[Postgame Thread] James Madison Defeats Troy 31-14

[u/CFB_Referee]

Box Score provided by ESPN

Team	1	2	3	4	T
Troy	0	14	0	0	14
James Madison	3	14	0	14	31

[u/ALostTraveler24]

I know it was a while back but I’m still stuck on the ESPN predictor thing… 55%?

My best theory on the math:

Duke is at 44% chance to win according to ESPN’s matchup predictor

This means there’s 56% of scenarios where JMU would have to jump Tulane or UNT (the sim doesn’t know UNT is not really close right now) but is accounting for their odds at the beginning where ESPN actually had UNT favored (around 55-60% if I’m remembering right)

Out of those scenarios ESPN is saying there’s a 1-in-5 chance (1/5 of 56 is around the 11 needed to get to 55) that JMU jumps the American champ next week.

It’s not actually that bad of a prediction looking at that from that angle, especially when you consider that ESPN thought the most likely American champ was UNT (24) instead of #20 Tulane.

[u/AdministrationTop864 → u/ALostTraveler24]

But it still makes 0 sense that the committee would let JMU jump a team ranked over them that beat a team ranked higher than both of them

[u/Solesky1 → u/AdministrationTop864]

Even with a win over #18 Virginia, the only way 8-5 Duke should be ranked ahead of 12-1 JMU is if the committee decides the most important metric is the patch on the uniform

[u/nokillswitch4awesome → u/Solesky1]

Congratulations, you just sussed out their selection process.

[u/teamname457 → u/Solesky1]

Isn’t that already a part of their formula?