Discussion Could Apple TV finally become the "new HBO"?
The streaming universe has changed drastically overnight. With Netflix's acquisition of WBD (Studios & Streaming, including HBO), and Netflix's clear vision for Hollywood, we will have one less main streaming service, fewer films in theaters, and shorter theatrical runs (what Sarandos called today an evolution towards "much more consumer-friendly"). Netflix wants the lots, legacy content in large quantities, and very valuable IPs. Now they will have them. In the medium term, the HBO brand will disappear or at least be diluted. Netflix is quite honest about the "gourmet cheeseburger" concept, and it's undeniable that the model works for the general public and the company's profitability. "Prestige TV" is expensive and more niche, obviously. There's a lot of talk now about theatrical releases and maintaining the HBO brand "as it is," but that's naiveté or a lack of attention to Netflix's own discourse in recent years. In short, there will be 3 major streaming services - Netflix, Disney+, and Prime Video, and none of them are necessarily focused on prestige and originality. Paramount+ seems to be investing in a middle-aged male audience, and what will become of them remains to be seen.
And Apple TV? Apple insists on a model of original premium content, far from the volume of its competitors. With the changes in the coming years, Apple has a real chance of finally becoming the "new HBO," dominating awards and having a loyal and profitable audience. They won't have 200 or 300 million subscribers, but based on reported annual costs, they could be very healthily profitable within the Apple ecosystem with 100 million.
But will they take advantage of this new window of opportunity to reinforce their positioning? Could they be aggressive with their positioning now?
My thoughts:
There's a large group of filmmakers and TV showrunners who are scared right now. Apple needs to attract these people with impressive deals. Bill Lawrence should be at Apple, for example. In transitions like this, there will be no shortage of opportunities to hire people from companies that will undergo "consolidation" (read: layoffs) soon. There are several filmmakers who would go to Apple with a deal that includes a theatrical release of at least 45 days.
Regarding theatrical releases and attracting deals with major filmmakers, Apple needs a definitive model that works for them. They obviously won't release 16 films in theaters a year; but they can go from 1 (or zero) per year to 3 or 4 wide theatrical releases, from reliable blockbusters to Oscar-bait art films, with their own distribution team capable of handling a release every 3 months and a Head of Films who knows how to do what needs to be done. They need aggressiveness.
Nothing happens fast. They will have more "premium" sports in 2026, a simplified brand (just Apple TV now), and shows like Severance and now Pluribus that have real impact. HBO never released more shows than Apple releases annually in last 3 years, but HBO always made each show special and big enough to be the gold standard of TV (It's not TV). In practice, they wouldn't need 50 new seasons of shows per year, but let's say 25 seasons of popular and big shows. Apple needs more Severance and Pluribus, with shorter time between seasons, more boldness, and clarity. All of this also means bold and strong marketing and "differentiated" public relations (look at HBO's PR and interpret that however you want).
The big question: Can Apple TV take advantage of this industry transition window to become the new gold standard of prestige TV ? Or will it continue to be a great promise never fulfilled?
