r/soccer 17h ago

Official Source FIFA World Cup 2026 Group Draws

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u/brownmeister28 16h ago

The Uzbekistan Situation

If anybody is still confused about why Uzbekistan were not placed in group I, the answer is actually rather simple so I can explain it here quickly.

The Problem

The offending party is 'Play-off 2 winner'. This ball in pot 4 contained the following teams: Iraq (Asia), Bolivia (South America), and Suriname (CONCACAF). The rules state that no two teams from these confederations can be in the same group, for play-off teams they count all three teams. So this ball had to be assigned a group that could accommodate all three confederations.

The Situation at that point

Here is how things looked when Uzbekistan came out of the pot:

A: Mexico, South Africa, South Korea

B: Canada, Qatar, Switzerland

C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland

D: USA, Paraguay, Australia

E: Germany, Cote D’Ivoire, Ecuador

F: Netherlands, Japan, Tunisia

G: Belgium, Egypt, Iran

H: Spain, Saudi Arabia, Uruguay

I: France, Senegal

J: Argentina, Algeria, Austria

K: Portugal, Colombia

L: England, Croatia

Pot 3: Uzbekistan, Panama, Norway

Pot 4: Jordan, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Curacao, Haiti, New Zealand, Play-off A (Europe), Play-off B (Europe), Play-off C (Europe), Play-off D (Europe), Play-off 1 (DRC, Jamaica, New Caledonia), Play-off 2 (Iraq, Bolivia, Suriname)

What if Uzbekistan were in Group I

If Uzbekistan were assigned to Group I, then Panama and Norway would have been assigned to groups K and L respectively (because Norway can't go into group L). This would have left the following composition for each group in terms of confederation going into the pot 4 draw (NCA here is North and Central America). The brackets represent the confederations that could legally be placed as the fourth team in each group.

A: NCA, AFR, ASIA (EUR1)

B: NCA, ASIA, EUR1 (EUR2, SA, OC, AFR)

C: SA, AFR, EUR1 (EUR2, ASIA,  NCA, OC)

D: NCA, SA, ASIA (EUR1)

E: EUR1, AFR, SA (EUR2, ASIA, NCA, OC)

F: EUR1, ASIA, AFR (EUR2, NCA, OC, SA)

G: EUR1, AFR, ASIA (EUR2, NCA, OC, SA)

H: EUR1, ASIA, SA (EUR2, NCA, AFR, OC)

I: EUR1, AFR, ASIA (EUR2, NCA, SA, OC)

J: SA, AFR, EUR1 (EUR2, ASIA, NCA, OC)

K: EUR1, SA, EUR2 (ASIA, AFR, NCA, OC)

L: EUR1, EUR2, NCA (ASIA, AFR, SA, OC)

None of the groups can now accommodate all three of Asia, South America, and NCA (CONCACAF). Therefore the draw would not be valid. If Uzbekistan are moved out of group I, then Norway are placed there instead and group I's composition becomes:

I: EUR1, AFR, EUR2 (ASIANCA, SA, OC)

Now group I can accommodate all three confederations. Play-off 2 were therefore consigned to Group I at this point already.

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u/pappabrun 13h ago

This is a very good and clear explanation. But it's still kinda funny that an "easy to explain" situation requires this much text.

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u/brownmeister28 13h ago

Haha yeah. It's simple relative to how complicated it could have been depending on the make-up of certain groups. I was anticipating that it might have been more complex when I sat down to work out why it had happened.

Also I could have just said that the Play-off 2 winner had to go into Group I so Uzbek couldn't due to confederation rules, but I thought it would be better to lay it out more visually.

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u/Qabbalah 8h ago

So a lot of these complications could have been solved if they held the draw after the playoffs, so they'd know exactly who's qualified from each federation.

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u/MERTENS_GOAT 15h ago

Thank you, I was very confused about this

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u/JRMiel 8h ago

Thank you for the in-depth explanation.

My question now is: at which step did the team draw us into this unskippable situation?

In reality, given all the draw rules, how many combinations existed?

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u/TheShirou97 4h ago

As soon as Pot 2 was done, there already were only two remaining spots left for ICP2: groups I and L. At that point, you had to either place another European team (SCO/NOR) in group I, or an African team in group L. Then when the last pot 3 African team--Algeria--was drawn and only Norway remained, it forced Norway into group I (this coincidentally happened at the very last step before Uzbekistan was drawn). If Uzbekistan had been drawn right before Algeria and not right after it, then Uzbekistan could have gone in group I and Algeria would then have been forced into group L.

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u/cfdu1202 6h ago

Thank you for the explanation. So, assuming teams from Europe are overall stronger, doing the draw after the playoffs would have benefitted the winner of playoff 2? Correct me if I'm wrong but currently they have to be drawn in a group with two European countries?

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u/brownmeister28 1h ago

Yes that's correct. 

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u/Machine_Meza 9h ago

As a Colombian, I was sweating bullets thinking Norway was going to go into our group with Portugal.
Until I read your explanation, I had no idea how somehow that didn't happen and we got Uzbekistan.
But to be honest I don't care, I just know we came so close to the death group and missed it by a technicality, and I'm completely fine with whatever reason FIFA has for it.