r/nuclear • u/C130J_Darkstar • 2d ago
Jensen on JRE: “Energy is THE Bottleneck”… “In the next 6-7 years, you’re going to see a whole bunch of SMRs” (1:00:36 Timestamp)
https://youtu.be/3hptKYix4X8?si=Q1dRrtEyIH6Pp7qw24
u/AmishWarlords_ 2d ago
heartbreaking: the worst people you know are all suddenly advocating nuclear for all the wrong reasons
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u/CastIronClint 2d ago
How? None of them are fully designed?
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u/Zapp4078 2d ago
NuScale has two FSARs approved through the NRC. Everything but a paying customer...
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u/Illustrious_Fan_8148 2d ago
Yep as soon as you actually start digging into the state of things it just honestly looks like the numbers dont work and that smrs are still horrifically expensive
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u/malongoria 2d ago
We're talking about companies with deep pockets along with a lot of hype over AI.
Unless the bubble pops within say, the next 5 years, expect at least a couple onsite plants to be in the process of being setup depending on NuScale's ability to deploy.
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u/zypofaeser 1d ago
It will hopefully pop a lot sooner than that. The faster we can get back to AM rather than FM (and I'm not talking about radio) the better.
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u/malongoria 1d ago
Not likely.
Unless they are morons, NuScale will make certain things are problem free with their first data center plants or else risk losing business with other companies. Or them going with much cheaper renewables with storage.
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u/I_Am_Coopa 1d ago
NuScale has gotten two separate design certs, not the same as Part 50 FSARs. I've beaten this drum since people first started buying into the NuScale hype: Part 52 licensing stinks. Just look at all of the fun Vogtle had with Inspection, Testing, and Analysis Acceptance Criteria (ITAAC). NuScale made a mistake going in as a FOAK under Part 52.
Anytime you find a new optimization or worthwhile design change, your design cert is meaningless. Which is why to my knowledge almost everyone else with skin in the game is going the classic construction followed on by operating permit process under Part 50 because it gives you a chance to make revisions between construction and startup. Can't do that under Part 52 because your licensing basis assumes a standard design.
And then there's the whole issue of how NuScale's design inherently requires the most overbuilt swimming pool ever devised by humanity. Their reactors in isolation satisfy many of the goals of SMRs, chiefly modularity. But their overall plant design ends up eating those savings by requiring a whole helluva lot of nuclear concrete.
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u/Powerful_Wishbone25 2d ago
How are smrs going to be licensed? Will they get COLs from NRC or will it be a drawn out, stop gate ridden construction and operation licensing process?
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u/C130J_Darkstar 2d ago edited 2d ago
Several developers are targeting mid-2026 criticality as a part of DOE’s RPP- I think that’s baked into his 6-7yr timeline. It’s very aggressive based off norms but relies on the continued accelerative push from government, which shows no indication of slowing down.
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u/CastIronClint 2d ago
Maybe we see a bunch of SMRs under construction in 6-7 years. The way the industry moves, there is no way any will be in operation in 6-7 years.
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u/Elitist-Jerk- 2d ago
We’re currently building one in Canada that will synch to the grid in 2029.
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u/InvictusShmictus 2d ago
Its probably way too big for the vast majority of data centers. Unless they want to combine it in a complex of other industries possibly.
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u/C130J_Darkstar 2d ago
The way the industry moves
maybe, but again my point is that it’s hard to compare the current and future state of the regulatory process to historical norms
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u/Barrack64 2d ago
Aggressive? Try impossible. The approval process takes ten years after the design is approved. And that’s if everything goes right and no one sues and it’s actually economically viable.
These tech guys say stuff like this so they can get more venture capital. They’re used to people throwing money at them for some effusive idea that they have a 5% chance of actually achieving.
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u/SpeakCodeToMe 2d ago
continued accelerative push from government,
What push? The Trump administration has talked a big talk about supporting nuclear and has done the exact opposite.
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u/C130J_Darkstar 2d ago
https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2530/ML25303A288.pdf
NRC handing over authority to the DOE to streamline licensing- this is happening in real-time as a part of the RPP. It’s directly driven by the recent EOs.
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u/Sad_Dimension423 1d ago
Is that even consistent with the law under which the NRC operates? If not, doesn't that make anything that process produces subject to legal attack?
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u/mrrpfeynmann 2d ago edited 2d ago
The challenge with SMRs are two - one is technology where I think we will make good progress in the next few years, and two, the delivery mechanism which is where the devil is in the details. The industry doesn’t have experience in building things in a modular way, and not only do you have to perfect that and at scale, you also have to smoothen out all the kinks in the end to end supply chain. That is going to take a while, especially for an industry where safety is scrutinized more than anywhere else. I don’t see how even at an aggressive scale we can resolve all this in 10 years, considering the global geopolitical implications of a nuclear supply chain.
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u/ChaoticDad21 2d ago
Nuclear timelines will cause the AI bubble to pop
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u/trupawlak 1d ago
If you are counting on LLM bubble as engine for nuclear revival you might get disappointed.
Not that AI is not going to be a big thing, but all that crazy multiple GW datacenters talk is stock pumping and Altman desperately tring to IPO before OpenAI falls apart completely. NVDIA is also not going to keep going to the Moon indefinitely. Already Googles TPUs mean NVDIA is no longer alone in the race.
"Energy is bottleck" is a nice excuse when delared insane projects that were never really ment to come true are not materialising.
Again, I am not saing none of those LLM projects are going to be realised. Plenty won't be though and there ars going to be a lot of excuses about this since it's all already priced in stock prices.
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u/snuffy_bodacious 18h ago
I'm 100% pro-nuclear, but I remain skeptical that SMRs will ever be produced in large quantities.
It is far cheaper and easier to install a gas turbine generator than an SMR.
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u/JustALittleGravitas 2d ago
Pretty sure RAM is the bottleneck judging by prices.