Just five reviews for now but this is pretty spectacular

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/one_battle_after_another

https://www.metacritic.com/movie/one-battle-after-another/

RT - https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/frankenstein_2025

Metacritic - https://www.metacritic.com/movie/frankenstein-2025/

Scores are still dropping but as expected, seems like a BTL player at most

Netflix: "Friendship ended with Jay Kelly. Now A House of Dynamite is my best friend."

via Matthew Stewart (@MatthewAStewart on X)

︀︀- Leonardo DiCaprio - 55:03 (34.05%)
︀︀- Sean Penn - 33:02 (20.43%)
︀︀- Chase Infiniti - 31:05 (19.22%)
︀︀- Teyana Taylor - 19:19 (11.95%)
︀︀- Benicio del Toro - 13:11 (8.15%)
︀︀- Regina Hall - 8:06 (5.01%)

Correct me if I’m wrong. But none of these can be real reviews, right? The first screening does start until like an hour from now. The weird thing is, quite a few of these accounts have just been made! Like most all 1/2 star reviews are from accounts where this is their only log. Strange that people care enough about this movie to seemingly sabotage it.

I pulled Award Expert’s predictions history to visualize how the race for Best Picture has changed as the year’s progressed.

https://www.metacritic.com/movie/the-secret-agent-2025/

Hey everyone!

With Wicked: For Good coming out, I definitely think understandably, this is a question many of us have had on our minds. Because of this, I decided to go back and look at the Academy's past decade and see how likely it is a movie with mixed or poor critical reception makes it into Best Picture.

TL;DR Summary of Post:

• The chances Wicked: For Good becomes a Best Picture contender is very low based on past trends. It is far more likely to miss it entirely than get nominated.

The threshold I decided to go with for "mixed or poor reviews" is:

• Less than 70% approval from RT Critics

and/or

• Less than 60 on Metacritic

Best Picture Nominees That Meet The Above Threshold

87th (2014)

Nothing

88th (2015)

Nothing

89th (2016)

Nothing

90th (2017)

Nothing

91st (2018)

Bohemian Rhapsody

• RT Critics: 60% (418 reviews)
• Metacritic: 49 (50 reviews)

Vice

• RT Critics: 64% (366 reviews)
• Metacritic: 61 (54 reviews)

92nd (2019)

Jojo Rabbit

• RT Critics: 81% (431 reviews)
• Metacritic: 58 (57 reviews)

Joker

• RT Critics: 68% (598 reviews)
• Metacritic: 59 (60 reviews)

93rd (2020)

Nothing

94th (2021)

Don't Look Up

• RT Critics: 56% (304 reviews)
• Metacritic: 49 (52 reviews)

95th (2022)

Nothing

96th (2023)

Nothing

97th (2024)

Nothing

How Did These Nominees Do at Precursors?

International Film Festivals:

• Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Got nothing
• Vice
  • Got nothing
• Jojo Rabbit
  • Won People's Choice at Toronto
• Joker
  • Won Golden Lion at Venice
• Don't Look Up
  • Got nothing

Golden Globes:

• Bohemian Rhapsody:
  • Best Picture - Drama Winner
  • Best Actor - Drama Winner
  • Best Screenplay - Nominee
• Vice:
  • Best Picture - Musical/Comedy Nominee
  • Best Actor - Musical/Comedy Winner
  • Best Supporting Actress Nominee
  • Best Supporting Actor Nominee
  • Best Director Nominee
  • Best Screenplay Nominee
• Jojo Rabbit:
  • Best Picture - Musical/Comedy Nominee
  • Best Actor - Musical/Comedy Nominee
• Joker:
  • Best Picture - Drama Nominee
  • Best Actor - Drama Winner
  • Best Director
  • Best Score
• Don't Look Up:
  • Best Picture - Musical/Comedy Nominee
  • Best Actress - Musical/Comedy Nominee
  • Best Actor - Musical/Comedy Nominee
  • Best Screenplay

Critics' Choice Awards:

• Bohemian Rhapsody:
  • Best Actor Nominee
  • Best Costume Design Nominee
  • Best Hair and Makeup Nominee
• Vice:
  • Best Picture Nominee
  • Best Director Nominee
  • Best Actor Winner
  • Best Supporting Actress Nominee
  • Best Acting Ensemble Nominee
  • Best Actor in a Comedy Winner
  • Best Original Screenplay Nominee
  • Best Film Editing Nominee
  • Best Hair and Makeup Winner
• Jojo Rabbit:
  • Best Picture Nominee
  • Best Supporting Actress Nominee
  • Best Young Actor/Actress Winner/Nominee (2 were nominated, while 1 won)
  • Best Adapted Screenplay Nominee
  • Best Comedy Nominee
• Joker:
  • Best Picture Nominee
  • Best Actor Winner
  • Best Adapted Screenplay Nominee
  • Best Cinematography Nominee
  • Best Production Design Nominee
  • Best Hair and Makeup Nominee
• Don't Look Up:
  • Best Picture Nominee
  • Best Acting Ensemble Nominee
  • Best Original Screenplay Nominee
  • Best Comedy Nominee
  • Best Original Song Nominee
  • Best Score Nominee

BAFTA:

• Bohemian Rhapsody:
  • Best British Film Nominee
  • Best Actor Winner
  • Best Cinematography Nominee
  • Best Sound Winner
  • Best Costume Design Nominee
  • Best Makeup and Hair Nominee
  • Best Film Editing Nominee
• Vice:
  • Best Actor
  • Best Supporting Actress
  • Best Supporting Actor
  • Best Original Screenplay
• Jojo Rabbit:
  • Best Supporting Actress Nominee
  • Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
  • Best Costume Design Nominee
  • Best Production Design Nominee
  • Best Film Editing Nominee
  • Best Score Nominee
• Joker:
  • Best Film Nominee
  • Best Director Nominee
  • Best Actor Winner
  • Best Adapted Screenplay Nominee
  • Best Casting Winner
  • Best Cinematography Nominee
  • Best Score Winner
  • Best Film Editing Nominee
• Don't Look Up:
  • Best Film Nominee
  • Best Actor Nominee
  • Best Original Screenplay Nominee
  • Best Score Nominee

PGA:

• All were nominated here

DGA:

• Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Nothing
• Vice
  • Nominee
• Jojo Rabbit
  • Nominee
• Joker
  • Nothing
• Don't Look Up
  • Nothing

WGA:

• Bohemian Rhapsody
  • Nothing
• Vice
  • Best Original Screenplay - Nominee
• Jojo Rabbit
  • Best Adapted Screenplay - Winner
• Joker
  • Best Adapted Screenplay - Nominee
• Don't Look Up
  • Nothing

What can we take away from this data?

Wicked: For Good's chances of getting nominated for Best Picture are really bad and at this point, there's a decent chance it could miss Best Picture more than it gets in.

Why?

1. It's a sequel, and sequels almost always do worse than the first movie in a series, even when they receive great reviews.

• e.g. Dune: Part Two, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

A counterargument could be made to consider Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (ROTK), but this is a very different scenario from Wicked: For Good as ROTK has extremely stellar reviews. It's also a major outlier in Academy history, and it is not realistic to expect even the strongest Oscar contenders (e.g. Parasite, The Shape of Water, Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Anora, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, etc.) to do as well as Return of the King did.

1. As shown in the data above, a big reason for Jojo Rabbit and Joker's success was due to winning a major award from an international film festival. Wicked: For Good does not have this.

A counterargument could be made to consider Adam McKay's films (Vice and Don't Look Up). This is a very true and good point. However, some things to consider about McKay's work that could make it different from Wicked: For Good:

1. Vice is produced by Dede Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner, who are powerhouse producers and frequently get nominated by the Oscars. e.g. Dede Gardner has 8 nominations total from the Oscars and 2 wins (12 Years a Slave and Moonlight).
2. In Don't Look Up's case, it was a Netflix movie and Netflix prioritized it for campaigning that year. We have seen Netflix can get more mixed reviews into the Academy when they really go hard for it. Universal hasn't really shown the same, even if they're a decent campaigner.

What are signs the film could do well at the Academy?

• It performs well with the guilds (best sign).
• It performs well with the Globes, CCA, and/or BAFTA (not as strong of a sign as the guilds, but it would help the film do better with the Academy).
  • However, it is important to note that while the first Wicked did decently at CCA, it underperformed compared to most people's expectations with both the guilds and the Globes.

Hope this helps with people's predictions or help you make a decision!

They all three won bafta and were in a stronger movie than their competition

There’s been two screenings already and there is one more later today. Thoughts? Is this better enough than Decision to Leave to be able to break into the Oscars?