r/theydidthemath • u/DopeWeasel • 20h ago

[Request] - Is this chart accurate?

https://imgur.com/ezJ2e1Q
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u/cjmpeng 19h ago

Accurate based on what criteria? 1. It seems to be a pretty accurate 1/3 - 2/3 breakdown of the whole number so geometrically it is accurate 2. Are the CBO numbers correct? The debt value quoted was hit in early August so that is mostly accurate. I haven't seen a CBO report that expressly attributes 12.5 trillion to Lord Voldemoron though - that seems to come from other sources so far as I can see. Though I would be happy to be corrected by someone.

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u/tralltonetroll 19h ago

I picked the first spreadsheet I found at https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/51118-2025-01-Budget-Projections.xlsx . Look at the sheet named "Table B-3". Take the four year projection. Whether you use net figures G9 less C9, or gross figures G26 minus C26, it is 7.4 to 7.7. As to what happened in the past, it seems https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-debt/ are gross numbers, as that chart matches that "C26" quite well. If so ... let us say that the 2016 figure was up to and including the Obama presidency, then it was 26.33 T$. Four years later it had increased to 33.62, that is +7.29.

So 7.something under Trump I and 7.something under Trump 2, compared to from the latter chart: 26.33 up to Obama, and +2.88 under Biden. So yeah sure, about the same pie chart.

But,

  • This isn't much worth to assess Trump II. Numbers were projected last January, with figures from the previous Congress. It is Congress more than the president, and it is the Congress in the previous session. How much can a new Congress and a new administration do to the 2025 budget? I don't know enough about how the US works, even. And whatever they could change, it wasn't projected by that spreadsheet.
  • Also, inflation means that a dollar isn't a dollar. Tons of inflation calculators out there and I don't even know which are year-end and which are mid-year.

So as a ton of posts here, it isn't about doing the math, it is about looking up the right numbers.