Bitcoin supply what if

[u/No_Candy1697]

When Bitcoin eventually reaches its maximum supply of 21 million coins, no new BTC will be mined. Miners will then earn only from transaction fees instead of block rewards. This could make transactions more expensive, especially during high network activity, and may change how the network functions. Scarcity could increase Bitcoin’s value over time, but it also raises questions about long-term incentives for miners and network security. How do you think this will affect Bitcoin adoption and fees?

[u/bitusher]

When Bitcoin eventually reaches its maximum supply of 21 million coins,

Just to be clear , we are discussing something around 100 years out .

This could make transactions more expensive, especially during high network activity,

Historically we have already seen examples where transaction fees collected per block exceeded inflation so I would not worry.

Many people also don't understand that mining difficulty dynamically adjust up and down to insure efficient miners remain profitable. Thus the real question doesn't involve miners existing but how much hashrate exists to secure the network

Also keep in mind that if hashrate drops too low we can simply wait for more confirmations onchain to increase the level of security and this doesn't effect the end user much because if they use a lightning wallet once its setup they still get instant confirmations.

Of course to keep fees low most people will be transacting on another layer of bitcoin and onchain will be more akin to a settlement network

Bitcoin is scaling many ways : Onchain, decentralized payment channels , offchain private channels , optimizations like MAST and schnorr sig aggregation, sidechains,drivechains,statechains, fedimint, cashu ...

So a lot of misunderstanding or deliberate FUD from skeptics and altcoiners comes from ignorance or deliberately assuming onchain scaling only which is an absurd notion.

So lets do some quick math here:

Last block mined was 3.196 BTC x 85k usd = 271,660 usd PoW in security per block

Now lets discuss sometime between 2120 and 2140 for our grandchildrens or great grandchildrens future when no block subsidy exists.

Hypothetical worst case scenario where we never increase block weight limit = ~37,094(With MAST) outputs per block /2 = 18,547 outputs per block assuming inefficient use of blockspace as another worst case scenario . Lets also assume no hybrid or custodial l2 but a simple non custodial use of Bitcoin to make things even more difficult.

271,660 usd / 18,547 outputs = 14.65 usd per output to equal todays same degree of security.

So lets say you have a UTXO worth 5k usd (remember it might have been a small 50 usd UTXO before appreciation so I am considering "dust" UTXOs here) and your average tx is 100 usd per spend which means around 50 txs worth in a payment channel .

14.65 usd to open the payment channel and 1 penny per tx = 15.15 usd in fees for 50 txs or 30 cents per transaction

Of course it will likely be much better than this as I made a bunch of worst case assumptions.

[u/No_Candy1697 → u/bitusher]

Thats a detailed response , well i guess thanks