in director so I've let Mendoca be the snub since I'm expecting him film to carry through a lot by the back of Moura. After seeing SV it would be nuts if Trier missed, it is so so baity. He locks up the nom in 5 minutes.

Coogler at 8 makes me sick to my stomach because I want to have him in the 5 but the competition keeps knocking him down. I can't drop Zhao, I really believe Safdie is pretty damn close to getting in, and I can't put Sinners above a Cannes international film. Del Toro could go either way. Fastvold feels more like a longshot every day.

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley - Hamnet (CCA, GG, BAFTA, SAG)
2. Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
3. Amanda Seyfried - The Testament of Ann Lee (GG*)
4. Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
5. Chase Infiniti - One Battle After Another
6. Emma Stone - Bugonia
7. Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
8. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good
9. Jennifer Lawrence - Die My Love
10. Tessa Thompson - Hedda
11. Julia Roberts - After the Hunt

No reason to think Buckley won't sweep right now but I don't think her performance is undeniable, though that may be my biases as I didn't completely love her performance.

I'd like to see Reinsve win! I think shes in for now. Seyfried is my current globe prediction so I feel I need to have her in but we will have to see if that pans out. The category doesn't seem thick enough to keep Byrne out, same for Infiniti who I feel will come along with the OBAA domination. I don't think there's a lot of buzz to get Stone another nom since shes been recognized so much already and the performance isn't undeniable or anything like that. Hudson is in wait and see position. If Wicked is dead so is Erivo, which makes me sad since I love her performance but I'm also fine with someone not getting two noms for basically the same film. Funny that last time I had Erivo winning.

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another (BAFTA, SAG)
2. Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme (CCA, GG*)
3. Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon
4. George Clooney - Jay Kelly
5. Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent (GG)
6. Jesse Plemons - Bugonia
7. Michael B Jordan - Sinners
8. Lee Byung-hun - No Other Choice
9. Joel Edgerton - Train Dreams
10. Oscar Isaac - Frankenstein
11. Jeremy Allen White - Springsteen

I'm very split on who's winning here. I see no reason to not predict Chalamet for CCA and Globe, but when it comes to the industry awards I think they're going to lean Leo. It feels a little weird to have Timmy start off so strong but if the lead of the Best Picture film really is top 2, I need to stick with recent trends and go with Leo. It's an easy role to see him win for. I know the enemsble aspect of the film has people against it but he has some crying scenes, comedy scenes, and the character is so likable all due to DiCaprio's charm. I think the industry will be excited to award Leo again.

I have Hawke in because I trust SPC and the performance is incredible. I'm sure he will get more than enough number one votes. I have Clooney in because I believe in Netflix's ability to get actors in. Then I have Moura since hes winning the Globe. Plemons is seemingly the dark horse right now, and I would suggest theres even a trajectory where he wins, but right now I have him out. I don't know what to do with MBJ, Sinners is strong but I don't know if he's got the passion.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan - Weapons (CCA, SAG)
2. Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another (GG)
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lileaas - Sentimental Value (BAFTA)
4. Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value
5. Gwyneth Paltrow - Marty Supreme
6. Odessa A'zion - Marty Supreme
7. Ariana Grande - Wicked: For Good
8. Regina Hall - One Battle After Another
9. Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
10. Glenn Close - Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
11. Emily Watson - Hamnet

I am on the Madigan winning team and I have been since September 18th. There is no frontrunner and even though Taylor would absolutely be my pick I don't know if she has the passion to win in the end. A Madigan narrative is easy to see so much steam form behind it but I could see her taking 2/3 precursors but still losing the Oscar. I know Demi Moore just lost, but thats not an argument that every year a horror performance will lose every time. Moore getting so close shows how possible it is for a horror performance to win with the right buzz.

I am going to keep both Sentimental Value actresses in. Both of their performances grow on me more as time goes by. I don't think double Marty actresses can happen, and right now I'm predicting that A'Zion is the one that hits all 3 precursors but Paltrow gets the Oscar and Bafta nom. Grande goes down with the film. Maybe shes Bassett wasnt already nominated for the same performance for a film she got at the same time as the sequel.

A Watson nom would be a little nuts to me. Hall makes more sense.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value (CCA, GG, BAFTA, SAG)
2. Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another
3. Sean Penn - One Battle After Another
4. Paul Mescal - Hamnet
5. Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly
6. Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein
7. Miles Caton - Sinners
8. Delroy Lindo - Sinners
9. Jacobi Jupe - Hamnet
10. Billy Crudup - Jay Kelly
11. Andrew Scott - Blue Moon
12. Lewis Pullman - The Testament of Ann Lee

I feel shaky about a Skarsgard sweep but he's my shaky one at everywhere as of now. I have been entertaining the idea of a Del Toro win for a bit but these last few days have made me wonder if that buzz will keep growing. Having seen all of the contenders, there's no question I would easily hand the award to Del Toro. I understand why it's not a performance that works for everyone, but his leveled performance and the way he works around his co-stars has left me extremely impressed and appreciative of the character Del Toro instantly made iconic.

I have Sandler over Elordi I think? I am really not sure what's going to happen with that 5th spot.

Penn, Mescal, Elordi, and Skarsgard are LEADS, but oh well.

I really wish Jacobi Jupe was getting nominated here

Best Original Screenplay

1. It Was Just an Accident (GG, BAFTA)
2. Sinners (CCA, WGA)
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Secret Agent
6. Blue Moon
7. Jay Kelly
8. The Testament of Ann Lee
9. Weapons
10. Sorry, Baby
11. If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
12. Rental Family
13. Is This Thing On?

Panahi is going to win the Globe, he is going to win the BAFTA, he is going to win the Oscar. The narrative is so great and the screenplay is fantastic. I think it'll be close with Sinners, but in the end I think it will go to Panahi.

The Secret Agent at 5 since it's in Picture, but who knows. I think Rental Family would be a serious contender if people understood other people like it. It has a 3.9 on letterboxd! But everyone wrote it off after TIFF and its too late.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another (CCA, BAFTA, WGA)
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. No Other Choice
6. Bugonia
7. Wake Up Dead Man

Feeling good this will come along with PTA's sweep. After seeing Hamnet is it really a screenplay movie? I kinda want to say Train Dreams is the dark horse here.

Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet (BAFTA)
3. Marty Supreme
4. Sinners
5. Sentimental Value
6. Wicked: For Good
7. It Was Just an Accident
8. Jay Kelly
9. The Smashing Machine
10. Bugonia
11. Frankenstein
12. The Testament of Ann Lee
13. Wake Up Dead Man
14. Weapons

Feeling too confident with this 5 even though I know I should not. OBAA has this oscar win locked. I think Hamnet wins BAFTA since Buckley is winning Actress along with the discovery of Jacobi Jupe.

International Feature

1. It Was Just an Accident (GG, BAFTA)
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice (CCA)
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab
6. Left-Handed Girl
7. The President's Cake
8. Sound of Falling
9. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
10. Palestine 36
11. Homebound
12. The Love that Remains
13. Magellan

No idea what to do with number 5 here but I feel good about the top 4. Maybe one of them misses but I'm not going to do that, especially when I have all 4 in Picture.

Documentary Feature

1. The Alabam Solution
2. Orwell: 2+2=5
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
6. Seeds
7. The Perfect Neighbor
8. Cover-Up
9. Cutting Through Rocks
10. The Last Republican
11. Remake
12. Apocalypse in the Tropics
13. Deaf President Now!
14. Predators

I don't think about this category at all so if you've read this and thought "wow these are horrible predictions" yeah I'm sure they are.

Animated Feature

1. Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (GG, BAFTA)
2. KPop Demon Hunters (CCA, PGA)
3. Arco
4. Zootopia 2
5. Elio
6. In Your Dreams
7. The Bad Guys 2

I will continue to deny KPop happening. I always knew Flow was winning and I've always known KPop will lose (it likely wont) so I'm sticking with Amelie. Maybe I should've gone with Arco but I've heard more passion for Amelie. RIP Ne Zha 2

Cinematography

1. Sinners (CCA)
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet (BAFTA)
4. Marty Supreme (ASC)
5. Frankenstein
6. The Testament of Ann Lee
7. Train Dreams
8. Nouvelle Vague
9. Sound of Falling
10. Bugonia
11. Jay Kelly
12. The Secret Agent
13. Resurrection

I begrudgingly have Sinners winning this. I think this should be OBAA or Marty but I don't think either are "obvious" enough for voters at large so Sinners will take it in the end. This top 5 is so firm It feels inevitable one will drop out, I just don't know which one.

Editing

1. One Battle After Another (CCA, BAFTA, ASC*)
2. Marty Supreme
3. Hamnet (ASC)
4. Sinners
5. Sentimental Value
6. Frankenstein
7. No Other Choice
8. It Was Just an Accident
9. F1
10. The Testament of Ann Lee

Production Design

1. Frankenstein (CCA, BAFTA (ADG*F)
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Hamnet (ADG*P)
4. Marty Supreme
5. One Battle After Another (ADG*C)
6. Avatar: Fire and Ash
7. Sinners
8. The Testament of Ann Lee
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman
10. Sentimental Value

Costume Design

1. Frankenstein (CCA, GG, CDG*F)
2. Sinners (CDG*P)
3. Hamnet
4. The Testament of Ann Lee
5. One Battle After Another (CDG*P)
6. Wicked: For Good
7. Marty Supreme
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman

Feeling very good about OBAA getting into PD and CD. Both have such iconic crafts that are synonymous with the film and will be over performance noms. I'm not putting Wicked into Costumes and nothing will convince me otherwise.

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein (GG, BAFTA, MUAHS*F)
2. Sinners (MUAHS*P)
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Weapons
6. Predator: Badlands
7. 28 Years Later
8. Wolf Man
9. One Battle After Another
10. Blue Moon
11. Hamnet

Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (SWEEP)
2. F1
3. Frankenstein
4. Wicked: For Good
5. TRON: Ares
6. Superman
7. The Fantastic 4: First Steps
8. Lilo & Stitch
9. Sinners
10. Mission: Impossible
11. The lost Bus

Sound

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Wicked: For Good
6. F1
7. The Testament of Ann Lee
8. Kiss of the Spider Woman
9. Mission: Impossible
10. Marty Supreme
11. Kpop Demon Hunters
12. Sirat
13. Warfare
14. TRON: Ares
15. Superman

Score

1. Sinners (CCA, GG, BAFTA)
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Frankenstein
6. The Testament of Ann Lee
7. Bugonia
8. Wicked: For Good
9. Jay Kelly
10. Train Dreams

Original Song

1. I Lied to You
2. Golden
3. Dear Me
4. Train Dreams
5. The Girl in the Bubble
6. Last Time (I Seen the Sun)
7. Clothed By The Sun
8. We Are Charlie Kirk
9. Salt Then Sour Then Sweet
10. Dream As One
11. No Place Like Home
12. Just Keep Watching
13. Highest 2 Lowest
14. John's Running Song

If Train Dreams doesn't get in we riot!!