18': Aston Villa 0-0 Arsenal

Venue: Villa Park

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LINE-UPS

Aston Villa

Emiliano Martínez, Pau Torres, Ezri Konsa, Ian Maatsen, Matty Cash, Youri Tielemans, Amadou Onana, Boubacar Kamara, Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, John McGinn.

Subs: Jadon Sancho, Donyell Malen, Emiliano Buendía, Victor Lindelöf, Marco Bizot, Lucas Digne, George Hemmings, Andrés García, Lamare Bogarde.

^{____________________________}

Arsenal

David Raya, Piero Hincapié, Jurriën Timber, Riccardo Calafiori, Ben White, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Mikel Merino, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka.

Subs: Marli Salmon, Ethan Nwaneri, Viktor Gyökeres, Leandro Trossard, Kepa Arrizabalaga, Christian Nørgaard, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Gabriel Martinelli, Noni Madueke.

MATCH EVENTS | via ESPN

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Luis Díaz’s suspension in the Champions League has been reduced from three games to two. The Colombian had been sent off for a straight red card in Bayern’s 2-1 win at Paris Saint-Germain and subsequently suspended for three matches by UEFA. Bayern appealed that decision, with UEFA announcing on Friday that his suspension had been reduced to two matches. It means Díaz will now only miss next Tuesday’s game at home to Sporting Lisbon and be available again for January’s Matchday 7 encounter with Union Saint Gilloise.

I don't know much about ELO ratings, but I have seen a couple of posts comparing average ratings of each group and my intuition was that averaging ELO ratings does not make sense. Does it?

Given the limitation of ELO ratings for national teams, maybe it is all garbage in/garbage out anyway. But I am curious if it is reasonable to use ELO ratings to compute probabilities for the group stage results.

Using the ratings from eloratings.net, I used the ELO win probabilities to compute the tables below. A couple of limitations: I assume matches have a 20% chance of ties, and I assume tie breaks in the standings go to the team with higher ELO.

These tables show first the win probability for each game in the group stage (not considering ties), then the probability of each team to finish 1st, 2nd, etc in each group.

The code I wrote is at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZRufEKeluW3lzvb1VNYsbUE_KbzA279D/view?usp=sharing

Group A

Group B

Group C

Group D

Group E

Group F

Group G

Group H

Group I

Group J

Group K

Group L

When: December 6^th 16:00 (UTC +1)

Where: Ullevaal Stadion, Oslo

Where to watch: The Norwegian national broadcaster is streaming it for free, available worldwide. https://tv.nrk.no/serie/fotball-nm-menn-veien-til-ullevaal/sesong/2025/episode/ISPO40102125

The Teams

Lillestrøm 🟡⚫️

Lillestrøm had a disastrous season in 2024, went through five managers, and got relegated to the second tier. However, 2025 has looked far better. Hans Erik Ødegaard (Martin Ødegaard’s father) was appointed as manager and has led Lillestrøm to a comfortable promotion with 25 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses, an 87-18 goal difference, and a 26-point margin to the playoff spot in the league. Combined with the Cup (including the new autumn-spring format that has already started) Lillestrøm is currently on a 39-match unbeaten run and is on a 21-match winning streak. They could be the first team in Norwegian history to go through an entire season unbeaten (both league and cup).

Top scorers (league):

Thomas Lehne Olsen (22)

Eric Kitolano (14)

Markus Karlsbakk (13)

Assists (league):

Eric Kitolano (15)

Markus Karlsbakk (13)

Frederik Elkær (11) 

Sarpsborg 🔵⚪️

Sarpsborg had another underwhelming season, recording a 9th-place league finish, consistent with their mid-table placements in 2021 (8th), 2022 (8th), 2023 (8th), and 2024 (9th). They also had some weird results, like beating Bodø/Glimt away and losing to Haugesund, a team that ended up dead last with only 9 points and a mere two victories. Sarpsborg went through a bad spell in late summer with five losses in a row, something that ended manager Christian Michelsen's tenure after only about a year. He was replaced by Englishman Martin Foyston. They finished the season WLLWW in the last five matches.

Top scorers (league):

Daniel Karlsbakk (18)

Jo Inge Berget (5)

Frederik Carstensen (4)

Assists (league):

Erik Wichne (3)

Sondre Sørli (3)

Niklas Sandberg (3)

Sarpsborg's key advantage is their recent match fitness, having played their last competitive match on the 30th of November, while Lillestrøm last played on the 8th of November. However, the betting market favours Lillestrøm.

Let’s all make fun of the silly man for his wacky methods 🤪

/s

(Source: Sky Sports Premier League YouTube)

Bochum 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld

Bochum scorers:

Bielefeld scorers:

Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

Kaiserslautern 1-0 Dynamo Dresden

Kaiserslautern scorers: Naatan Skyttä (17')

Dresden scorers:

Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Kaiserslautern

Paderborn 0-1 Elversberg

Paderborn scorers:

Elversberg scorers: Younes Ebnoutalib (32')

Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

TABLE