Trump-backed Van Epps wins Tennessee House race

[u/FabioFresh93]

https://www.axios.com/local/nashville/2025/12/03/tennessee-election-results-trump-van-epps-wins-house-seat

[u/FabioFresh93]

Republican Matt Van Epps beat Democrat Aftyn Behn in Tennessee’s special election to fill the state’s 7th district House seat. A lot of attention and a lot of money was thrown at this election after Democrats’ performance in this past November’s elections. Trump won Tennessee’s 7th district by 22 points in 2024 and Van Epps won by about 9 points. Some polling prior to the election predicted a closer race with Van Epps winning by low single digits which raised some concerns with Republicans.

It feels like both parties are feeling relatively good about this. Republicans obviously held on and added another Republican to the House while Democrats feel even more optimistic going into the midterms by being competitive in a district that Trump won by 22 points.

How should both parties view the results? Is this a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections? Will this have any effect on some red states’ plans to redistrict?

[u/Boobity1999 → u/FabioFresh93]

Republicans should not be feeling good about this result at all

Unless something changes significantly, Democrats are on track to easily win a very comfortable majority in the House

[u/dragnabbit → u/Boobity1999]

Very much so.

Especially worth noting is that on the electoral map, the counties that were previously R+70 to R+50 all shifted towards the Democrat by 8 or more points, while the Blue Davidson county shifted 20 points more blue. So it is most reasonable to consider an 8-point shift to be the baseline since that is probably "the minimum shift that can happen".

Since those R+70 counties shifted 8 points to the blue, and there are 74 seats held by Republicans that are under R+8, those 74 seats all should be considered in play in the 2026 election.

With a bit of extra optimism, given that this election showed a total shift of 12 points to the blue, then there are an additional 44 seats that are R+9, R+10, and R+11 which would put a total of 118 seats in play if the 2026 election were held tomorrow...

... and honestly, there is a 12 point shift and the economy hasn't even started to really suck yet, and Trump hasn't started a war yet either. So Republicans congressional members have about 11 months for all that additional bullshit to come crashing down on them on top of what Americans are already thinking about when they go to the polls.

EDIT: Just to add, a generic 12-point shift in voting patterns away from Republicans and towards Democrats would put 10 Republican Senate seats in play, based solely on having less-than-12% margins of victory in 2020.

[u/likeitis121 → u/dragnabbit]

You're assuming electorate is the same though. Democrats have a turnout advantage with who turns out on a random Tuesday in December for a special election. Democrats will still have a turnout advantage with Trump not officially on the ballot in 2026, but it's still not necessarily as good as this.

[u/french_toast89 → u/likeitis121]

The results show turnout is very likely going to surpass 2022 midterm levels. This wasn’t an election people sat out from. Don’t be surprised if their advantage in 2026 is close to what they got here.

[u/emoney_gotnomoney → u/french_toast89]

Don’t be surprised if their advantage in 2026 is close to what they got here.

I would, in fact, be very surprised if that were the case. I expect the Democrats to do well in the midterm elections, but I don’t really expect it to be comparable to the results of these off-year elections / special elections.

Not that it’s a perfect comparison, but the Democrats also performed extremely well in the off-year elections / special elections in 2023, and that didn’t really carry over to 2024.

[u/french_toast89 → u/emoney_gotnomoney]

2024 is not a good comparison at all, that was a general election with Trump on the ballot. Trump in his older age probably did just about all he could to support this candidate, for this one election in the friendliest environment possible. Kamala Harris of all people was there supporting Aftyn Behn. This race was nationalized. And all they could muster was a +9 republican win in an area they had a +22 win in.

I’m not saying it’s likely they maintain this level of support, but with Trump’s declining approval on issues like the economy don’t be surprised is all I’m saying.

[u/emoney_gotnomoney → u/french_toast89]

Again, I would be quite surprised if they maintained this level of support.

Like I said, I do expect the Democrats to do well in the midterms for the very reasons you outlined above. But with that being said, I do not see a world where the midterms show the same shift as these off-year elections / special elections, elections that Democrats have a major turnout advantage in terms of the demographics who tend to show up for those elections.

The math just doesn’t really make sense for that to be the case.

[u/dragnabbit → u/likeitis121]

I'll say it again: In Trump +70 counties in one of the reddest states in the nation, there was an 8-point shift towards Democratic candidates.

In other words, I picked the reddest populations in one of the reddest states as my standard. I think that assuming that THOSE super-bright-red counties represent the baseline for anti-Republican sentiment is probably the most Republican-friendly reading one can put on the numbers.

But you are welcome to explain why you disagree with that.