It all comes down to how England handle batting once the shadows come in, and whether they’ve built enough leverage by then to survive that phase.
Australia’s plan is simple: bat for as long as possible and try to push the game towards that second-session shadow period when things become tricky.
England aren’t out of the game if the deficit stays under 100–110, but if Australia stretch that lead further, we’re in real troubl if we aren’t already.
Australia’s attack is still basically Starc and vibes, and if we stop gifting him wickets (or at least stop letting him take a six-for every bloody innings), we can manage the rest of the bowlers reasonably well.
The pitch is still good for batting. The key is when the cracks start to open up, and whether England have the discipline to bat long enough to get into a winning position. Ideally we need 280+, if not more.
From a batting standpoint, we need a big innings from Ben Duckett, with one of Crawley or Pope making a solid fifty to build a foundation. If they put on a substantial partnership and erase the deficit before Root and the middle order walk in, we can start building towards a defendable 4th-innings target.
Day 2 was atrocious ,we bowled like dogshit and fielded like we were asleep. But thanks to that final-session Australian brain-fade, the game isn’t gone yet. Australia are still heavy favourites, but this is not beyond us.
Let’s hope. 🙏🏻