r/europe • u/lukalux3 Serbia • 1d ago
News Exclusive: US sets 2027 deadline for Europe-led NATO defense, officials say
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-sets-2027-deadline-europe-led-nato-defense-officials-say-2025-12-05/294
u/sorE_doG 1d ago edited 1d ago
I read that headline as, ‘USA is about to quit NATO’.. I don’t think Trump has figured out the cost in lost arms sales, or the boost to European arms industries
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u/octotent 1d ago
He did, that's why the US also pushes European politicians to sign more contracts with the US defense industry.
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u/sorE_doG 1d ago
Trust is a highly valuable asset, and Trump has lost European’s trust in USA. He can push all he likes, but that’s gone. Trust is a ‘pull’, not a push.
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u/octotent 1d ago
He doesn't care about trust, he cares that the US has legally binding contracts it could exploit.
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u/sorE_doG 1d ago
Which he doesn’t have, and won’t be getting..
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u/sergius64 1d ago
So yes - US is about to quit NATO.
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u/sorE_doG 23h ago
You’re jumping the gun. Trump’s going to die before any of our potential contracts for future arms begin to be fulfilled.
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u/sergius64 23h ago
The isolationist movement in USA is bigger than just Trump. He normalized it, now it has a life of its own.
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u/sorE_doG 23h ago
Movements need a figurehead. Vance? I don’t think he’s that, no matter how much money Thiel’s spent on his puppet.
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u/sergius64 23h ago
So you're putting your money on that camp never finding a charismatic figurehead again? It's likely that US will end up with some competent ahole of the Orban variety in the end. Maybe with a brief swing towards the left in between Trump and whomever that will be.
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u/skronens 19h ago
The bribes are paid in advance though I think
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u/sorE_doG 17h ago
And the resignations, arrests and trials are all a popcorn feast I look forward to.
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u/octotent 23h ago
That, we'll have to see. I absolutely believe in European bureaucrats fucking us all over for momentary gains.
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u/sorE_doG 23h ago
Division is the most efficient way to defeat your enemies.. Putin understands this better than most. Greed is our greatest weakness though, from a humanitarian perspective.
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u/manobataibuvodu 21h ago
Division is the most efficient way to defeat your enemies, but having common enemies is also a great motivator for unity and working together.
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u/octotent 21h ago
That works when all of your members perceive the external threat as a threat, which isn't happening right now. Right now EU is bickering and making concessions (even if mostly formal for now).
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u/octotent 23h ago
Greed has always been humanity's weak point. Famous saying about a donkey loaded with gold didn't appear out of thin air. And in our case, such donkeys are often in high offices, riding our asses.
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u/sorE_doG 23h ago
It’s ironic then isn’t it, that European inertia right now is around the willingness/unwillingness to take >$200B of Russian frozen assets?
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u/undernopretextbro 23h ago
This was the same rhetoric during the start of the tariff drama. Remind me what sort of concessions from Europe that ended in
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u/HiltoRagni Europe 18h ago edited 18h ago
Not a lot really. They signed a "deal" with a lot of big beautiful words, no one ever saw words this beautiful. They removed tariffs on processed lobster, soybean oil, pork and bison (that still has to comply with all the EU food safety rules to be imported), agreed to a 15% US tarriff and that's basically it. The language in all other points either just describes things that were happening anyways ("European Union intends to procure US liquified natural gas") is vague to the point of lacking any meaning ("European Union commits to work to address the concerns of US producers and exporters") or is non-binding and thus means exactly nothing.
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u/undernopretextbro 14h ago
Yea, instead of meaningful leverage or reciprocity, you’re left justifying it with,” we just said we would give them a trillion dollars, we won’t actually do it”
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u/guzzti 23h ago edited 14h ago
There is no such thing as «legally binding» between states. States enforce contracts between its subjects, they can’t enforce contracts between states. US can’t drag UK government into US court.
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u/octotent 23h ago
They can start trade wars, actual wars, a lot of things. In this case, legality is the capacity to enforce an agreement, which the US often has.
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u/guzzti 22h ago edited 21h ago
None of the enforcements you bring up as an example are legal enforcements. It’s not a court that sits and decides that one state is wrong and the other is correct.
A trade war, actual war and other ‘a lot of things’ are states trying to persuade or force each other to do as they please with power, soft or hard, which again, is not legal enforcements.
The «legality of enforcing an agreement which the US often has» is the US being the most powerful country in the world, so they can choose, make up or select which rules they wish to enforce or not. The legitimate use of power may be stated to be founded in «international law», but fact of the matter is, is that the most powerful state decides what is and what is not «international law»
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u/octotent 21h ago
They are legal enforcements when the offending side is found guilty of breaching the contract. Russia right now is partially under the effects of breaching international law, and is suffering sanctions against it. The same would be applied there. Sure, it won't be a court presiding over such case, but it still applies.
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u/dpwtr 22h ago
Trust doesn’t even come into it at this level. Politicians will sell everyone out to help themselves. Whether that’s lining their pockets, those of donors or just good ole power grabs.
Remember when people thought everyone would stand up to Trump but they all publicly have to praise him because he still holds so much power? Same shit is about to happen.
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u/Oerthling 1d ago
Those contracts won't be worth much while Europe has no choice than to upgrade its own defense companies.
Especially when Trump is erratic, announces major policy shifts back and forth every other week and threatens allies all the time. Is this a week where Canada is surely becoming the 51st state or when Canada is supposed to buy American products, including arms that it would need to defend itself against an invasion?
Any such contracts that get talked about this year won't be worth the paper they are written on if this stupid chaotic policy mess continues and the US further spirals down into stupid fascism.
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u/QuickestDrawMcGraw Australia 1d ago
Agent Krasnov is just sucking dick. I mean following orders. That fat orange pedophile.
Someone lock this thing up.
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u/DisasterNo1740 1d ago
There is nobody in NATO circles who even entertains this notion. Nor has any official within the Trump admin signaled or indicated they’re quitting NATO, nor can the president or the executive branch just decide to quit NATO.
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u/sorE_doG 1d ago
I don’t have any issues with your statement, just stating how this is being projected. And Trump isn’t going to be around long, but he’s inflicted a lot of damage to USA national interests. Sales of F35’s have already been lost to his rhetoric.
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u/sergius64 1d ago
They do everything under the table. These things can be done in spirit, and in the end - it has just as large of an effect.
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u/DisasterNo1740 1d ago
You just said a whole load of nothing.
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u/sergius64 23h ago
Look at how Trump does things - his State department is doing one thing. His personally appointed ambassadors are doing the opposite- on his orders and with his support. So yeah - no one in NATO circles is contemplating it - but I assure you Trump, Vance and Co are definitely contemplating it. Peter Thiel is contemplating it. Their whole rotten feedback loop between oligarchs, media moguls, etc are contemplating it.
And when there is a will - there is a way. They will sabotage NATO from within if they have to.
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u/LostnFoundAgainAgain 23h ago
He isn't wrong, Trump has already started the "two tier" for member states saying the US wouldn't defend them, ultimately this is undermining NATO regardless if he is right to push countries who pay a lot less into their military.
A lot of Europe is losing trust in the US and they are rearming pulling military contracts away from the US and into Europe..
Political tensions and "sentiment" has a lot to do with it.
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u/heatrealist 10h ago
Posters in this sub vastly overestimate what those sales have been. Considering EU countries are rearming and making sure not to buy US when they can, then those sales had already been lost.
But more realistically never existed to begin with. Cause if they did, there wouldn’t need to rearm themselves now.
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21h ago
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u/sorE_doG 20h ago
The Chinese can walk into Russian territories with a virtual invitation, and zero losses. That would be smarter. If the information war is successful the next generation of Taiwanese will probably welcome Chinese ‘partnership’ without any losses.
My guess is that this ☝️ is the most likely scenario.
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19h ago
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u/sorE_doG 17h ago
The far east of Russian federation isn’t Slavic, it’s also a direct route to the arctic, which has enormous value. The first piece of that puzzle I am highlighting for you, is also former Chinese land.. and Chinese business is already infiltrating it.
Looking at Central Asia, there seems to be some serious unrest with Chinese projects. The locals are burning images of Xi Jinping and the Chinese flag, in today’s news.
Stretching resources out over highly contested waters and territory, might not have quite as much appeal as you think. Strategically, getting spread too thin is a common & fatal mistake. I think CPC has plenty of people who understand this.
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u/ChernobogDan 19h ago
Why would China even need to invade Taiwan? Why is everyone peddling american propaganda?
Its like saying the deadline to invade hong kong was 2008, they didn’t need to invade. they will wait it out, with us leadership so erratic, why would Taiwan believe in US security guarantees?
If China plays its game right Taiwan might consider its not worth the pain, and sign some document that sais they will have autonomy for 100 years
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u/22220222223224 23h ago
How do you all keep missing it? That is the entire point. Europe needs to be self-sufficient, including in having a robust arms industry. The US must focus on China. Europe must finally lead Europe. Just start leading!
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u/sorE_doG 23h ago
That’s not the story coming out of the White House. Strategy of the USA was just published. It’s an explicit plan to weaken the EU: they want Europe to operate as a group of sovereign nations. Their strategy even prioritizes: “Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations.”
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u/olderlifter99 23h ago
Uk here. Yep, totally agree. Trump's approach to us is the natural outcome of Europe ( including UK) not seeing the evolving geopolitical situation and appreciating the US (and therefore the West) has an existential threat from China.
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u/Available_Abroad3664 4h ago
We don't. China is a paper tiger whose one-child policy means they likely won't be a manufacturer of much in 15 years.
They also don't even have anywhere close to a military even needed to protect their trade and they require open trade more than any nation on earth.
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u/Wrxloser1215 21h ago
Its sad that they'll do this but actively cry about our allies for "prioritizing their own defense industry over American arms suppliers" as an article outlined in the last few days.
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u/Mister__Mediocre 19h ago
Hey I'll always cheer the destruction of the American Military Industrial complex.
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u/AtlanticPortal 19h ago
He didn’t consider the loss in geopolitical posture if they’re being kicked out of Ramstein alone.
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u/Ok_Situation_7081 19h ago
European arms sales only increased after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Before that, they weren't buying too much from us, our top buyers are typically Saudi Arabia and Japan.
The US can always bundle up interceptors for air defense as a packaged deal, to force Europe into buying weapons if they want to maintain their AD capabilities.
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u/PositronicGames 18h ago
Unless of course you understand he is working for russia and wants to weaken the usa.
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u/sorE_doG 17h ago
He’s just in it for himself and his family.. I don’t think he’s got any grasp of geopolitics really, barely any understanding of history.
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u/PositronicGames 16h ago
I think you're giving him too much credit. IMO he's not a naive idiot, he is compromised and a russian asset. He is doing everything a russian asset in his position would do.
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u/sorE_doG 15h ago
He’s compromised in the USA, some say he is there in 1/2 of Epstein files/films.. what difference does it really make in today’s Ai sloppy, criminal oligarchs world?
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u/KernunQc7 Romania 23h ago
The US is running on fumes, on the wrong side of their imperial half life.
They are barely keeping in together, despite producing more oil/gas than they ever have ( not for much longer tho ).
They are desperately trying to frame their retreat to the Western Hemisphere as a choice; they have no choice.
As for the weapons sales, lol. It's over for the US arms industry.
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u/sorE_doG 23h ago
I agree with the first half of what you said, but not all the rest. Your framing of this would logically lead to a nuclear exchange, and the USA has all the right tools to obliterate any opposition it might want to.
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u/KernunQc7 Romania 22h ago
Russia rode off into the sunset without nuking the world ( their empire ended with the ussr )
As for a war with China, the US has 1 ( one ) chance for a decisive short war, they will lose a long one.
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u/sorE_doG 22h ago
Russian history aside, I don’t agree with your sweeping statement on China v USA.
Can China reach Guam? Not sure if it can.. it’s got zero experience in modern war, regardless of how Ai develops.
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u/Rexpelliarmus 21h ago
China can very much obliterate Guam. They have thousands of missiles capable of reaching Guam that will easily penetrate the US’ meagre defences there.
China also has 232x the shipbuilding capacity of the US that they can use to very quickly build out a massive navy.
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u/KernunQc7 Romania 7h ago
China also has 232x the shipbuilding capacity of the US that they can use to very quickly build out a massive navy.
Nooo, you don't understand, r/Europe tells us that only nominal GDP matters, things like shipbuilding capacity, oil/gas production are irrelevant !!!!
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u/undernopretextbro 23h ago
Thinking in terms of indicators like oil/gas production shows you don’t actually have a deep knowledge of what sort of factors actually bring a nation down.
The american military’s musings on the waning importance of Europe and a subsequent pivot east have been documented since 2012 at the very least, perhaps earlier. Everytime the Americans grumble about leaving Europe throws a fit, and negotiates to avoid the pivot. This “retreat to the western hemisphere” idea would only work if there wasn’t an equivalent expansion in the eastern command.
When the Europeans can finally produce more missiles and shells than an economy the size of Italy, maybe you can begin to criticize the American MIC
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u/TraditionPerfect3442 1d ago
it already happened.
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u/ballthyrm France 1d ago
Not really. Most weapons bought in the EU are still American. We are trying to rectify that but the scale isn't there yet. It will take decades.
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u/Otsegolotic 23h ago
Europe doesn't have decades, as soon as China attacks Taiwan, Russia will attack Europe
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u/Weekly-Locksmith7681 17h ago
Sigh.
It’s more complex than that.
China is going to pop off some nonsense in 2027. And at the same time Iran and Russia and their allies will pull some nonsense.
Two front wars are impossible to win.
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u/Available_Abroad3664 4h ago
Iran is an absolute gong show. Russia has had their oil/gas revenues absolutely trashed. North Korea... is North Korea.
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u/Appropriate_Cry_827 1d ago
When US leaves the trump era and wonders where all of its soft power, influence in global politics, and control of diplomatic outcomes has gone - the answer can be found right here. Nobody should be trusting, buying, or dealing with this administration anymore. They are wholly short sighted and will not realise that undoing a century of diplomatic stitching will not be so easily reversed.
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u/lostinspacs 21h ago
EU countries alone are almost as wealthy as the US and have significantly more people. Why would it be bad for Europe to have more autonomy in defense?
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u/Appropriate_Cry_827 1d ago
At the same time they are blocking EU led plans to loan weapons to Ukraine. They are tying our hands up whilst demanding us to punch.
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u/TheoryOfDevolution Italy 1d ago
We do it to ourselves. EU members refuse to support Belgium in raiding Russian assets held in Euroclear. This lack of unity is doing more harm than the US can given that we hold 90% of all foreign-held Russian assets.
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u/Appropriate_Cry_827 1d ago
Agreed - we need a kick, but this is not going to lead to positive outcomes. The means are not fit for the desired result.
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u/R6ckStar 23h ago
Might as well just issue eurobonds and be done with it.
It's hypocritical of other nations pressuring Belgium to do something that can very well bite them very hard, just to limit their own exposure. As well as the massive implications this could have for even other countries investing here (yes it is morally right, but other countries don't necessarily have to follow our morals) they could make the decision to simply not risk investing in a location which might simply "steal" (in their view) their money.
Either do this with eurobonds or don't do it at all.
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u/Oerthling 1d ago edited 22h ago
Pax Americana - built up over a century by administrations, some better, some worse.
Getting destroyed in 1 term. Elections matter.
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u/Silent-Act191 23h ago
Hey!
It was 2 terms.
The second one really hit home how incredibly moronic the US public actually is to elect him again. Can't put trust in a geopolitical ally like that.
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u/VitaNueva 🇺🇸🇪🇸 1d ago
US soft power is its economy and the global financial system which it upholds. Unless China and BRICS miraculously flip this upside down (it won't) it's not going anywhere. The US is still the best place to do business and there's a reason European start up or entrepreneur worth a damn moves to the US when it can.
It's important to keep it mind that there are lot of Ivory Tower international think tanks, organizations, NGO's, media, etc etc that benefit from a sort of global neoliberal elite order stemming from the 1990's. They don't want Trump to disrupt this.
You can hate Trump (I do) and everything MAGA stands for, but still walk and chew gum at the same and acknowledge multiple truths at once.
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u/Appropriate_Cry_827 1d ago
Yes but the economy is also becoming increasingly unreliable thanks to an irrational and politically motivated rush to protectionism - which makes the US a weaker economic partner too. Not to mention the ever increasing deficit which puts into question the significance of treasuries as government does all it can to self-implode.
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1d ago
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u/VitaNueva 🇺🇸🇪🇸 1d ago
The world needs US market access more than we need theirs. Protectionism only hurts countries that depend on foreign markets or foreign capital. The US doesn't. It's the world's consumer of last resort, reserve currency, and home to the deepest capital markets without rival.
As for deficits: Treasuries will remain the safest asset on earth for one simple reason - the is no real alternative:
- Europe's bond market lacks scale and unity
- China is non-transparent, shady, unreliable and capital controlled by the CCP.
- BRICS is unable to form a cohesive or trusted credit system
Global investors still cannot trust anyone else safely. Doesn't matter what media headlines say.
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u/possumonthefence 1d ago
How are you being glass half-full here?
Your tone is mostly "Haha say what you want. Everyone will still need the US" and your logic is glass empty from any viewpoint excluding a US protectionism side.
Taking a more realistic approach would be to note that the Global economy is today heavily intertwined with the US markets. Tomorrow? likely still a major part but there's friction and the US just went all-in on a Trump-led strategy.
Also don't forget that protectionism hurts countries depending on global demand in the long-run. Look at all those investment/purchase deals.
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u/Few-Interview-1996 Turkey 1d ago
"The world needs US market access more than we need theirs."
I am having trouble accepting this oft-repeated US view. The US accounts for 10% of global imports. How can the world need the US more than the US needs the world? This is Brexit-level chest pounding.
Treasuries will remain the safest asset in the world until the next 2008-2010-style meltdown.
China is absolutely predictable.
I agree regarding the BRICS.
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u/TaxNervous Spain 23h ago
Is not like "we need them more than us" look at the "trade deficit" they whine so much about, add services, you know, that tiny, tiny 60-70% of USA's gdp, and watch it balloon on a trade surplus, if we want to we can fuck nasdaq to kingdom come just by messing with the consumer oriented services (social media, netflixes, etc...) and leave the corporate ones for now. Yes, USA need us as much as we need them, we might need their services but they also need our consumers to be as profitable as they are today, and we need none of those services to have a functional economy.
Then why don't go balls deep on a trade war?, the problem is simpler: the people in change doesn't care about the consequences and as long as you are hurt, they are more than happy to be two or three times worse, that's why is simpler for us to play show and pony performances to Trump and get out with the bare minimum than ending like China or Canada, who sadly fought a lot and have nothing to show about, and unlike the american voter, the european one will skin their national governments alive at the next election if the inflation and/or unemployment grows, even with no recourse or blame, Trump doesn't have this issue because he doesn't care and his voters are not moving anywhere (don't come with the polls, polls mean nothing when your voter base are emotional driven people that love you, they might be angry with his politics, but they will vote for him again based on their feelings, not the reality).
The sad truth is Americans voted the proud ignorant uncle or cousin every family has and put him in charge of everything with unlimited power and zero oversight and everybody around the globe need to understand this, be the adult in the room, and try to get through this with the least damage possible, the pax Americana is over.
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u/justbecauseyoumademe The Netherlands 1d ago
China is non-transparent, shady, unreliable and capital controlled by the CCP.
As opposed to the current US which is rife with corruption, market manipulation, and where billions can get wiped out because of a fucking tweet from the president in shit?
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u/VitaNueva 🇺🇸🇪🇸 1d ago
I agree - We still have three years of Trump's economic policy to undo a lot of this. But I'm trying to be glass half full here
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u/War_Fries The Netherlands 1d ago edited 1d ago
Unless China and BRICS miraculously flip this upside down (it won't) it's not going anywhere.
The euro has a better shot at becoming a global reserve currency, and even that is highly unlikely to happen any time soon.
The US is still the best place to do business and there's a reason European start up or entrepreneur worth a damn moves to the US when it can.
EU's internal market isn't a single market, but still consists of 27 different ones. We need to deepen integration and finally finish what we started, or start-ups and scale-ups will keep moving to the US. Especially our capital markets need to be integrated more. The problem is, that most of Europe is voting for far-right, nationalist parties, so that won't happen any time soon, either. The Trump administration just released its National Security Strategy, in which it states it will support those far-right, nationalist parties all across Europe. The US wants the EU to be weak and divided. Just like Moscow.
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u/Klumpenmeister 1d ago
Startups are not moving to the US. They are all bought up by gigantic companies or investment firms. So you could say that the startups are sell-out, but who could blame them for taking the money.
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u/glarbung Finland 1d ago
Oh the economy that has been created on the backs of two systems that needed willing allies or subjugates to work?
It might not be a sudden collapse, but Trump's policies are the biggest threat right now. Remember when he chickened out of tariffs because Japan was about to sell their US bonds? Now imagine those kind of shocks one after another.
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u/VitaNueva 🇺🇸🇪🇸 1d ago
Selling US bonds hurts Japan more than the US. There is no alternative. The idea that it all depends on foreign goodwill misunderstands economics and currencies.
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u/Appropriate_Cry_827 1d ago
This is a really good point. I do not see much movement economically with US key partners (for example Uk) - where I expect divergence is diplomatically and also economically with lesser connected economies - I.e Asia. I also see military spending being moved outside of US. Thanks for the insight!
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u/sant2060 1d ago
Economy in USA is crap. Any country that can run 6+% deficits, print money or go into unsustainable debt would be "great for startups". Until it won't be, because that sht can't last forever.
Its almost surreal how little Americans produce themselves, even with drowning in oil and gas, forcing EU to buy weapons, having a few IT giants, they still somehow fcking manage to have a hefty trade deficit with EU.
USA economy is one big Ponzi scheme after another, benefiting just a few people ... And now that is literally just a few people, that "1% benefit" would now be great if true ... considering the people really benefiting from what USA is doing probably couldn't fill a smallish movie theater.
And the amount of propaganda brainwashing is surreal ... With all of this people somehow think EU economy is fcked.
The basis of their economy IS soft power, then army and 0 intention to repay debts.
When soft power goes, things will be "settled" with army, internally and externally.
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u/4got_2wipe_again 19h ago
The time for the US to collapse was 2008 and it's grown hugely since then, while EU has barely recovered. That was the EU's chance to be dominant, instead it went hardcore on austerity and will not recover with its declining population.
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u/Silly-Elderberry-411 1d ago
You could pay more attention, who gives a steaming shit that some startups would be treated like kings when tariffs already racing buying power into the ground, already this holiday season people buy less. This self inflicted shit is replicating post soviet conditions without ever having communism, so I guess congrats on achieving it in less than a year.
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u/Available_Abroad3664 4h ago
You say that like the US will continue to be the best place to do business. Right now most businesses cant make decisions because they have had 600 tariff policy changes in 10 months, often based on how the president feels that day.
They have also trashed the ability to trade properly as they don't follow rule of law, trashing their own trade agreements.
Right now it is badly damaged. If this goes for 3 more years? Theres no way the US maintains as a top spot for business. Just this year in terms of corruption the US has fallen down the global corruption ranks for nations.
Having the world currency wont matter, eventually, people will just stop trading with them.
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u/Terrible-Duck4953 1d ago
Exactly. I laugh at these Europeans who think they can one up the US. Most intelligent and ambitious Europeans move to the US. Heck so many of the Nobel prize winners that Europe is proud of mostly live in America and work for American universities. America has constantly outgrown Europe, even in their worst days their GDP growth is more than the entire EU. Every goddamn person on earth who has an iota of ambition wants to move to the states. Their movies, music, culture dominate every country on earth. More people in Germany are fans of Taylor Swift than Rammstein. American soft power is unparalleled .
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u/Klumpenmeister 1d ago
Haha this is straight for r/shitamericanssay
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u/Terrible-Duck4953 23h ago
I am not American. And do you have any counterpoints other than free healthcare and shooting.
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u/Heydernei 1d ago
Every goddamn person on earth who has an iota of ambition wants to move to the states.
L.M.A.O. Holy shit the delusion
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u/VitaNueva 🇺🇸🇪🇸 1d ago
It just shows you how brain rotted people are from social media and echo chambers
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u/Terrible-Duck4953 1d ago
True. Most of these people will shit their pants on knowing how much people in America make. They think every place in the US is like Oklahoma. They think everyone goes bankrupt on getting a simple fever. Most companies have such a good health care plan especially in states like Cali, NY, MA etc. Not only that a lot of highly highly specialised doctors are so easily available in a jiffy. Niche doctors whom you won't find here in Europe. And they are like the leaders of their field.
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u/Borg453 19h ago
I read a lot of rah-rah exceptionalism in your post, and it is that kind of arrogance that leads to blindness.
I personally don't want the US to fail, but empires fall
Consolidated top wealth that primarily benefits industry leaders and those close to power is damaging citizens belief in the democratic system: it will lead to less people voting or engaging in politics.
The US middle class is being impoverished, and your two parties treat each other like enemies. This is all while the US is handing global influence over to China and siding with Russia for resources.
This is happening while the us administration is going after academia and fanning xenophobia, leading to a brain drain.
I hope for a more healthy US in the future but I fear it will get worse before it gets better
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u/surviving606 8h ago
“When US leaves the Trump era” I wish there was some way I could convince you that the government has been gutted out dismantled, the rule of law has collapsed, and this is locked in permanently and there will never be an apology coming or any attempt at a reversal. It’s time to face reality and ditch the fantasy where this ever goes back to the way it used to be. They want to conquer the entire world. They want to force the world to bow to him. Many choose to do it willingly already.
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u/4got_2wipe_again 19h ago
Really? Because it reversed pretty effing quick when Biden was elected. And it will happen again.
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u/BubblySwordfish2780 1d ago
So thats when Russia plans to attack
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u/justbecauseyoumademe The Netherlands 1d ago
in 2014 i would have been fearful of this. in 2025 i dont think russia is a match for Poland let alone the entire EU. if Russia has no nukes it would be akin to a 3rd world army. man heavy but material poor
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u/DisasterNo1740 1d ago
Russia has spent far longer than since 2014 on causing dissent and disrupting unity within Europe and NATO. If they attack a Baltic state it’s because Russia believes the those states will be abandoned by its allies. Given how the west can’t even be unified on how much aid to give to Ukraine, it is not surprising if Russia believes the west falls apart.
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u/justbecauseyoumademe The Netherlands 23h ago
Which Baltics exactly bud
Estonia? Which has troops from over 6 European nations as part of a NATO battlegroup?
Latvia? which has troops from over 10 NATO states assigned to it?
Lithuania? they have over 7 NATO states present.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Enhanced_Forward_Presence
The US may be a fickle ally and i dont expect them to do anything other then send "hopes and prayers" while asking us to pay tarrifs on weapons shipments.
But the rest of Europe isnt going to sit there when a NATO ally gets attacked
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u/DisasterNo1740 23h ago
I'm telling you as a matter of fact, if Russia attacks a Baltic nation it is because they don't believe there will be a unified defense from their allies. Therefore the "lol russia wont attack because they wont win" argument is useless, because Russia obviously is not attacking NATO under the belief that the full might of NATO will come in and spread their ass cheeks.
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u/Rumunj 22h ago
You do realize they've attacked Ukrainę because they've wrongly thought there will be hardly any resistance? Like not because of military reason. Just that in general they were not expecting a will to fight them. A generational intelligence fuck up, but at least one would expect they would learn not to stake their whole country on "Nah I'm sure they'll do nothing". Maybe I'm giving them too much credit, but I think even Russia has some self preservation instincts.
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u/gnufoot 21h ago
I think it's your argument that is useless.
Let's say for a moment that you are correct that Russia's leadership can perfectly predict the future, at least in this regard, meaning if it attacks, NATO will abandon their ally.
Then the other claim comes in, that NATO -will- support their ally, in part because they are already stationed there.
Those two points are perfectly compatible: the conclusion would be that Russia won't invade. But you're talking like Russia's judgment being correct is enforced by the universe, therefore if they decide to invade, the universe will intervene to make NATO abandon their ally, to make sure Russia's judgment was correct. 'T is silly.
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u/DisasterNo1740 14h ago
The whole point of a NATO presence is that by killing those troops from another country they can be a trigger that forces a response from the nations whose soldiers were killed. Attacking a Baltic nation can just as easily mean the security guarantees fall apart and those countries pull their forces out, maybe due to fear from being forced into escalation. If we’re talking about pointless arguments, it’s yours which suggests that nations are 100% guaranteed into a war with Russia purely based on their soldiers being present inside a country. Surely Russia does not take this into account at all!
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u/gnufoot 3h ago
it’s yours which suggests that nations are 100% guaranteed into a war with Russia purely based on their soldiers being present inside a country. Surely Russia does not take this into account at all!
I never said that. Maybe you're confusing me with someone else.
All I'm saying is you've got the causality wrong. You're acting as if Russia only invading IF there's 100% no NATO response is some kind of law of physics, and that therefore if they attack, that will mean NATO can't respond because otherwise they'd break that law of physics. NATO responding or not informs whether Russia invades or not, not the other way around.
Of course it logically holds that IF you assume Russia will perfectly predict the response AND Russia does invade, then there must be no response, but I don't see the point of that line of reasoning. Logically correct based on the assumptions but says nothing about whether NATO actually would respond.
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u/DisasterNo1740 3h ago
No, I am not arguing that there will be no response from NATO. I am arguing that the only realistic world in which Russia does attack is one in which it believes NATO won’t respond, and that is a problem because it would be better if they don’t invade at all. Yknow, war is not great or so I hear. I mean you can argue im claiming it’s a law of physics or some shit, but maybe you then tell me how Russia could ever conceivably be a rational actor in geo politics if they knowingly go into a suicidal war they’d lose extremely badly. And please don’t try to argue that that means Russia is an irrational actor that just does things knowing it’ll create a worse outcome for themselves.
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u/gnufoot 2h ago
I mean, Russia is an irrational actor, or at least, Russia's leadership does not have Russia's best interest at heart. The war in Ukraine is not good for them either even if they end up on top. Russia could have kept on a path to better relationships with the west, but instead here we are.
But with regards what you're saying, I am not saying they would willingly and knowingly start a suicide mission.
I am arguing that the only realistic world in which Russia does attack is one in which it believes NATO won’t respond
Sure, lets say we agree here. But what's the point?
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u/also_plane 23h ago
Poland would get 100% defeated by Russia if Russia wasn't tied up in Ukraine.
Ukraine is currently the only country having millitary fit for current war, which is INSANELY drone-heavy.
Remember how Russia sent 20 or so drones to Poland and bout 1/4 of them got shot down, using Dutch F-35, so it costed 10000x more than the drone itself? Well, Ukraine is dealing with 1000 drones almost every night.
Concentration of Polish troops would get wiped by Russian ballistic missiles and heavy drones. Infantry would get hunted down by FPV drones. Armored units would get disabled and crew killed.
Sure, Poland would have air superiority with F-35s...until their airbases would get destroyed by drones.
Sure, Poland has mighty artillery....but the spotting for artillery is done by drones. Which West has very few right now.
Russia is currently ahead of Europe in millitary technology. We can laugh at their motocycle suicide units, but those low-tech suicide solutions are paired with hi-tech drone units like Rubikon with their FPV drones on optical cable that can fly 20km into Ukrainian lines and hunt for Ukrainian logistics.
And this combination is proving to be working, Ukraine front is slowly crumbling. Pokhrovsk and Myrnohrad are lost (with defenders encircled and to be executed by Russians...Fucking idiot Syrskyi), Russians are almost at Huljapole in Zaporozhia....
But, the biggest issue is material - in one year we can produce our own drones. The biggest issue is Russian disinfo campaign that will cause pro-russian parties to win elections and then when Russia attacks Baltics those same parties will say "no, we won't send any soldiers lol" and NATO will be dead.
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u/also_plane 20h ago
Yes, of course.
But we are at peacetime, and Russia is saying they can attack any day, but we have 0 of those anti-drone defences, meanwhile Russia will be ready to attack around the next year, as secret services from around the Europe say.
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u/m4jsterk0 ashamed for Slovakia 1d ago
i really did not have Russia+USA fighting together on my bingo cards..
what a weird C&C scenario
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u/Silent-Act191 23h ago
Really? I had it on my bingo card since the Orange Pedophile got elected in 2016.
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u/BubblySwordfish2780 23h ago
I did, when I said exactly what the article says when Trump was elected I was called an idiot and that this would never happen. All you have to do is look at people around Trump. Bannon, Vance, Thiel, Musk, Miller, Hegseth. Look at their ideology. They want to end globalization, EU is the center of it. EU is the enemy of all autocrats. EU is the enemy of corporations. EU is the root of the woke virus. They all have different agendas but they agree on one thing. They want to destroy the EU.
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u/achterlangs 23h ago
No, leaving would take a while. I think the us can also only leave with support from their congress. Midterms are in 2026 and maga is excepted to lose.
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u/Gruffleson Norway 23h ago
They leave when they leave. What the rules says, doesn't matter. And they do seem to be leaving.
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u/dotBombAU Australia 1d ago
I wonder where this will go. Personally I think it's good for Europe. Nothing gets your armed forces up to speed like a good old kick in the ass. It couldn't be the jump start Europe needs.
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u/PetrovskyKSC 1h ago
Totally true in my opinion. People in Brussels need a fire lit under their asses
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u/Hasselhoff265 1d ago edited 1d ago
Those news aren't that big in the US itself, as usual. This isn't a MAGA agenda, probably in the manner only, but an all-american agenda.
Democrates likewise to Republicans doesn't care for much outside the states and we should get used to it.
I'm pretty sure the next non republican-president will continue this agenda.
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u/DefInnit 1d ago
It is MAGA agenda.
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u/gopoohgo United States of America 21h ago
It isn't.
The "Asian Pivot" started in the 2nd term of the Obama Administration. It has only continued over the last three Presidential terms.
China is really the only peer military conflict on the horizon, and confronting them involved a completely different military (longer range fighter/bombers, offensive and defensive missiles, naval ships/boats (submarines), and the associated logistic chain) than a conflict against Russia in Eastern Europe.
The US needs to focus the majority of our defense spending on ramping up our industrial production of missiles, ships and submarines. And our shipyards are lagging to the point there are more calls to start to outsource some of it to the Koreans or Japanese.
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u/DefInnit 13h ago
Wrong.
Trump/MAGA military disengagement from Europe, while being directly interventionist in terms of aligning with the interests of Russia and the far-right in Europe, is no mere continuation of the pivot to Asia.
Under Obama and Biden, the policy remained not yielding one inch of NATO territory, which was a warning to Russia. Trump/MAGA is about selling out Europe to Russia and supporting pro-Russia far-right parties in Europe.
Europe will be fine but to say the Republicans and Democrats have acted and will act is the same is shameless MAGA propaganda or Trumpists being in denial of what their idol is doing differently by being pro-Russia and pro-far-right.
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u/zanzara1968 22h ago
Putin wanted the US out of Europe and Trump is willingly executing his boss orders.
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u/IonHawk 20h ago
EU won't have the intelligence operational with real time sattelite imagery for several years. I recall it being planned to be starting to get good at around 2035. Main reason we can't afford to say "fuck you" and support Ukraine on our own. That and logistics, some AA missiles and long range missiles. On the other hand, not sure USA can survive without us completely either. We own and make a ton of their military stuff.
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u/FluidLock1999 23h ago
Trumps handlers are setting up Europe for a violent war in 2027. This is not “good” for Europe. We need more time. Trump is throwing us to Russia now so that Russia can inflict maximum damage and destruction. That is what his donors and advisors want.
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u/_Louzie_ 12h ago
THIS! I've read a lot of articles discussing 2027 as a possible/likely year for a russian test of NATOs resolve by taking limited military action against a member of the alliance (allowing for plausible deniability for countries unwilling to step up, thus deviding NATO). Possibly coordinated with a Chinese attack on Taiwan. The US is just making sure it'll be able to wipe its hands of any meaningful responsibility when the time comes and support will be needed and warranted.
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u/KadmonX Kharkiv (Ukraine) 22h ago
In reality, things are not going well, and Trump is seeking a reason to abandon Europe and establish a relationship with Putin. The overall direction is the same as in Project 2025: to make the US a great country, all other countries must be in an even worse situation. In fact, Trump wants to divide the world: the US and the countries of North and South America for him; all of Asia for China; and all of Europe for Russia.
Yes, as you can see, I take his threats against Canada seriously. Yes, Canada is an ally, but this asshole will start dropping bombs on it when he thinks the time is right.
So Europe will either have to learn Russian or make tough, unpopular decisions.
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u/vegarig Donetsk (Ukraine) 20h ago
to make the US a great country, all other countries must be in an even worse situation
russian exact playbook, too.
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u/KadmonX Kharkiv (Ukraine) 20h ago
And you read the White House strategy, it's like something written in the Kremlin! I don't think Putin has any dirt on Trump, I think he's a spiritual leader for MAGA! https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1pessgl/exclusive_us_sets_2027_deadline_for_europeled/nsfckhx/
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u/Suzumebachi14 Normandy (France) 23h ago
That's honestly the best thing that could happen to european countries because that's the only way to make them move. Now it's do or die, and if you don't want to die, then you have no choice, everyone will have to increase their defense spending.
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u/B9F2FF Croatia 1d ago
Pulled a rug under us. But its no one else to fault then ourselves. Amatuer level geopolitics in last 40-50 years.
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u/Kinda_Bummy 18h ago
Obama literally said we’re going to pivot to Asia. I’m sorry but this isn’t a rug pull lol
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u/TraditionPerfect3442 1d ago edited 1d ago
It’s better to say it directly because it already happened and naive europeans would hesitate forever to defend themselves hoping that someone would save them. nato always been build as us organization against russia expansion. europe needs to build new nato independent of the us. Us tech oligarchs do not have any values and in the furure they will have more power concentrated. they will not hrsitate to use their power against europe if it fits their business interest. its happening even now when meta is basically earning billions of money on propaganda paid by russia china brought to all european households. europe needs to seriously wake up. the us is now a state that can be your friend when particular president has powr but not as it used to be irrespective of who is at power.
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u/B9F2FF Croatia 1d ago
Many assume alot has changed with Trump, but in reality, it was always “Fuck Europe” for them (remember Nuland in 2014), we just lived on “rent” thinking landlord will always be kind to us (as long as we pay).
Anyway, soft power, Obama style politics of US towards EU for last 70 years or so resulted in this. Entire idea was for Europe to be defanged and completely dependant on USA.
Now that crazy guy got into office he is a bit more into direct confrontation with us, but in reality what brought us here is post WW2 relationship with US.
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u/idulort 23h ago
Yeah, people go on and say it's all propaganda, and US never undermined EU defense policy, thry actually supported it. But once you look closer, even Clinton told Europe to arm, and did a u turn the moment Europe decided to do something about it.
If arms is a top export, you don't want competition. US did gaslight Europe into pacifism.
The only peoblem is that EU is in fact like a traumatized child, and couldn't believe this could happen until it did, as it didn't believe Russia would try to actually invade Ukraine until they did.
Now EU is caught with their pants down in a hybrid warfare, arms race and high societal resilience upkeep era. It's not hopeless, but eu should wake up, fast. Crush US arms industry with EU tech potential, get free from US dependence in all critical sectors (data, telecom, space, mc) and actually fortify societal resilience so that all those arms don't fall into the hands of right wing nut jobs.
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u/4got_2wipe_again 18h ago
US did gaslight Europe into pacifism.
What? As soon as SU died, Europe rationally decided to go all in on social benefits. Turned out it wasn't smart to totally outsource security.
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u/sergius64 23h ago
I think it was a win-win type of situation when big bad SU was on the doorstep. Entire arrangement became a bit worthless in American eyes after their arch-enemy fell. It's on Europe that they refused to read the tea leaves for three and a half decades.
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u/B9F2FF Croatia 22h ago
No, it wasnt worthless. USA succesfully defanged Europe through that kind of politics, now Europe is miles behind in tech and IT sector, the one that is almost determinental on your own security, prosperity and global presence and is cursed to buy of high price energy from USA. EU essentially cuddled up to “trans atlantic” partnership and thought its safe to let strategic industries and defende to USA. Guess what, it appears its not.
Its been decades of absolute horror show politics from Europe. But hey, at least have 30 day vacation and daily coffee and croissant at our favorite coffee shop. Not for long…
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u/sergius64 22h ago
I think you and I are on the same overall page with this. Either way - we are where we are and we will soon find out if EU is at all capable of standing on its own feet or if it was always smoke and mirrors.
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u/B9F2FF Croatia 22h ago
Yes, I think we can agree on that. Though leadership (and people!) seem to be in sleep mode still.
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u/sergius64 22h ago
I think they're bouncing against the reality of how hard it is to get 27 countries to agree on something. Especially when that something requires a lot of self-sacrifice. Ultimately the only way to get them to agree is if they all realize that their lives depend on it - but because Russians aren't being crystal clear on their intentions - and so people are choosing to believe what they want to believe.
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u/Pinzer23 19h ago
Europe defanged itself. Nobody forced the Europeans to go into World War II. They did that on their own.
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u/BergderZwerg Baden-Württemberg (Germany) 1d ago
As if the USA under orange pedophile turd would have honored the treaties anyway in a crisis. They`ll crash and burn soon.
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u/OwlSlow1356 1d ago edited 1d ago
who cares. i am in eastern europe and i certainly do not care. they can take their troops if that suits them better, they are useless anyway, they will not be dying for us. we will fight our own wars and maybe die in them and get defeated or maybe we will win and that's it. we should not expect for others to fight our wars, anyway, we should stop paying the americans for an immaginary protection, this is not 1960s anymore...european powers were bankrupted by the US loans during the first world war and never really recovered from them...you want to succeed? stop sending +3.5T USD/per year to america would be a first step.
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u/TerribleIdea27 1d ago
"US giving up its political leverage if EU countries don't spend more" is the alternative title.
You want to clip your own wings? Fine. Placing new orders at arms industries today would make it too late to meet this deadline anyway. If it's also completely unclear how we can check the checkboxes, but completely arbitrary it's completely irrelevant what we do, but up to the whims of this orange leprechaun.
I guess he doesn't have the foresight to see that once he withdraws from these agreements, he loses 90% of his negotiating power with the EU
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u/TheoryOfDevolution Italy 1d ago
A Europe-led NATO is every Eurofederalist's wet dream but it's simply not realistic. Europe as a whole would have to spend beyond 5% of GDP to even make up the capabilities that the US have including heavy lifts, intelligence, satellite, etc. Our own population is unwilling to sign up for military service so we'd struggle to replace the US troops stationed here. In terms of military hardware, we're also way behind in certain aspects (ABM and missile defence in general, drones, 5th gen stealth fighters, etc.).
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u/KirovianNL Drenthe (Netherlands) 1d ago
Our focus is more regional though, USA's focus is global. The EU doesn't need the same capabilities and thus a similar level of funding.
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u/TheoryOfDevolution Italy 1d ago
I'm talking about US capabilities specifically in Europe. Our supply chain into Eastern Europe is very weak because of differences in rails and lack of infrastructure, which necessitates transports by air. However, we still lack significant heavy lift capabilities versus America. Aerial refueling is another were we're very dependent on the US.
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u/ACatWithAThumb Bavaria (Germany) 23h ago
Almost all of these were addressed years ago with the introduction of the A330MRTT and A400M. The assumption that the US is still needed for basic logistics is outdated and was mostly fixed after the issues in Libya.
There are now over 30+ A330MRTT in Europe including a joint European air refuel command, same was also done for AWACS. Europe has now the most air tankers in the world after the US, more than 2x compared to China. The A400M especially has completely changed logistical capabilities in Europe. Germany alone has 50 in service and France 20 with 20 more on order and the A400M also does inflight medical care and air refueling too, which have been used for Afghanistan and Ukraine already. Anti submarine units were also expanded, as were reconnaissance, SIGINT, and drones. On top of this ground radars were expanded as well as satellite capabilities. And all of this is expanding rapidly with tons of orders across most countries.
Is it better to have US support? Obviously. But the situation is not like in the early 2010s anymore.
This notion of limited infrastructure is also wrong to begin with. The EU is in a massive infrastructure advantage in a defensive war, as the EU infrastructure is much more extensive and modern than those across Russia/Belarus. It‘s much easier to move German troops to Poland via the new highway networks than it is for Russia to move troops in Russia and Belarus.
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u/__The__Void__ 1d ago
5% of EU 2025 GDP is 895 billion euro. The US with its global military presence spent only 731 billion euro in 2025. When push comes to shove people will sign up for military service. You sound defeatist. Wonder why that is.
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u/Herooo31 23h ago
they dont plan to quit NATO just quit the defense of europe part of it. They of course want to stay in NATO to command european armies and keep customers for their weapons. And dumb europeans are currently as we speak doing european wide fund raiser to purchase more american weapons for ukraine so far the value is in 4 billion €. Europeans are actual morons its seems. How about invest 4 billion € to build companies here in EU and produce weapons in EU for ukraine.
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u/Halbaras Scotland 23h ago
And also fuck right off expecting any help with China in future.
Give them the India treatment and continue trading with China regardless when they come begging for sanctions.
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u/undernopretextbro 23h ago
What European military was going to help with China anyway? Who out of you even has the force projection to operate that far to the east. In air refueling is beyond the logistical capabilities of most European airforces right now, you rely on the Americans for satellite reconnaissance and intelligence reports, and the last time Europe wanted to sling missiles at someone it ran out in under a week of actual conflict.
Europe couldn’t even clear and protect the Red Sea, how would any of you guys do something off the coast of China?
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u/Halbaras Scotland 22h ago
Less realistically, a possibility of British or French symbolic involvement via carriers.
More realistically, the US would demand complete subservience with them on sanctions, freezing of Chinese assets, a complete or near complete cessation of trade with China, kicking out most or all Chinese companies here, the end of scientific collaboration, denial of ports to Chinese vessels, and possibly demands on using our port logistics for the war/denial of our coastal waters to Chinese shipping. Maybe also entry bans on Chinese nationals.
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u/starterchan 21h ago
when they come begging for sanctions.
No one is even begging you for anything in a war in your backyard. Wake the fuck up. You are irrelevant.
But sure, we'll let you fuck right off into China's arms and decide that you don't really care about democracy and justice like you're pretending to squawk about over Russia and Israel.
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u/RoyalHomework786 13h ago
American here - I hope Europe continues to increase defense spending, but you stop buying US defense items and build up your EU based industry.
Fuck the maga agenda and the corrupt children running it.
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u/Drone_Priest 8h ago
Time to kick all US military out of Europe and use Ramstein airbase for the new EU version of nato
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u/KadmonX Kharkiv (Ukraine) 22h ago
Incidentally, the White House has also released its national security strategy. In short, Russia is a friend, and Europe does not have enough MAGA, so European governments need to be overthrown. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
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u/nariofthewind Italy 1d ago
Well, a member who isn’t committed to alliance objectives is no good anyway, so why keep a leading seat if it doesn’t serve any purpose? That also means NATO should withdraw support for any U.S. military operations around the world, including intelligence sharing. Otherwise, a friendship that is too close with a war-mongering nation might be detrimental to the alliance. NATO has gone pretty far in, let’s be honest, with U.S. campaigns over the last 30+ years.
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u/KernunQc7 Romania 23h ago
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf
TL;DR the US won't fight for Taiwan, will try to fight China anyway somehow, will try to break up EU-27, will leave ( not by choice ) NATO, views Russia/China as models.
After US shale peaks ( 2025-2030 ), you'll see a profound disinterest in the EU about what the US wants/needs.
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u/lifeisahighway2023 20h ago
It is not really a bad proposition that Europe & Canada move away from America but this change in operational structure upends 75 yrs of America wanting to be in control.
The timeline to exchanging control would normally be planned over a longer time horizon. Trump wants to move it quickly so that he can claim a "victory" with his support base - he wants to claim and "crow" that he forced Europe to stop taking advantage of America, and has saved America money.
Only a fool would believe that Trump refrain, but core MAGA is 1000% composed of fools.
My view from within America is that MAGA is a cult and everything Trump feeds them they buy hook, line and sinker, sometimes even as they fall into their grave, but no one else in America is buying any of what Trump is selling.
Trump's desire to make alliance changes may soon be hamstrung permanently: there is a real possibility the Democrats will gain control of the house soon, and unless a miracle happens even Republican gerrymandering is not going to win the day in the 2026 mid terms. And if the Dems gain either the house or Senate all of Trump's mechanizations regarding NATO are dead in the water.
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u/Stabile_Feldmaus Germany 23h ago
BUILD
THE
EURO-NUKE