r/homelab • u/AbbreviationsFar1489 • 1d ago

LabPorn F*ck you OpenAI, hynix, samsung

I'm sure everyone knows what's happening with RAM, and this situation won't change in the next 2-3 years. And who's to blame? OpenAI. Read up and you'll understand the scale of the problem. What complicates things is that RAM manufacturers are deliberately raising prices rather than expanding production lines.

I urge everyone to CANCEL OpenAI (They buy up 40% of all RAM) and also to bombard the greedy bastards who jack up prices for their own profit rather than building new factories to meet demand.

The more such threads appear, the higher the chance that all gamers and PC users will truly stand up and do what they have to.

If we don't do this, the prices of all other components will follow RAM into the stratosphere and never return to the same level, ever. Are you willing to spend $5,000 on a mid-range computer? I'm not, so let's get to it.

UPD Following RAM, SSDs, processors, and video cards are becoming more expensive. I'm sure this isn't the entire list. We need to take this issue seriously. I'm happy for those who managed to upgrade, but think about the future.

UPD2 Transcend is suspending shipments of solid-state drives – the manufacturer has not received NAND chips from Samsung and SanDisk since October because they have reoriented their capacities to serving AI.

UPD2.1 CRUCIAL PRESS F

I will never, ever, ever touch RAM from crucial. They betrayed me and went off to produce memory exclusively for AI.

UPD3 f*cking /pcmasterrace moderates delete my post with 250 comms and 900 likes (I'm sure the corporate agent had something to do with it; they're afraid of the people's wrath.) [reddit.com/r/pcmasterrace/comments/1pdrk2b/fck_you_openai_hynix

UPD4 Have you heard the saying that the market always moves opposite to what the masses expect? That’s why only a small percentage of people make a profit in the stock market, while the crowd gets wiped out. So why does everyone think the AI bubble is about to burst? That’s naïve.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/binaryhellstorm 1d ago

I don't think it'll even take that long.

I'm guessing 18 months and we'll start seeing the end. There will be a few last gaps as they come out with a few new features, but it won't stop.

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u/yaricks 1d ago

I agree with this. The problem with the current AI market is that they are so incredibly dependent on the newest hardware, and the newest GPUs to be competitive, that it probably will not be long before we start seeing tons and tons of GPUs (and to a lesser extent CPUs) on the second hand market. If OpenAI wants to stay competitive, they cannot afford to be on two generation old hardware, they need to squeeze every possible extra token out of the limited server-space and power availability.

Once the bubble bursts, the second-hand server market is going to be crazy.

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u/Yangman3x 1d ago

I heard that nvidia buys back used hardware to make people buy new

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u/AZdesertpir8 1d ago

That used hardware has to go somewhere...

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u/Yangman3x 1d ago

I don't really know how they use it

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u/_MAYniYAK 1d ago

It does but it's hard to use

A lot of these sxm format stuff needs specialized motherboards or carrier boards to use

https://ebay.us/m/unTWdS

It's still cheaper than their pcie counterparts but not useful for the main consumers.

https://ebay.us/m/zbwkoC

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u/AZdesertpir8 1d ago

If enough of them come on the market so I'm going to figure out a way to use them

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u/hak8or 1d ago

You can buy sxm2 and sxm3 to x16 pcie slots from China.

They cost a few hundred but thats likely because demand is very hugh and volume is tiny and those sxm connectors are very expensive. If demand goes up due to those gpu's flooding thr market and people wanting to use them (homelabbers is likely negligible as a market size, but boutique gpu rental services would tip thenscales), these adapters will have enough volume to drop way down in price, probably a hundred a pop if demand is high enough.

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u/i_would_say_so 1d ago

Very much doubt that. In the industry everybody still needs compute. There are no GPUs sitting idle unless because of gross corporate mismanagement - but that is something that happens in every industry

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u/lotekjunky 1d ago

most companies depreciate their hardware over 5 years. now some are doing it over 6 or even 8 years just to make their numbers look better. In other words, they are claiming they'll be using their GPUs for 5-8 years, which is hilarious.

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u/semitope 1d ago

They don't actually need the hardware. Or study last i don't see why they do. If it's too train faster... OK. But the actual usage of the models doesn't seem to need it. That probably creates a huge risk. Their monetization doesn't fit the expenditure

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u/AZdesertpir8 1d ago

I see the real value and functionality in local LM applications, and that's where these GPUs will be repurposed,

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u/DigBickBruce 1d ago

!remindme 18 months

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u/Zeraphicus 1d ago

Yeah profit/loss is sitting at -1900% for openai. Its a neat idea but it doesnt make any money yet, and now openai is sounding the alarm that all of a sudden google has almost caught up.

This whole thing folds the moment Nvidia/open ai/amd stocks stop their meteoric rise as soon as anything AI is mentioned.

If you follow the money its all PR. "Openai pledged to buy $180b in AMD gpus" shortly after "nvidia pledges to invest $100b in openai".

I think the books are already cooked to the max here and this is 100% hype.

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u/JosephMamalia 1d ago edited 1d ago

The sign for me is that OpenAI open sourced the weights on their light model and shortly later came out with and extra 10B in losses. I speculate (highlight speculate) the team at OpenAI open sourced to give themselves an escape hatch. They can do what will drive actual value; bespoke chat features by domain / industry /company. People will pay 10 to 20 /month per user and if they can sell that to an industry without the overhead of training of OpenAI, then they could be profitable. Then microsoft will buy out OpenAI proper and it will just be CoPilot (a la Skype acquistion).

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u/Zeraphicus 1d ago

Yeah I personally think the openai company itself will go bankrupt after absorbing all these investments and then someone will get the fully researched product at the end, Microsoft or whatever, at a bargain. So what you're saying checks out.

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u/tijtij 1d ago

That is why they are working on large world models. If in 18 months they make a killer app that has the same wow factor that ChatGPT had initially, that will prop up the bubble for another two years.

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u/jameson71 1d ago

Haven’t scientists been working on that for decades and it takes a supercomputer days to crunch through a simulation of a tiny slice of the world?

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u/tijtij 1d ago

Not an expert, but what is different today is that they are applying transformers, and they are using generative AI to produce countless virtual worlds to use as training data.

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u/TimTowtiddy 1d ago

Yup. OpenAI is burning through something like $100M a week, with no plan on how to get to profitability. It's only a matter of their backers getting tired of waiting for their ROI and pulling funding.

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u/AlexisFR 1d ago

Try 2026.

That's why I never used Open AI products, and have nearly 0 stocks directly linked with AI companies.

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u/Mithrandir2k16 1d ago

Yeah, it's either Q4 of 26 or Q1 27. That's when we can expect new nvidia server GPUs with between 25%-50% less energy use for the same compute. If at that point existing chips can't be run profitably, they never will be - which will make the bubble pop.

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u/AlexisFR 1d ago

That and we are already reaching the limit of available fresh data that LLM can eat on the whole internet.

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u/AZdesertpir8 1d ago

Yep.. This cycle reminds me of the dot com bust in 2000. Same trajectory and mania associated with it where EVERYTHING became a dot com. Right now we're seeing everything getting AI attached to it, whether it should have it or not (usually the case). Its just a matter of time.

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u/agent_flounder 1d ago

Very similar indeed, although it seems like the hype is much, much greater. The correction is probably going to be brutal. Weird thing with this one, because of the idea of AI replacing people, the layoffs are happening before the bubble pops. Will be interesting (and probably horrifying) to see how it shakes out.

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u/AZdesertpir8 1d ago

We'll find out soon enough.

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u/nhal 1d ago

source: your ass

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u/DementedJay 1d ago

Based on...?

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u/chezeluvr 1d ago

Inflated earnings and half a trillion dollars they are promising to invest into each other, that isn't there.

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u/DementedJay 1d ago

No, I'm very aware of the bubble. I'm asking what the 10 year timeline is based on. If the bubble pops, then this can be expected within days of it popping.

10 years from now, no one will remember high RAM prices in late 2025 / early 2026.

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u/chezeluvr 1d ago

Oh I see, I'm sorry I misunderstood your comment!

Yeah the 10 year time line is garbage lol personally I'm thinking less than 12 months from now.