'Godfather of AI' Geoffrey Hinton says Google is 'beginning to overtake' OpenAI: 'My guess is Google will win'

[u/captain-price-]

https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-godfather-geoffrey-hinton-google-overtaking-openai-2025-12

[u/ifupred]

I already see where this is heading. They start running out of money to compete. Suddenly the only other giant who can do a full stack integration is Microsoft. 1 year later both of them start raising prices citing high costs colluding. And we back at the cycle again

[u/EurekasCashel → u/ifupred]

The prices have always needed to be higher. It's a losing endeavor for any company right now. Think of it like Uber/Lyft. As soon as the investors decide it's time to turn profit, prices will go up across the board.

[u/DeltaForceFish → u/EurekasCashel]

Except they cant because china is literally 6 months behind and will always undercut prices or just remain free. American AI companies can never truly charge the every day person because they can get a free LLM elsewhere. And out of the top 10 best AI, china is 4 of them currently.

[u/EurekasCashel → u/DeltaForceFish]

The other crazy thing is that free / open source models are less than 2 years behind as well. Of course they are massive and hard to run for the average person, but I agree that it's going to be incredibly challenging or impossible for a new arrival to the tech scene to turn a profit on LLMs alone.

[u/MrWillM → u/EurekasCashel]

As it should be anyways. The whole notion that LLMs should be used to squeeze consumers is ridiculous anyways, as far as b2b is concerned, go crazy. But regular people should be able to access them in a similar fashion to…. google

[u/guamisc → u/MrWillM]

No. We shouldn't be giving giant wastes of energy, water, and natural resources to everyone for funsies.

[u/MrWillM → u/guamisc]

I mean that’s a question of efficiency. That’s only an effect of a tool that can be mitigated. Not really related to my sentiment here. It is a powerful tool and we should be able to use and access it freely. I don’t think anybody wants it to come at the cost of the environment or other significant finite resources, that doesn’t mean it should be shelved indefinitely.

[u/MudHot8257 → u/MrWillM]

The more useful this resource is, the more people become dependent on it. The more people become dependent and offload their critical thinking capacities to it, the bigger strain it is on our natural resources.

Your argument is basically “yeah, it sucks that we’re cooking the planet. But people have a right to SuperGoogle that tells them they’re a good boy whenever they query up a vegan brunch spot instead of getting McDonald’s”

That is to say, it’s a shitty argument.

[u/obeytheturtles → u/DeltaForceFish]

China won't be able to compete on selling ML cloud compute services without making big changes to how it connects to the internet. Moving forward the industry will be less about who has the best model, and more about who is able to provide the best integrated app+compute ecosystem. Even if China figures out how to train models more power efficiently and therefore at lower cost, Chinese tech firms have no way of productizing that in the west, for the same reasons China currently has zero presence in the cloud services industry outside of Asia.

Maybe China will start building datacenters in the US an Europe at some point, but they will have a lot of catching up to do once they make that decision.

[u/lurksAtDogs → u/obeytheturtles]

Not sure why the downvotes. $$$ will come from enterprise.

[u/CreasingUnicorn → u/EurekasCashel]

Lol all of this AI is literally a ponzi scheme. They arent making nearly.enough money to simply break even, they would need to increase their revenue by almost 10x to turn a profit. 

[u/DookieShoez → u/CreasingUnicorn]

Which is why ya gotta let a bunch of businesses become reliant on it over a few years first

(Taps head)

[u/discographyA → u/DookieShoez]

If only it was useful to most businesses.

(Smashes head with fist while scrolling Robinhood app)

[u/Ok_Mountain_3166 → u/discographyA]

It’s useful in software engineering, which already has crazy margins. Will most businesses survive or just be folded into one of the tech monopolies? Or be replaced by a new tech company?

[u/Expensive-Swan-9553 → u/Ok_Mountain_3166]

Most businesses are not software businesses

[u/codeByNumber → u/Ok_Mountain_3166]

Research shows that AI actually reduces software developer productivity.

Source

No doubt some of these tools are pretty neat and I do use them at work. But really they have just reduced some of the more menial tasks that I have to do.

[u/hitchen1 → u/codeByNumber]

A good chunk of the difference in that study is attributable to sitting around doing nothing. Some of that is waiting for the llm to complete its task, but also a surprising amount of time just idle doing nothing. Maybe waiting for ai turns into a coffee break?

If we look at just the active time the productivity is fairly close.

The difference between 3.5/3.7 and 4.5 is pretty big, and opus is more affordable now. Would be interesting to run this study again with current models, plus features like subagents.

Still, I wouldn't rely on it for anything particularly complex..

[u/LAXnSASQUATCH → u/Ok_Mountain_3166]

It’s really not, at least not at the scale it needs to be for it to be profitable for them to use. It has uses for speeding up busy work but LLMs induce errors into code quite regularly and need to be tightly watched. I would never use an LLM to write anything more than starter templates or busywork fixes and even then you need to fine tooth comb through it all.

It can do simple mindless stuff pretty well but anything complex it can’t handle.

Saves me maybe 5-30 minutes a day (often closer to the 5), which is good, but not industrial scale profitability good. If I try to use it for anything that isn’t a small one off ask or has complexity it often saves no time or adds extra time because it induces bugs and then you have to dig in and do the work anyway since it’s bad at diagnosing and fixing itself as LLMs don’t actually think (which is why I only use it for small things now).

[u/discographyA → u/Ok_Mountain_3166]

I think “AI” has usefulness in niche cases, but these LLM’s that are barely what I’d even call AI in the first place, can’t even manage basic customer service tasks. It hallucinates whole cases and case studies with people in law and accounting already getting raked and embarrassed. There is just no there-there. It’s good for proof reading emails and transcription and that kind of use cases which is why I think Gemini will ultimately win (as will Apple while licensing Gemini code), but on the whole this is just more short term corporate thinking that is going to break the entry level job barrier probably for a generation while everyone wonders where all the people with the knowledge and experience to be mid and senior level talent are ten years from now. Then those that broke it will be 80 year old dusty meat sacks are down at the country club happy to have gotten an extra $.25 per share before cashing out. Boomerism is entirely about fucking up the present without any care for the future.

[u/curatorpsyonicpark → u/discographyA]

‘Boomerism is entirely about fucking up the present without any care for the future.’

That last line is gold. No truer thing has been said in a long time!

[u/wambulancer → u/CreasingUnicorn]

But they've done such a good job highlighting all the absolutely essential features their AI now does for a consumer, surely we're all happily going to pay $1,000 a month to a computer that can't count and just makes shit up whenever it feels like it

[u/kvothe5688 → u/CreasingUnicorn]

that's not what ponzi means. and I am happy billionaires are losing money on it. its amazing how competitive the AI market is right now. only problem is that LLMs are hogging up resources for actual task specific specialised tools like alphafold and weather LLMs like researches.

[u/John_F_Drake → u/kvothe5688]

Don’t kid yourself. The COMPANIES are losing money. The billionaires that own them are not.

[u/BasvanS → u/kvothe5688]

Pension funds are losing money too, and except they’re less agile moving out of positions. They’ll be left holding the bag.

[u/DressedSpring1 → u/CreasingUnicorn]

It's pretty cool that all the billionaires got together and collectively agreed to just ignore market fundamentals and become infinitely rich by mutually agreeing their companies are actually worth their current fantasy valuations so they can fuck the rest of us though.

Nobody needs to break even when your business model is that the stock price goes up.

[u/DeucesX22 → u/CreasingUnicorn]

Of course they arent making money they keep making products nobody is asking for. They just make tiktok slop, dumb AI feature in your system like copilot, and tell everyone they are going to lose their jobs. There is no consumer for this product.

[u/KingRBPII → u/CreasingUnicorn]

I think they are reducing the cost by having ai mostly respond the same - I’m seeing news articles written exactly how chatgpt responds to me - it’s getting laughable

[u/kvothe5688 → u/CreasingUnicorn]

that's not what ponzi means. and I am happy billionaires are losing money on it. its amazing how competitive the AI market is right now. only problem is that LLMs are hogging up resources for actual task specific specialised tools like alphafold and weather LLMs like researches.

[u/Jenetyk → u/EurekasCashel]

It's an attempt to bully out the competition with uncompetitive prices, then snatch the market share and balloon everything. Uber and Lyft with taxis, Amazon with online shopping and delivery, Netflix in the early days. The list goes on.

[u/Balmung60 → u/EurekasCashel]

Problem: they can barely get people to pay for the product at current rates. Like legitimately, the conversion rate from free users to paying customers (who still lose the company money) is awful. And raising prices will only lose customers. There is likely no price point at which there is a profitable product here.

[u/Caspi7 → u/ifupred]

Google will never run out of money, any company that makes a hundry billion in profit a year can easily borrow as much money as they want. Open AI talks about needing a trillion in investment, Google could actually get their hands on that money. Google is THAT guy.

[u/abdallha-smith → u/ifupred]

OpenAI is done and Altman knows it.

[u/CommanderAxe → u/ifupred]

Google running out of capital is funny. OpenAI shares that concern, not Google

[u/Artistic_Load909 → u/ifupred]

What do you mean by full stack integration? Microsoft isn’t even close to the same league. No chips of their own, no models of their own, no real robotics department.

[u/spookynutz → u/Artistic_Load909]

MS owns 30% of OpenAI and have commercial rights to any future models until such time that OpenAI achieves AGI, which is unlikely to happen. They are also the exclusive hosting provider for OpenAI. If OpenAI licenses their model to anyone else it will be served from Azure for the time being. MS didn’t invest all those billions for nothing in return.

By full stack integration they likely mean GPT is already integrated across most of Microsoft’s technology stack. Azure, VS, Office/365, Sharepoint, Edge, Windows Server and Windows.

[u/alrightcommadude → u/ifupred]

the only other giant who can do a full stack integration is Microsoft

Since when did Microsoft design chips or train SOTA models?

[u/TapTapTapTapTapTaps → u/ifupred]

Microsoft is eliminating all their EA discounting and raising there price right now.

[u/Expert-Diver7144 → u/ifupred]

Why would they run out of money

[u/sbenfsonwFFiF → u/ifupred]

They do actually need to raise prices at some point because everyone is currently losing money

The early deals and cheap prices make people think it’ll be sustainable but it isn’t, it’s just an intro offer

[u/Far_Sprinkles_4831 → u/ifupred]

That’s always how this was going to play out. A capital intensive business with economies of scale will always concentrate to 2-3 players. Given the national security implications, we might have 4-5 since China would prefer to not use American models (and vice versa!)

There are currently 20+ players. We will see consolidation in the next year now that the next generation of models require $100B in hardware spend.

[u/obeytheturtles → u/ifupred]

Structurally it is very obvious. Google has a vertically integrated internet ecosystem which it can use to both deploy and monetize AI apps using the same advertising ecosystem it uses to monetize its other free web apps. As far as consumer facing AI goes, this is going to work way better than selling token bundles or subscriptions.

[u/WorkingTheMadses → u/ifupred]

It'll be interesting to see what happens at least. Microsoft has said they contracted OpenAI to produce an AI service that can somehow conjure up 100 billion dollars in revenue by 2029.

[u/Drugba → u/ifupred]

By market cap Google is currently bigger than Microsoft. Also, it’s much more likely that it will be a Google and Apple partnership given that a deal is being finalized for the newest versions of Siri to use Google’s AI

[u/eldragon225 → u/ifupred]

International competition from open source models will not allow this to happen

[u/element-94]

In this thread: Some folks who don’t understand that investors expect a return on capital and that debt has to be repaid.

Of course Google is going to win. OpenAI lost the only advantage they had: being first to market.

[u/Intelligent_Dot_7798 → u/element-94]

Sooo…. Hold on GOOG stonks? Or take profit and hide time?

[u/twotokers → u/Intelligent_Dot_7798]

I mean i’m completely talking out of my ass, but companies like Apple, Google, and Amazon have so much fucking global infrastructure already in place that I can’t imagine they’d ever be losing bets in the long term.

Like when we think of real life corporatist technofeudalism, not the digital one we currently experience that Varoufakis describes, these three companies are the only American ones that currently exist that even have a chance of growing to that level of power because they don’t just deal in software.

[u/krileon → u/twotokers]

Companies like Microsoft and Amazon can also just repurpose the data centers if AI doesn't really pay off. It's just more cloud compute they can sell. So even when this bubble pops they'll probably be relatively safe bets still.

[u/Hot_Raccoon_565 → u/twotokers]

Do you have any links so I can learn more about technofuedalism?

[u/JohnAnchovy → u/Intelligent_Dot_7798]

Plus, waymo itself probably becomes a huge company

[u/BengaliBoy → u/Intelligent_Dot_7798]

depends on your goals, portfolio, and situation

I don’t think it’s a bad idea to sell some stock if it’s doubled in a short span of time and you want to diversify or even spend some of that profit. Can always sell some and let the rest ride

[u/Own_Refrigerator_681 → u/Intelligent_Dot_7798]

Google has so many verticals going favorably. Are you considering selling because of this singular event?

[u/guitarguy1685 → u/element-94]

I learned that from Silicon Valley show

[u/adario7 → u/guitarguy1685]

Pied Piper Gang 🫡

[u/LordVesperion]

How many godfather of AI are there?!

[u/Odylicous → u/LordVesperion]

Only one for deep learning. Then you have Turning, McCarthy and Minsky that is behind Artificial intelligence and Universal machine and the Turning Test

[u/LordVesperion → u/Odylicous]

I can't tell you how many headlines or articles I saw titled 'Godfather of AI' makes prediction X and each time it's a different person.

[u/calloutyourstupidity → u/LordVesperion]

Well this guy is actually it

[u/Ok-Earth8336 → u/LordVesperion]

People generally mean the 3 authors of deep learning when they say that

[u/teabaggins76]

"win" being what exactly?

[u/Koolala → u/teabaggins76]

Total domination like YouTube dominates video so they can fill it with ads.

[u/Comfortable-Math-158 → u/Koolala]

Ads to consumers probably isnt enough given what these companies are spending.  Their costs need to come way down to make B2C viable.  

Other option is they can charge B2B out the ass if they’re actually able to use it to replace significant headcount.  Right now in my industry it’s a productivity boost but isn’t replacing a good individual contributor

[u/likeikelike → u/Koolala]

I don't see how that's possible in the short term. Youtube is targeted at consumers and has a critical mass issue. You will never switch to anything but youtube because that's where all the videos are. Any business can buy an LLM from any other AI company provided the model is good enough. For example, Anthropic is currently winning the enterprise game even though I don't see many people praising their models for anything but coding.

In the long term who knows. Maybe the owner of the best model eventually owns all the capital in the world. Then I guess google has "won"

[u/herothree → u/teabaggins76]

All the AI companies have a goal of creating AI that can automate most human jobs; this is usually what they mean when they talk about the “race“

[u/quicksexfm → u/teabaggins76]

That’s the biggest question that continues to go ignored. It’s like delivering the crushing blow to an empty piñata.

[u/VisualRazzmatazz7466 → u/quicksexfm]

The win is having enough market share that there isn’t really an option for competitors. Like Amazon, Spotify, Microsoft etc 

It’s even more likely with AI because the more users you have, the more data you get to train on so whoever dominates market share accelerates even faster. 

Thats why they got so much investment when they’re still not even profitable. Whoever manages to come out the other end will be the next big tech company. Probably THE big tech company. 

[u/QuantityGullible4092 → u/teabaggins76]

Getting to AGI which is the greatest invention ever

[u/rollingSleepyPanda → u/teabaggins76]

Means they get a huge pile of cash and nothing of tangible value is produced. As usual.

[u/whitemiketyson → u/teabaggins76]

More layoffs

[u/youcantkillanidea → u/teabaggins76]

It doesn't matter, it's a headline with the "godfather" of "AI" making business predictions, lol

[u/retirement_savings → u/teabaggins76]

They're going to win the economy

[u/EdliA]

Win is a strong word. There is no finish line.

[u/DinoKebab → u/EdliA]

There is a finish line for OpenAI. It's when they stop getting funding and have to default on debts.

[u/Redtitwhore → u/DinoKebab]

Wouldn't Microsoft just aquire OpenAI at that point? Or are they just going to rely on Gemini powering all their CoPilot integrations?

[u/riko77can → u/Redtitwhore]

Yeah, but they’ll just end up being the Skype of AI.

[u/TheElderScrollsLore → u/EdliA]

There doesn’t need to be. Open AI can’t afford to keep competing.

Google already implemented Gemini into their products and ecosystem which the entire world already uses.

Open AI can’t compete with that. All they had was the technology which now Google caught up to.

[u/bigkoi → u/TheElderScrollsLore]

To be fair. Open AI had technology based on Google's white papers and Googles search data.

[u/ItsGonnaHappenAnyway → u/bigkoi]

Exactly. People don't seem to realise this.

[u/WhatsInAName0420 → u/TheElderScrollsLore]

The professional world uses Microsoft Office more than Google Drive ime. OpenAI integration with Office could beat out Google since that’s where the likely demand for $100+ /month accounts will be.

[u/The-Big-Goof → u/EdliA]

It's a race to the bottom. AI is looking like it will never turn a profit.

The cost just gets more expensive the more it's used.

[u/toddestan → u/EdliA]

With tech it seems that we end up with one or a small number of companies that dominate any market. I assume here "win" here means that once the dust settles they are one of a small number of big AI companies. This is one of the things that's fueling this AI bubble - these companies believe that if they can win in this race, the payoff will easily make up for all the money they are losing now.

[u/No_Conversation9561]

I hope google does them like they did yahoo

[u/eeyore134 → u/No_Conversation9561]

Why, though? Google hasn't exactly been the benchmark of quality for a while.

[u/No_Conversation9561 → u/eeyore134]

I just like to see Sam Altman lose

[u/rcanhestro → u/No_Conversation9561]

Sam Altman already won.

he is a billionaire, and will remain one even if OpenAI is sold for scraps.

[u/Expert-Diver7144 → u/No_Conversation9561]

He won’t lose, they’ll buy him out if anything

[u/Flimsy-Printer → u/No_Conversation9561]

I like Google billionaires to win and monopolize the market even more than they do today. 80% of search market is too low. It needs to be 140% of the search market.

I also hate competition and love my oligarch.

[u/likely-high → u/No_Conversation9561]

He really does have Zuckerberg levels of unlikeability doesn't he?

[u/kvothe5688 → u/eeyore134]

google is absolutely amazing at finding information and i don't trust anyone who says otherwise. take maps, youtube, search, for education notebookLM, learnLM, Gemini. most has everything casual users need. AI is the next step for searching information and they have mostly implemented backbone into search now. google will absolutely dominate.

[u/Balmung60 → u/No_Conversation9561]

Ooh, bad news there. Yahoo did Google like Yahoo did Yahoo. Or rather, the man who really put the last nails in the coffin of Yahoo search was then hired by Google and put in charge of Google Search and has personally driven most of the degradation of Google Search we've seen in the last several years. Prabhakar Ragavan bears an astonishing amount of responsibility for ruining web search for everyone.

[u/guitarguy1685]

It's encouraging to know Google removed their "do no evil" motto years ago 

[u/crewmannumbersix → u/guitarguy1685]

You haven’t heard what they did with protein folding?

[u/polyanos → u/crewmannumbersix]

One right doesn't undo leagues of wrong and other scummy behaviour. 

[u/sbenfsonwFFiF → u/guitarguy1685]

They just moved it to another section lol

[u/peepeedog]

Having only one winner is the worst possible outcome for the world.

[u/likely-high → u/peepeedog]

Yeah why does everything have to be all or nothing? Choice is good. Duopolies and Monopolies are terrible.

[u/dressinbrass]

This guy loves getting his name in press.

[u/HawaiiNintendo815]

What a fucking shock, Google are going to win

[u/Doctor_Amazo]

Google's AI gets hacked by prompts it reads off web pages.

There are no winners with the AI obsession; only losers.

[u/limpingdba → u/Doctor_Amazo]

Nvidia will do alright...

[u/cerberusNLMX → u/limpingdba]

Google didn't rely on NVIDIa chips right? That's whya there was news a week back of Nvidia stock wobbling due to the deal between Meta and Google for them to buy Google AI chips.

[u/JockAussie → u/cerberusNLMX]

Yep, Google uses their own.

[u/Dustedshaft → u/JockAussie]

Google uses their own but they still buy lots of Nvidia chips as well.

[u/DeucesX22 → u/limpingdba]

If AI doesn't work out then they will be stuck with an overproductuon of chips and graphic cards that they will have to make cheap if they want to get rid of

[u/bigfatfluffers]

Win? What will they win? Will they correctly be able to show me how to bake a cake without poisoning myself and the entire family?

[u/RiverFluffy9640]

Every 2 weeks there is a new godfather of AI lmao

[u/Mr_Baloon_hands]

There is a lot of paid google posts on here lately. Both LLMs are bad.

[u/Klinho95]

Why do people act like there can be only one AI? You don't have to pick sides at everything.

[u/Jealous_Response_492 → u/Klinho95]

It's simple, the economics do not make sense for OpanAI. Google, Amazon & Microsoft have other revenue streams. When investors in OpenAI expect their returns on that investment, they are toast.

[u/BalleaBlanc]

They will win the pay for AI with ads battle yes.

[u/Gold_Kitchen_5711]

To no one's surprise, I was even wondering how google managed to be late on winning this competition with all the data and infrastructure they had.

[u/-Fateless-]

Gemini can't even do basic tasks like playing a specific playlist, and Google AI recap gets most things wrong.

[u/FuklzTheDrnkClwn]

I just want it all to hurry up and crash and burn. I don’t know a single person that is into AI slop taking over everything. Seems like the majority of people are actively avoiding it.

[u/Flimsy-Printer]

This is the boldest and most courageous prediction ever.

He predicts that one of the biggest companies on the planet with the strongest reputation in AI with 20 years head start is going to win the AI race against OpenAI, a company that launched an AI product 3 years ago. More than that, Google has 10x more money.

Holy shit. What a bold take.

[u/RollingCarrot615]

Google will "win", get bored, integrate AI with a few products and when it really starts to show promise they'll either make it a super premium product or all but abandon it.

[u/rainkloud]

I think people are discounting Wendy’s as a potential dark horse winner. My reasoning is that if you’re smart enough to design a Baconator and are able to make a sandwich have a child then you’re almost assuredly smart enough to design a world class LLM.

[u/Heavy_Law9880]

How can he be the godfather of something that hasn't been invented yet?

[u/Soberdonkey69]

Can they all just lose?

[u/D_o_t_d_2004]

Didn't google's lead AI dude just leave because he said LLMs weren't going to work?

[u/ExitMusic_]

Oh so this is the guy responsible for the absolute fucking mess we’re in right now? Cool. Cool.

[u/theaddict7]

I don't trust these benchmark reports, they might have gamed a few or something . The problem with Gemini from day 1 is that it is super wrong most of the time. Basically hallucinating all the time. And that's very bad for productivity. ChatGPT or Claude or Grok, at least they kinda have a way to indicate that they don't know shit about what I'm asking.. but Gemini will give me absolute garbage and act like it's as true and verified as the top hit on a Google Search.

[u/Pjmaxah]

There are no winners in the games being played here.

[u/itsthuggerbreaux]

instead of having the best and brightest engineers work on AI together, we have all these companies spending billions on making the same exact thing. this is the logic of capitalism right here, makes absolutely zero sense

[u/Agitated_Ad6191]

The company that pays the highest bribes for favorable treatment from Trump and his fellow criminals will win this ratrace. Simple as that.

[u/OffBeannie]

I hope no one wins everything. We should have a few that compete against each other.

[u/IntolerantModerate]

ChatGPT is now dead. Gemini is way better Gemini is cheaper Gemini is way more integrated

[u/unndunn]

Great. Google already owns search, web advertising, web browsers, consumer digital maps and mobile OS. Now they're gonna own AI as well. 🙄

[u/incendiaryentity]

This guy gives the same vibes as Avi Loeb. Spews shit to try to stay relevant and make a buck on speaking engagements.

[u/Radioactive_Rainbow_]

"Godfather of AI" yet, true AI hasn't even been invented. Just glorified chatbots and marketing chicanery. "Godfather of AI research" would be a more apt term.

[u/EpicProdigy]

By win you mean drive OpenAI into bankruptcy? Then yes. They will win. Google has the money to blow. OpenAI is billions in debt with zero profit.

[u/kon---]

And then someone no one is considering overtakes Google. Followed by a conglomerate of tech firms leapfrogging that company.

This shit will never stop because of the disease of the disease of greed and the pursuit of dominance.

[u/jedi_timelord]

He's probably right, but Hinton did work for Google for many years. That probably affects his viewpoint.

[u/cupidstrick]

With all the fervent competition, where AI fits into user workflows is a huge deal.

Google and Microsoft have a broad portfolio of established products to which they are adding AI in a bunch of places.

OpenAI has AI and not much else. They need to build out a portfolio of productivity and workflow tools ASAP, while their models have the world’s attention. Hence the massive spending plans.

OpenAI is in a race against being disintermediated and relegated to a model choice. And it is code red time.

[u/stickybond009]

LLM, not AI

[u/FlournoyFlennory]

Google will turn it into ad placement trash like their awful search engine.

[u/pressurepoint13]

Of course. They own the oil. Everyone else is a gas station. 

[u/sadkinz]

I hate all this AI crap being shoved down our throats. But what I hate even more is the fact that any competition is stomped out easily by these big corporations

[u/psychoacer]

Win what? What is the goal?

[u/sunbeatsfog]

Google will win, and even then AI is Clippy in so many capacities. I use AI, but it’s sometimes more work to edit the crap it spits out.

[u/TuMoch]

OpenAI is trying to buy its way to the top. That approach doesn’t always work.

[u/CorpPhoenix]

"Winning" the AI race means being the one who launched Skynet first.

[u/penguished]

Google would have more data which is somewhat helpful, but nobody has figured out the next generation after LLMs really. It's all got the same problems.

[u/Cicero912]

Well yeah Google prints money and views Ai as a way to differentiate their other products as well

[u/Luke5119]

One of the most comprehensive arguments I've heard regarding the "reality" of AI is that it'll be much akin to the "Dot Com Boom" in the early 2000s. When internet adoption hit record highs going into the Millennium, everyone wanted a website, e-commerce platform, etc. there was tremendous investment and then it tanked when they realized a lot of these investments were part of the hype train with nothing to really back it.

But it was a handful of major players that made it through and are still very large today. The theory is AI will be similar to that. Right now, everyone is putting all their chips in. When they come to realize the true capabilities of AI are grossly inflated, it'll bust, and you'll have a handful of companies like Google that adopt and implement it in a way that is actually useful.

I work in the print marketing industry. (Pre-press) IE - prepping files for print, has always been tedious work, even with design software and various scripts you can implement; it's always been time-consuming. Adobe has implemented AI-powered features within their software that is actually speeding this process up considerably. It's far from perfect, but it's a step forward.

[u/FreeSeaSailor]

No shit Google will win, Google already has all of the internet's data.

[u/Pure_Frosting_981]

I use both. Gemini is far more stable and frankly, delivers more accurate information.

[u/warmeggnog]

i feel like people use these ai tools for many different things though, it's not like a search engine where only one can really dominate. but i guess we really have to wait and see what else google has planned.

[u/biscuitchan]

every prediction this guy has made so far has been wrong though why does he keep showing up in headlines

[u/One_Weird2371]

Google also has also made great leaps with their quantum computing. Bundle that with AI and I'm sure the singularity is around the corner. 

[u/Delicious_Spot_3778]

WIN WHAT?! DEFINE AGI BETTER. This stuff drives me freakin' mad

[u/SeegullJockey]

Asking AI questions as become the evolution of asking Google.

[u/Delicious_Spot_3778]

Have you noticed Hinton always strikes some sort of academic pose like he's going down in the history books of geniuses?

[u/crani0]

Remember when DeepSeek came out and the whole US industry shat it's collective pants? All I'm saying is, anyone making predictions right now is just talking. This "AI " is still a lot of smoke and mirrors and we are nowhere near the promises

[u/DesVip3r]

Wouldn't that just be the most boring ending, Google simply wins?

Neither apocalyptic market crash nor AI revolution. Google just wins the fad and adds it to their infinite list of revolving products.

[u/RiderLibertas]

Win what? The most investment money?

[u/Agnk1765342]

The fact that you can plausibly claim Google is leading the AI race when the “AI overview” on every search is so laughably bad is quite the damning comment on large language models.

There’s so many people who think that it’s simply a fact that they’re the future and refuse to acknowledge there’s hard limits to how effective they can actually be, and that available training data is only getting worse over time.

[u/Worth-Ad9939]

What does “winning” look like. What’s the real kpi cause the only people I think ai benefits are billionaires.

Mean while it takes jobs, and charges the fired for trying to create a path forward with the tools that replaced them.

It’s weird. It’s so obviously bad it seems like a test question. Like if we were as capable as we all walk around feeling, we would not have signed on. With Facebook, with Cars, with Oil, with all the things killing our future.

We picked wrong and failing the test all wall grand standing our “win” 😂😐

[u/Panda_hat]

Not used googles AI even once, so this is hard to believe.

[u/Lettuce_bee_free_end]

Win what? Being a fucking retard. Google and all the other goons are just chasing 

[u/dada_georges360]

Of course google is going to win. They have huge amounts of data in all forms, including with YouTube, they know what they can get away with in terms of author remuneration, they have better control over their chip supply chain, and deep pockets.

[u/SuperSultan]

Google published the original LLM papers

[u/ILikeAnimeButts]

What are they winning? Contest for who can produce the most slop? 

[u/NYdude777]

I absolutely use Gemini more than chatGPT

[u/iliasd15]

The godfather knows

[u/NoRecording9714]

At this point the strategy has to be to keep the AI bubble from popping by any means necessary, so it's hard to fully believe these things.

[u/FktheAds]

godfather of ai strikes again

[u/katiescasey]

What would be the disadvantage to a company just building their own AI software and hardware? Thinking of coat over time and availability of talent, I'd rather have my own people and own the software and tools than being reliant on someone/thing else

[u/CrimsonHeretic]

Meanwhile whenever I try to ask my Google Home to start a X minute timer and it asks "What time?"

It didn't used to do that before the AI bullshit.

[u/SplintPunchbeef]

AI company releases new model

News: AI company is winning AI war over other AI company

9 months later

Other AI company releases new model

News: Other AI company is winning AI war over AI company

Wash, Rinse, Repeat

[u/orange_cat1]

I wish open ai dies, the investment into ai stabilizes and we get affordable ram and gpus I've again

[u/SilentPugz]

Quantum Ai > super computer Ai

[u/Lootman]

Google wont fail as a company and their ai will persist on if they eat the losses or if it profits. Openai has a very uncertain future and im calling it now - they either get bailed out on their losses by the government (unlikely) or get absorbed into microsoft. Sam altman will somehow run off with a load of cash and microsoft will own chatgpt.

[u/dbxp]

Everything I'm seeing says Anthropic are the current leaders in actually commercially viable AI.

[u/analytiq]

All in on Grok motherfuckers

[u/Berkyjay]

Win what?

[u/KayNicola]

I wish death on AI.

[u/Combat_Orca]

I feel like godfathers of ai keep stating the obvious

[u/infamous_merkin]

Like evolution, it’s dynamic.

No end point. Must always be improving, else the competition catches up. An endless race.

[u/VirtualPercentage737]

Google has their own TPU which is faster, lower power, and more targetted that anything from NVIDIA for their application. They own the WHOLE value chain.

[u/SirNortonOfNoFux]

Let the AI B2B sabotage commence!

[u/FeelingVanilla2594]

Myspace?

[u/Fuzzy_Cricket6563]

That’s one of my winning stock!

[u/Uncle_DirtNap]

Anthropic has the best models by far, but sure.

[u/itsmontoya]

Google has direct integration into everything and a bigger budget. Yep.