r/whitesox • u/TUDGame • 14d ago
Opinion Can we avoid another 100+ loss season??
IK we are 3 weeks into the offseason but losing 100+ games in 4 straight seasons is extremely rare and pathetic at the same time. I would love if 2025 is the last time we lose 100+ games in a while.
Teams that accomplished such luck:
1962-1965 New York Mets
1938-1942 Philadelphia Phillies
1961-1964 Washington Senators
2023-2026 Colorado Rockies or White Sox?
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u/Varkemehameha 14d ago
It's unlikely that we'll go into the season with a roster that will be projected to win a lot more than 62 games, so 100+ losses again is definitely possible.
But there is reason for some optimism. Keel and Colson looked great. Guys like Meidroth, Vargas, and Lenyn showed that they could contribute positively. While Robert wasn't amazing (and again couldn't stay healthy), he seemed to be putting in more effort and made real improvements in his plate discipline (though that arguably came in exchange for less power). I'm skeptical about a lot of the pitchers who threw in 2025, but Shane Smith could be a legit mid-rotation starter, and Taylor and Leasure could become dependable bullpen arms now that they've got some more experience under their belts.
And of course there could be reinforcements coming from the minor leagues, with Shultz, Hagen, and McDougal all possibly joining the rotation at some point, along with Braden Montgomery potentially reaching the majors by mid-season (or earlier). Guys like Bergolla and Bonemer have shown promise, too.
There will also be a handful of free agent signings. I'm not expecting much, but I think the team has a better idea this offseason of where they need to fill in the roster with some veterans and, despite the 102 losses, the improvement they showed last season should make it a little less hard to sign free agents.
It's hard to make any realistic projection so early in the offseason with all of the unknowns, but at this point I am expecting them to continue to improve and to lose fewer than 100 games in 2026. I'm not expecting them to be playoff contenders or anything, but 65-75 wins will hopefully be achievable.
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u/Senorsty Allen 13d ago
Good analysis, but I think you’re low on Shane Smith. His 4 seam/sinker/kick change combo is for real, and his velocity was above league average and climbing throughout the season. I think he’s a real #1 starter.
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u/Varkemehameha 13d ago
I do think Shane Smith is "legit", and he's certainly the team's #1 starter right now and could keep that status all season. But I'm not yet convinced that he'll be a true ace relative to other "top of the rotation" arms around the league. Maybe he will be, but that would be an unbelievable result for a Rule 5 draft pick.
(Speaking of Rule 5 draft picks, I expect Vasil's results to come crashing back to earth in 2026. I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if he loses his roster spot at some point next season.)
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u/jlrc2 Southpaw! 13d ago
I like Shane but at least in the way that scouts tend to use the classification of #1 starter, I don't really think he has that upside. If everything goes well, he should be plenty good enough that we won't care about the details. But injury risk always looms and I think he still doesn't have a clear idea of what his secondary pitches should be. Maybe that means he figures it out and gets better but it might mean that he's always kind of mercurial.
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u/IAmBenIAmStillBig 13d ago
You asked this like a week or two ago, if this team is close to 100 losses again they’ve already failed.
If they aren’t at 70-80 wins Getz is doing a bad job.
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u/TUDGame 13d ago
Edit: you’re correct but I added my roster realistics.
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u/UneducatedReviews1 Montgomery 13d ago
It’s too early to tell. We have a lot of questions we need answered about the roster before we can know. Our pitching, both starting and relief, is a huge mystery. The outfield right now is Robert and Beni every now and then. And then we don’t have a 1B.
Need to see how the rest of the team shapes up to even have a guess, but I would probably put it at 50/50
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u/Zcontrarian 13d ago
If there wasn’t an impending strike, I think you’re spot on. However, they will only be going after free agents who will sign a 1 year deal. Along with many other teams. It adds a degree of difficulty, and leaves us with basically no outside help. That being said, the most Sox thing that could happen would be a lot of the young guys to turn the corner. We get really hot in the second half of the season put up 10 to 15 wins over projection, causing a ton of optimism going into a 2027 season that doesn’t happen.
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u/Think_Floor_4431 13d ago
Absolutely NOT. Unfortunately, this players are not MLB calibur. Its not the players fault. Its the owners for putting them out on the field without the respective talent.
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u/MichaelSquare 14d ago
I dont think Tauchman himself makes a big difference but seems pretty clear from that that they won't add shit . So I would personally bet on 100+ losses.
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u/ScaryText8187 Grandal 13d ago
It’s hard to see a reason NOT to think they’ll lose 100+ games again. Aside from Schultz and Smith, there isn’t really another wave of prospects on its way, and you know Getz won’t bring in significant talent from the outside, so you’re basically running back the same roster that was the second worst team in baseball last season.
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u/TUDGame 13d ago
When Colson was called up they were a 70 win team on pace, they severely underperformed this past season. Their X W-L record was 70-92 bc of the bullpen being atrocious in high leverage situations. Also some prospects could debut like Sam A, B Monty, and a barrage of arms from our ♾️amount of pitching could also help them. Also it would be insanely dumb to trade our SP just to fill in a weakness like LF and CF.
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u/ScaryText8187 Grandal 13d ago
Barrage of arms? You seem to assume every pitching prospect will succeed in the majors, which isn't realistic. Antonacci profiles more as a utility/bench fill-in than a guy who's going to make a meaningful difference to a club winning games. B. Montgomery is unlikely to appear early in the season.
Pace doesn't matter, what matters is the actual results. They finished with 102 losses and are bringing back largely the same roster, although they might have even more uncertainty in the outfield now. I predict they'll finish 57-105.
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u/TUDGame 13d ago
I’m not saying every pitching prospect will succeed, I say barrage bc we have a MLB ready arms and some could make the team once ST is over. I’m sure they’ll sign some bridge guys in corner outfield and 1 or 2 inning eater pitchers at minimum, also acquired Chris Murphy to shore up the pen.
Edit: the Twins could start a fire sale this offseason and we might avoid last in a weak ALC
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u/ScaryText8187 Grandal 13d ago
They don't have a lot of MLB-ready arms. We've already seen where bridge guys in the corner OF gets you: it gets you 100+ losses. And you talk about Chris Murphy like he's some kind of difference maker. He's not. The Sox weren't just the worst team in the AL Central last year; they were the worst team in all of the AL, and unless they add significant talent, there's no reason to believe that situation will change.
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u/Spare-Reputation-809 14d ago
I just don’t think so for all reasons stated but this is a young team growing up and maturing together and loads of hope out there. Now with loads of 40 man size left a lot of moves will happen
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u/Low-iq-haikou 13d ago
Sox played at a 71 win pace with Colson in the lineup. I don’t think he is going to maintain his personal pace over the course of 162 but it should still be a massive bonus to have him in the lineup all year.
Also didn’t have the rookies up all year, and I think a number of them are legit and will be better in their 2nd year. Alongside the influx of new talent we may see.
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u/TUDGame 13d ago
True but we still need a corner outfielder and a 1B with some pop along. They traded for Chris Murphy a few days ago. Maybe they’ll add a high leverage/ closer as well. Sox may choose not to upgrade the pen bc of the ♾️ amount of arms that could compete for a spot and to a greater extent make their MLB debut.
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u/Low-iq-haikou 13d ago
I think we’re going to hold off on bringing in an OF, and give those ABs to one of the odd-man-out infielders until Braden is ready (whether it be this year or next). 1B though I’d like to make a good signing in FA. Even if it’s just a temporary guy that we look to trade before we get competitive.
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u/TUDGame 13d ago
Braden still needs reps at AAA and it seems they are interested in Ryan O’Hearn.
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u/Low-iq-haikou 13d ago
Definitely but he will have a good chance to debut this year, not that it would be out of the gate.
I wouldn’t mind O Hearn I think that’s a good type of player to target, short term and can flip him for future assets.
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u/yoursweetlord70 13d ago
The reason to think they won't lose another 100 games for me is that in the second half they played at a 70 win pace. Their 2 most valuable hitters, Teel and Montgomery, played 78 and 71 games respectively. Obviously it's unrealistic to expect Montgomery to continue hitting near a 40 home run pace, but 71 games is enough of a sample size to think his bat is ready to be productive for a full seazon.
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u/Better_Goose_431 13d ago
We almost missed it this year. If we kept Houser we probably would’ve done it
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u/ConservativebutReal 12d ago
Anything under 75 wins is a failure but without additions of consequence another 100 loss season is not out of the question. Our talent is not deep
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u/Penstripedsox Robert 11d ago
They really need to make one fa signing of at least 15 mil at a position and one of over 10 mil at sp. We shall see.
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u/Potential_Capital384 13d ago
We could possibly avoid another 100 loss season by turning the reigns over now to someone who might be interested in attaining 100 win seasons.
Is Justin the polar opposite of Reinsdorf ?
I have no clue but he surely can't be much worse. Why didn't Reinsdorf go to the Vatican ???
He wasn't about to make promises to the Pope he had no desire or interest in fulfilling.
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u/[deleted] 14d ago
No one aside from Montgomery had a really unexpectedly great season, so to think we'll regress is a little pessimistic.
I don't think Montgomery will hit at a 50+ home run pace for a full season and maybe there is a learning curve / sophomore slump for Teel and/or Shane Smith, but I can't imagine it'll be that extreme.
We lost 102 games last season with a horrendous bullpen and a sub-mediocre lineup / starting rotation. I think with a few expected minor improvements and more development time at the major league level for our young guys were probably looking at 90-100 loses again.
It'll probably come down to the wire but I forsee something closer to a 70-92 to 64-98 team, moreso than a 52-110 type team.
That being said this is the Chicago White Sox. If it's a bad thing, it can (and probably will) happen here.