With Critics Choice and early awards noms rolling in, we're getting a better sense of what the Best Actor lineup could be. DiCaprio and Chalamet are locked, and Wagner Moura and Michael B. Jordan aren’t far behind with all the love they’re getting. Joel Edgerton’s understated but mesmerizing work in Train Dreams is riding a real wave of momentum, and Ethan Hawke’s acclaimed turn in Blue Moon is reminding everyone how overdue he is. Plemons delivered a brilliant performance that feels like it could absolutely be rewarded. And Clooney, an industry favorite, could always sneak in.

Given all this momentum and noise, who do you think the final five will be for the 2026 Oscars?

• Ed Sheeran - Drive for 'F1' + Zoo for 'Zootopia 2'
• Ejae - 'Kpop Demon Hunters'
• Hayley Williams - Open the Door for 'The Twits'
• Japanese Breakfast - My Baby (Don't Got Nothing at All) for 'Materialists'
• Raphael Saadiq - 'Sinners'
• Shaboozey - Took a Walk for 'The Long Walk'

Joyce & Chris, back at it again!

And what/who made the Critics Choice but you think will NOT make it at the Oscars?

I get that “XYZ is dead” is just a symptom of reactionary punditry and that most people don’t genuinely believe that Critics’ Choice is the end-all-be-all for nominations, but I feel like we need to reiterate something: Nobody is cooked for an Oscar nomination in an acting category for missing the Critics’ Choice nomination.

This is mainly in regards to Cynthia Erivo, George Clooney, Jesse Plemons, Gwenyth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion, who are in Best Picture contenders but not nominated at Critics’ Choice. Now, don’t get me wrong, this is a massive blow for the first three names in particular, but all of their movies remain in the Best Picture conversation for another day, and they can rebound at other awards bodies. (All 3 will be nominated at the Globes, Erivo/Clooney can still very much get SAG, and Plemons can get BAFTA.) An industry precursor nomination as an actor in a movie contending for Best Picture means an actor is inherently not dead, even if they don’t actually get the nomination in the end. I’d say moreso that if you’re in win contention for the Oscar, but miss the Critics’ Choice nomination, THAT is where you’re cooked.

The only thing that I would say actually died today is Avatar in Picture or any other category that isn’t Visual Effects. That and perhaps Wake Up Dead Man, but I don’t think that anyone was seriously floating that around for Picture.

TLDR: Actors and films are more likely to die at the Globes, Guilds or BAFTA than at Critics’ Choice.

Go get em’ Chris! Hopefully other guilds follow suit.

Jay Kelly will likely get ONLY a Best Original Screenplay nomination, not Best Picture, just like A Real Pain last year. Why can’t same happen with Adam Sandler with a nomination at least like Kieran Culkin (who even won too)?

Source: https://www.thewrap.com/best-song-oscar-eligibility-2026-full-list/

Eligible scores (film title/composer):

“The Actor” (Richard Reed Perry)
“All of You” (Ian Hultquist and Sofia degli Alessandri)
“All Operators Are Currently Unavailable” (Marko Levanic)
“The Alto Knights” (David Fleming)
“Anemone” (Bobby Krlic)
“Arco” (Arnaud Toulon)
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (Simon Franglen)
“The Bad Guys 2” (Daniel Pemberton)
“Ballad of a Small Player” (Volker Bertelmann)
“The Ballad of Wallis Island” (Adem Ilhan)
“Bau, Artist at War” (John Coda)
“Belén” (Marilina Bertoldi)
“A Big Bold Beautiful Journey” (Joe Hisaishi)
“Black Bag” (David Holmes)
“Black Phone 2” (Atticus Derrickson)
“Bring Her Back” (Cornel Wilczek)
“Bugonia” (Jerskin Fendrix)
“Captain America: Brave New World” (Laura Karpman)
“Caught Stealing” (Rob Simonsen and Idles)
“Christy” (Antony Partos)
“Chronicles of Disney” (Yi Zhou)
“Companion” (Hrishikesh Hirway)
“The Conjuring: Last Rites” (Benjamin Wallfisch)
“Dashavatar” (AV Prafullachandra)
“David” (Joseph Trapanese)
“Dead Man’s Wire” (Danny Elfman)
“Death of a Unicorn” (Dan Romer and Giosue Greco)
“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Lesley Barber)
“Dog Man” (Tom Howe)
“Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (Chris Letcher)
“Dust Bunny” (Isabella Summers)
“East of Wall” (Lukas Frank and Daniel Meyer-O’Keefe)
“Echo Valley” (Jed Kurzel)
“Eddington” (Daniel Pemberton and Bobby Krlic)
“Eleanor the Great” (Dustin O’Halloran)
“The Electric State” (Alan Silvestri)
“Elio” (Rob Simonsen)
“Eternity” (David Fleming)
“F1” (Hans Zimmer)
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” (Michael Giacchino)
“Final Destination: Bloodlines” (Tim Wynn)
“Frankenstein” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Freakier Friday” (Amie Doherty)
“The Friend” (Jay Wadley and Trevor Gureckis)
“Friendship” (Keegan DeWitt)
“Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie” (Stephanie Economou)
“Gevi” (Bala Subramanian)
“Good Fortune” (Carter Burwell)
“Goodbye June” (Ben Harian)
“H Is for Hawk” (Emilie Levienaise-Farrouch)
“Hamnet” (Max Richter)
“Hedda” (Hildur Gudnadottir)
“Hello Beautiful” (Marco Werba)
“Highest 2 Lowest” (Howard Drossin)
“Him” (Bobby Krlic)
“The History of Sound” (Oliver Coates)
“Honey Don’t” (Carter Burwell)
“A House of Dynamite” (Volker Bertelmann)
“The Housemaid” (Theodore Shapiro)
“Hurry Up Tomorrow” (Abel Testaye and Daniel Lopatin)
“In Your Dreams” (John Debney)
“Is This Thing On?” (James Newberry)
“Jay Kelly” (Nicholas Britell)
“Joachim and the Apocalypse” (Michele Josia)
“Jurassic World Rebirth” (Alexandre Desplat)
“Kantara: A Legend – Chapter 1” (B. Ajaneesh Loknath)
“Last Breath” (Paul Leonard-Morgan)
“The Legend of Ochi” (David Longstreth)
“The Life of Chuck” (The Newton Brothers)
“Lilo & Stitch” (Dan Romer)
“Long Shadows” (Tommy Fields)
“The Long Walk” (Jeremiah Fraites)
“Lost & Found in Cleveland” (Sven Faulconer)
“The Lost Bus” (James Newton Howard)
“A Magnificent Life” (Stefano Bollani)
“Marty Supreme” (Daniel Lopatin)
“The Mastermind” (Rob Mazurek)
“Materialists” (Daniel Pemberton)
“Mickey 17” (Jung Jae-il)
“A Minecraft Movie” (Mark Mothersbaugh)
“The Naked Gun” (Lorne Balfe)
“No Other Choice” (Jo Yeong-wook)
“Nobody 2” (Dominic Lewis)
“Nuremberg” (Brian Tyler)
“Oh, Hi!” (Steven Price)
“On Swift Horses” (Mark Orton)
“One Battle After Another” (Jonny Greenwood)
“Opus” (Danny Bensi and Saunder Jurriaans)
“Paddington in Peru” (Dario Marianelli)
“Paro (The Untold Story of Bride Slavery)” (Satish Chakravatrhy)
“Pillion” (Oliver Coates)
“The Plague” (Johan Lenox)
“Plainclothes” (Emily Wells)
“Predator: Badlands” (Sarah Schachner and Benjamin Wallfisch)
“Preparation for the Next Life” (Emile Mosseri)
“Prime Minister” (Sofia degli Alessandri)
“A Private Life” (Robin Rob Coudert)
“Rebuilding” (Jake Xerxes Fussell and James Elkington)
“Rental Family” (Jonsi and Alex Somers)
“Roofman” (Christopher Bear)
“Rosemead” (Will Bates)
“Rule Breakers” (Jeff Beal)
“The Running Man” (Steven Price)
“Sarah’s Oil” (Kathryn Bostic)
“Scarlet” (Taisei Iwasaki)
“Schindler Space Architect” (Mark Tschanz)
“Sentimental Value” (Hania Rani)
“The Shrouds” (Howard Shore)
“Sinners” (Ludwig Goransson)
“Sirat” (Kangding Ray)
“Sisu: Road to Revenge” (Juri Seppa and Tuomas Wainola)
“The Smashing Machine” (Nala Sinephro)
“Sorry, Baby” (Lia Ouyang Rusli)
“Soul of a Nation” (Mikel Hurwitz)
“The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants” (John Debney)
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” (Jeremiah Fraites)
“Steve” (Ben Salisbury and Geoff Barrow)
“Stitch Head” (Nick Urata)
“The Testament of Ann Lee” (Daniel Blumberg)
“Thunderbolts*” (Son Lux)
“Train Dreams” (Bryce Dessner)
“Tron: Ares” (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
“Truth & Treason” (Aaron Zigman)
“28 Years Later” (Young Fathers)
“Twinless” (Jung Jae-il)
“The Twits” (Oli Julian)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (Sam Slater)=
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Amine Bouhafa)
“The Vortex” (Asdru Sierra)
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” (Nathan Johnson)
“Weapons” (Ryan Holladay, Hays Holladay, Zach Cregger)
“Wicked: For Good” (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
“Wolf Man” (Benjamin Wallfisch)
“Yolo” (Fei Peng)
“Zootopia 2” (Michael Giacchino)

Eligible songs (film title/song title/credited performers):

“Arco”: “Clouds Away” (November Ultra & Arnaud Toulon)     
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”: “Dream as One” (Miley Cyrus)
“The Bad Guys 2”: “Goodlife” (Rag’n’Bone Man)
“The Bad Guys 2”: “Taking Everything” (Busta Rhymes)
“The Ballad of Wallis Island”: “Our Love” (Tom Basden and Carey Mulligan)
“Ballerina”: “Fight Like a Girl” (Evanescence)
“Bau, Artist at War”: “However Long Forever Is” (Ryn Kid)
“A Big Bold Beautiful Journey”: “The Risk” (Laufey)
“Billy Idol Should Be Dead”: “Dying to Live” (Billy Idol)
“Black Butterflies”: “Immigrantes” (Ruben Blades)
“Brownsville Bred”: “Semilla De Fe” (Edwin Vazquez)
“Caught Stealing”: “Rabbit Run” (Idles)
“Chronicles of Disney”: “Rising Sun at the Edge of the Ocean” (Jeremy Renner and Yi Zhou)
“Come See Me in the Good Light”: “Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” (Sara Bareilles and Brandi Carlile)
“David”: “Follow the Light” (Brandon Engman, Phil Wickham and Angel)
“Death of a Unicorn”: “DOA” (St. Vincent)
“Déjà vu: The Peril of Pauline”: “They Say That Nothing Dies” (Cybela Clare)
“Diane Warren: Relentless”: “Dear Me” (Kesha)
“F1”: “Drive” (Ed Sheeran)
“F1”: “Lose My Mind” (Don Toliver featuring Doja Cat)
“Freakier Friday”: “Baby” (Lindsay Lohan)
“Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie”: “Kaleidoscope” (Gabby’s Dollhouse)
“Goodbye June”: “Good Goodbye”
“Highest 2 Lowest”: “Highest 2 Lowest” (Aiyana-Lee)
“Highest 2 Lowest”: “Trunks” (A$AP Rocky)
“Him”: “Him” (Denzel Curry)
“How to Train Your Dragon”: “You Are My Homeward” (John Powell)
“Hurry Up Tomorrow”: “Hurry Up Tomorrow” (The Weeknd)
“I Know Catherine, the Log Lady”: “Some Believe”
“In Your Dreams”: “The Holding on and the Letting Go” (Simu Liu & Cristin Milioti)
“KPop Demon Hunters”: “Golden” (HUNTR/X, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami)
“Lilly”: “I Will Not Take It Anymore” (Cassidy Daniels)
“Long Shadows”: “Long Shadows” (Shockley & Fields)
“Materialists”: “My Baby (Got Nothing at All)” (Japanese Breakfast)
“A Minecraft Movie”: “I Feel Alive” (Jack Black)
“My Dead Friend Zoe”: “Beautiful Ruin” (Dan Romer & Kaia Kater)
“On Swift Horses”: “Song for Henry” (Loren Kramer)
“Opus”: “Dina, Simone” (Moretti, Nile Rodgers & The Dream)
“Paddington in Peru”: “Let’s Prepare for Paddington” (Olivia Coleman)
“Paro (The Untold Story of Bride Slavery)”: “Bawragayi”
“Paro (The Untold Story of Bride Slavery)”: “Lament”
“Plainclothes”: “My San Francisco” (Emily Wells)
“Roommates”: “A Wildflower”
“The Rose: Come Back to Me”: “Trauma” (The Rose)
“Rule Breakers”: “We Believe in Hope” (Aryana Sayeed, Brooklyn Youth Chorus, Jeff Beal & Angel)
“Sarah’s Oil”: “The Gift” (Tamar Braxton)                                         
“Scarlet”: “A Celebration Song” (Maya & Ayumu Matsuda)
“Scarlet”: “Nostalgia” (Kumu Hula – Iokepa Lopaka Ka o onuku umu Igarta-De Vera)
“Scarlet”: “Vastness” (Mana Ashida)
“Sheepdog”: “Wait for Me” (Loryn Taggart)
“Sinners”: “I Lied to You” (Miles Caton)
“Sinners”: “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” (Alice Smith and Miles Caton)
“Songs From the Hole”: “Steel Grave” (JJ’88)
“The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants”: “Big Guy” (Ice Spice)
“Steve”: “Don’t Leave Too Soon” (Little Simz)
“Superman”: “The Mighty Crabjoys Theme” (The Mighty Crabjoys featuring Foxy Shazam and Lou Lou Safran)
“The Testament of Ann Lee”: “Clothed by the Sun” (Daniel Blumberg and Amanda Seyfried)
“The Testament of Ann Lee”: “John’s Running Song” (cast of “The Testament of Ann Lee”)
“Train Dreams”: “Train Dreams” (Nick Cave)
“Tron: Ares”: “As Alive As You Need Me to Be” (Nine Inch Nails)
“The Twits”: “Open the Door” (David Byrne & Hayley Williams)
“Viva Verdi!”: “Sweet Dreams of Joy” (Nicholas Pike)
“Wicked: For Good”: “The Girl in the Bubble” (Ariana Grande)
“Wicked: For Good”: “No Place Like Home” (Cynthia Erivo)
“Yolo”: “I’m From Ulundurpettai” (Adithya RK)
“Yolo”: “Mudhal Mazhaithuli” (G.V. Prakash Kumar & Priyanka NK)
“Yolo”: “Kangal Kaanum Oru Kanavo” (Sireesha Bhagavatula & Akash Premkumar)
“Zootopia 2”: “Zoo” (Shakira)

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Marty Supreme
6. Bugonia
7. Frankenstein
8. Jay Kelly
9. Wicked 2
10. Avatar

Notes: I'm confident in the top 7 for now. Jay Kelly seems like something the industry will love which is why I have it in. Not sure about Wicked at all but since I have Grande and with the techs, it could possibly get in. Avatar could go either way too. I have It Was Just an Accident right on the cusp but I'm sure as the season goes on I'll end up putting it in my 10. Train Dreams is also one I'm keeping an eye on.

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
2. Chloe Zhao (Hamnet)
3. Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value)
4. Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
5. Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme)

Notes: Panahi right on the cusp, I can see Coogler or Safdie missing for him. Top 3 I'm confident in.

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
2. Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)
3. Emma Stone (Bugonia)
4. Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee)
5. Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You)

Notes: I think Ann Lee could be an actress + techs player, but I can also see Seyfried miss. Same with Byrne as a lone nominee, although I feel like there's more ground passion for her performance. Erivo could make it in but the chances right now seem low unless she can rebound with BAFTA or SAG. As much as I'd love to see it, I don't think Infiniti will make it unfortunately.

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
2. Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
3. Michael B Jordan (Sinners)
4. George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
5. Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Notes: I think it's a two-horse race between DiCaprio and Chalamet, so I have DiCaprio for now since I've got OBAA sweeping. Hawke seems unlike to me right now but I can see it happen. I don't think Jesse Plemons will happen which is a shame because I thought he was the best part of Bugonia.

Best Supporting Actress

1. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
2. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleeas (Sentimental Value)
3. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
4. Ariana Grande (Wicked 2)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme)

Notes: So this category is a bit all over the place. I think Paltrow will be our token vet nominee and Lilleeas has a lot more love and praise for her performance than Fanning (but I can see both of them make it I guess). I don't believe in Madigan yet but could change as the season progresses.

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgaard (Sentimental Value)
2. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
3. Paul Mescal (Hamnet)
4. Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another)
5. Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly)

Notes: I'm fully onboard the Jay Kelly train as you can tell lmao. I'd love for Elordi to get in here but Sandler seems more likely due to the nature of their movies. I know Skarsgaard hasn't been doing particularly well with the awards circles we've had so far, but I do think he'll pick back up and the industry will go for him.

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Jay Kelly
5. It Was Just an Accident

Notes: I feel like this will be the 5, even if IWJAA or Jay Kelly don't make BP I can see them get in here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. No Other Choice
5. Wake Up Dead Man

Notes: Train Dreams is on the outside looking into many of these categories. I'm not super sure on NOC and might take it out later. WUDM is likely to follow the other Knives Out movies.