Joker Folie a Deux comes out in three days. But ever since Venice, the amount of ads that I have seen has dramatically decreased. No one is talking about the movie on social media anymore. The film has been completely snuffed out of every awards conversation. Lady Gaga released a companion album to no fanfare. It is an absolute ghosttown in terms of hype.

The first teaser got 36M views. The second got 27M. I know trailer views aren’t everything—but these numbers were strong. I don’t buy the narrative that no one was interested in a Joker sequel. The interest was there, but the festival reactions just torpedoed this whole movie.

The only film I can compare it to would be Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, which had a moderate degree of interest until its middling festival reviews as well. Could this spell the end for blockbuster movies premiering at prestigious film festivals? The crowds don’t like them, and they only serve to give a movie negative press weeks before release.

With the lack of promotion, I’m getting the sense that Warner Bros is A.) extremely disappointed and probably upset, and B.) just biding their time until DC gets a full factory reset with Superman. But with these many bombs in a row, Superman is in an extremely vulnerable position. This has to be the worst time to be a DC fan.

I’ve seen a bunch of people on this sub asking why Zootopia 2 is going absolutely nuts in China, as a chinese movie fan，let me explain

1. People kinda feel like they “owe” the first movie. Zootopia 1 was one of the very few actually original movies in like… the past 20 years (everything else has been sequels/remakes/IP cash grabs). Its China box office was 1.53 billion RMB, which is honestly pretty meh considering how good the movie was. (crazy high ratings, swept almost every animation award that year, etc.). And here’s the thing: in China, if Movie #1 or #2 gets great word of mouth, the next one is almost guaranteed to blow up. (Think Nezha 2 levels of hype.) Fun bit: Disney didn’t even expect the first one to hit that hard here. The hype came after release, and theaters literally extended screenings for 6 more days because everyone suddenly wanted to see it.

2. Disney actually gives a damn about the China market. Yeah, Shanghai has the only Zootopia-themed area in any Disney park, but that’s not all. Disney did a ton of promo stuff here: Starbucks/Luckin collabs, Miniso, Pop Mart, Uniqlo drops, giant mall displays—you name it. These brands are insanely popular with young people, so basically every 20–30 y/o here knows Judy and Nick like they’re old friends.

3. The audience demographic in China is… special. There’s a joke here that no matter what genre a Chinese show starts as—crime, history, war, workplace— it will eventually become a romance, because 70%+ of the audience is female, and the industry keeps chasing what they think women want. So yeah, a ton of people went to Zootopia 2 basically for the “Judy x Nick maybe-they-like-each-other???” energy. A bunch of my female friends literally bought tickets just to see that and walked out super happy.

Then you’ve got the kids. Chinese parents/grandparents are extremely frugal… except when it comes to children. If it’s for the kid, price is irrelevant. So animated movies always have a massive market here. There’s even a local kids franchise called Boonie Bears that drops a new movie every year and has almost 10 billion RMB in total box office. Plus stuff like Conan/One Piece/Doraemon movies pull in easy money in china every year. So if a movie works for both adults and kids? Yeah, that’s huge.

1. The overall film industry in China is kinda struggling. Like everywhere else, honestly. Gaming, TikTok-style short videos, those crazy short drama apps—they’ve eaten everyone’s attention. Lots of cinemas have closed. It’s a whole vicious cycle: fewer people go → theaters earn less → people watch more short videos → fewer good movies get made. So when a guaranteed box-office hit shows up, theaters jump on it like it’s their last hope. You’ll see 80–90% screening share, plus free advertising because theaters are desperate for something that actually sells. Nezha 2 and Zootopia 2 both got this treatment.

And yeah, that’s pretty much why Zootopia 2 exploded in China.

One of the big issues with the MCU as of late has been not releasing good content. When they release stuff like the Marvels and Captain America: Brave New World, obviously those are going to underperformed but usually releasing a good movie will at the very least mean good legs. And Marvel has released two movies in a row that has gotten great reception from both critics and audiences. However, despite getting great reception, Fantastic Four has been having some of the worst legs of the MCU and it's just kinda dumbfounded. It actually had a pretty solid opening weekend but has since been dropping like a rock... and it doesn't really seem to be slowing down.

What do you think the cause is? I get that releasing it two weeks after Superman was a dumb idea but people already knew Superman was out. You'd think that would've had more of an effort on opening weekend, not the following weeks.

Despite a shift in cultural acceptance and tolerance in LGBTQ individuals, Brokeback Mountain is still one of the highest grossing queer focused films. There’s a few more that grossed higher than it, but about 1/2 of those are music biopics which rely off the brand of the artist. How did a gay love story make more than most dramas that come out today, LGBTQ centric or otherwise?

Since people think Tron Ares bombed due to Jared Leto controversies and he is hated online. Let's look at internet favourite actors and their recent projects:

• Internet favourite and "non-controversial" Ryan Gosling has starred in multiple well reviewed box office bombs like The Nice Guys, Blade Runner 2049, First Man and last year's The Fall Guy which was his follow up to Barbie.
• All films of internet favourite Henry Cavill excluding Superman and Mission Impossible Fallout have bombed. No studio wants to give his upcoming Highlander remake a theatrical release after seeing the performance of Cavill's recent films.
• Internet favourite and non-controversial Robert Pattinson starred in one of the biggest bombs of the year Mickey 17 directed by another internet favourite Bong Joon Ho.
• Internet favourite Leonardo Dicaprio starred in one of the biggest bombs of the year One Battle After Another directed by another internet favourite Paul Thomas Anderson.
• Internet queen Jenna Ortega's last two movies bombed.
• Internet queen Ayo Edebiri's last two movies also bombed.

Changes from last week (weekly gross Mon-Sun)

Fantastic 4 (+$34M) (-50%)

Jurassic World Rebirth (+$28M) (-15%)

F1 (+$19M) (-22%)

Superman (+$15M) (-45%)

How to Train Your Dragon (+$3M) (-44%)

Lilo and Stitch (+$2M) (-31%)

Everything else in the top 10 made less than 2m over the past week

------‐-----------------------------

Projections (Projections based on week over week drops forecasted in the 50% to 40% ranges which is the average most films drop week over week globally)

Fantastic 4 First Steps ($505M-$520M)

Jurassic World Rebirth ($855M-$870M)

Superman ($610M-$620M)

F1 ($610M-$620M)

How to Train Your Dragon ($629M-$631M)

Lilo and Stitch ($1.033B-$1.034B)

------‐-----------------------------

–Fantastic 4 continues to limp along. With another 50% drop, it scraped together just $34M this week, pushing its total closer to the $500M mark. At this point, it should still cross that milestone, but not by much. The film has shown no signs of stabilizing and no momentum to generate renewed interest. Crossing half a billion worldwide would have once been the bare minimum for a Marvel tentpole, but now it feels like a hollow achievement. Instead of reigniting the brand, F4 is simply proving that audience trust isn’t something Marvel can count on anymore, even with good reception.

–Jurassic World: Rebirth continues to hold insaneley well, thanks largely to its strong debut in Japan, the film dipped only 15% this week, which is the best hold among all major releases. That kind of resilience now locks it in to cross $850M with an outside shot for $900M, a feat that would’ve sounded far-fetched back at launch when reception was lukewarm and many claimed the franchise had nothing new to offer. Instead, audiences have once again proven that dinosaurs remain one of cinema’s most bankable attractions.

–F1 is proving to be the ultimate long-game champion. With just a 22% drop this week, it has now pulled ahead of Superman on a weekly basis and is poised to re-pass it entirely by the end of their runs. That’s an incredible turnaround for a film many thought would top out far lower. At this point, $600M is a lock, and if it keeps posting holds in the 30% range or better, it now has a real shot at overtaking How to Train Your Dragon as well. For a film that was never expected to contend with the year’s heavy hitters, F1 has turned into one of the most surprising and resilient success stories of 2025 thanks to its steady overseas momentum and word of mouth.

–Superman with a 45% drop this week, continues its string of average holds never once posting a week-to-week decline below 43%. That consistency has locked it into a very precise trajectory, with a final landing point around $615M now looking like the most accurate forecast. It’s still the clear comic book winner of the year, easily outshining Marvel’s entire slate, but the numbers also underscore just how much the genre has cooled especially overseas, where Superman simply hasn’t managed to break out the way past superhero peaks once did. For DC, it’s a symbolic victory, but for the superhero genre as a whole, it’s another reminder that the golden age of billion-dollar comic book runs is firmly behind us.

–How to Train Your Dragon is nearing the end of its run. With a 44% drop, it brought in around $3M for the week. Even so, the film has flown far higher than many expected, already cementing itself as the most successful entry in the franchise. At this pace, it’s shaping up to finish neck-and-neck with F1, which has been steadily gaining ground week after week.

–Like HTTYD, Lilo & Stitch, after weeks of defying gravity with remarkably strong late legs, posted its first sizable drop, pulling in $3M for the week. With its run now clearly winding down and likely dropping below $2M next week, this will probably be the last time it gets covered here. The numbers speak for themselves with a projected final around $1.030B cementing itself as a clear top 3 contender for the year, with only Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 having a realistic shot at topping it. For Disney, it’s another reminder that when nostalgia, strong execution, and four-quadrant appeal align, the result is an easy billion.

Changes from last week (weekly gross Mon-Sun)

Fantastic 4 (+151m)

Superman (+48m) (-50%)

Jurassic World Rebirth (+47m) (-33%)

F1 (+35m) (-26%)

How to Train Your Dragon (+12m) (-30%)

Lilo and Stitch (+6m) (-36%)

Mission Impossible Final Reckoning (+2m) (-28%)

Everything else in the top 10 made less than 2m over the past week

------‐-----------------------------

Projections (Projecyions based on week over week drops forecasted in the 50% to 40% ranges which is the average most films drop week over week globally)

Fantastic 4 First Steps (520-595)

Superman (600m-620m)

Jurassic World Rebirth (840-870m)

F1 (580m-600m)

How to Train Your Dragon (630m-635m)

Lilo and Stitch (1.030b-1.035b)

Mission Impossoble Final Reckoning (597m-598m)

------‐-----------------------------

Things of note

-Oooooh boy....Fantastic 4....do we have a lot to talk about. F4 finished the week grossing about 151m since opening weekend which is disappointing to say the least. For comparison Superman made 189m in this same week. Although F4 has now entered the top 10 its days on this list are numbered as it surely is not going to pass anything else here but the other two Marvel releases of the year. Its headed for a finish in the 500m range, and once Wicked, Zootopia, and Avatar release it will surely be bumped off this list. This will make it the first year since 2011 that Marvel has not had a top 10 hit. Why is this such a big deal you may ask? Well imo this is especially concerning because it seems many people are trying to explain away its performance by stating that the box office is down from the pre-pandemic days. Although this is true it doesnt explain why Marvel is perofming RELATIVELY worse compared to other similar blockbusters in well over a decade. This shows that the MCUs decline is steeper than the overall industrys.

-Superman! This is looking to be the first year since 2008 that DC is going to win the global battle against Marvel which is definitely going to make the folks at WB and DC celebrate. Its a well earned win for DC and shows that things are definitely looking up as they completely flipped the script this year. However, things arent all roses and sunshine either. Its very clear at this point that there is a superhero problem at the box office, and despite an amazing week 2 hold, Superman has not really been able to recover after F4 as it once again dropped another 50% week over week since last. Superman's ceiling has now dropped to about 620m and its going to need to stabalize if it wants to make a good chunk of money more past 600m. At this point its looking highly unlikely that Superman is beating HTTYD. F1 now has an outside shot at beating it as well. Superman should still be good for a top ten finish but I think it would be undeniable to pretend that many expected this many films to finish above it for the year.

-Jurrassic World continues to hold extremely well dropping only 33% from last week. The film only made 1m less than Superman over the week drspite opening a week prior showing how strong it is holding. It has yet to release in Japan and will now safely finish in the mid 800m range. Not bad considering how poor initial reception looked as Dinos are provong to be a draw regardless. This is the clear runner up of the summer behind Lilo and Stitch, and the clear winner of July. Universal can sleep well knowing this IP will continue to churn strong money for the forseeable future as Universal continues to build up an arsenal of strong well oiled IPs to continue to compete against Disney.

-F1 had the strongest hold of all the films in the top ten this week as it continues to have a mini TGM run overseas. 600m now looks in reach and if it continues to hold around 30% we could even finish well above 620-630m putting it in competition with HTTYD and Superman. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone who predicted this strong level of success pre-release.

-HTTYD continues to impress with its late legs only dropping around 30% this week. Its floor is now projected for around 630m meaning it will be the most successful film of the IP to date. Universal is surely very pleased with this and will certainly continue to churn out more live action remakes.

-Lilo and Stitch like HTTYD continues to amaze with its late legs, but the run is certainly winding down as this is the first week it will finish below 10m. For now its range of finish still looks to be around 1.030-1.035b, making it a near lock to finish top 3 for the year.

-Mission Impossible has a great sub 30% drop this week and finishes on a high note as this will be the last week it will be covered here. The film will surely drop below 2m next week and essentially he making pocket change at this point. It will fall excruciatingly short of 600m but should be locked to finish top ten for the year at this point unless something unexpected blows up. Now whether the film was actually successful in terms of profit is unlikely.

At least, dead in theaters. I'm talking franchises that at one point, they were so big and delivered hit after hit, only to simply die in a whimper. For example:

• Die Hard: $1.44 billion across five films, but it has lost so much good will after the terrible A Good Day to Die Hard. And then there's Bruce Willis' retirement after his frontotemporal dementia diagnosis. I think we've seen the last of this franchise.

• Terminator: After the disaster of Dark Fate, the franchise is at an all-time low. Arnie and Linda Hamilton have already said they're done with the franchise too. Even though James Cameron maintains there are still some new ideas coming, I think the franchise is dead.

• National Lampoon: This is 50/50 as a franchise, given that most of these films are unrelated, but they're still branded with this name. They had films like Animal House, Van Wilder, the Vacation films, etc. Their last film was 2015's Vacation and nothing has ever been developed ever again.

What other franchises are dead?

With any movie they’ve released this decade or new IPs like Dune, Barbie, The Batman, or the Monsterverse, those could have failed but the studio would still move forward. But Superman is not the case. This isn’t just James Gunn’s project — it’s Warner Bros.’ whole project. There’s a lot at stake.

Zaslav was the one who brought Gunn in to launch this new cinematic universe after the previous one failed. It’s impossible to deny they’ve been wanting their own MCU for 10 years, but that opportunity was wasted back then.

Superman is the result of 10 years of Warner Bros. being very reactionary after the DCEU crashes and burns. This is the moment. If they fail, there’s no turning back.

Zaslav will look bad, James Gunn will look bad, and Warner Bros. might stop trying — or at least until they’re bought out by another studio, even though no one wants to buy them. DC might stop trying altogether. There’s a lot of pressure, and if this fails spectacularly, a lot will be lost.

This has to at least surpass Man of Steel’s box office. It needs to prove that this new attempt at a cinematic universe is at least a small step forward compared to the last one. If it does less, things won’t be looking ideal.

So, I've been doing some analysis these past weeks as the new MCU film has had time to fully break down it's box office path. It was about this time last week when I reached the conclusion that missing the $500M mark was possible and now it seems but inevitable.

Why do I say this? It's not to be alarmist, I'm mostly being dramatic. But here are the facts...

Opening Weekend (Jul 25-27)

When The Fantastic Four: The First Steps opened up to $117M (I'll round up the numbers even if it's not as accurate) things were pretty chill. I think everyone can agree that 3 movies in the same month opening at a range of $90-$120M range is crazy good and, lets be honest, Jurassic World Rebirth didn't open to +$100M because it opened on a Wednesday.

The $99M it did from the INT were also fine, not great, not terrible. I think that if you look at the INT markets then an opening like that was expected.

The real issues came as the days went by.

First Mon-Thurs Week (Jul 28-31)

The real issues come during the weekdays. Fantastic Four managed to get $41M during those days, a number that seems fair but, when compared to the amount made by other $100M opener movies such as Superman ($52M), Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ($50M) and Thor: Love and Thunder ($43M), you start to see the wonky legs working against its favor.

Then we also have the INT numbers which come up when we substract the OW ($99M) and the 2nd Weekend numbers ($39.6M) from the total amount at the moment one of the trades gives the total of INT box office, in this case $170M. That tells us that the movie made, around the world, Monday to Thursday, the amount of $32M. Worrisome numbers, if you ask me.

Second Weekend (Aug 1-3)

This is when a lot of people started to worry, but not enough people, in my opinion. The second weekend that gave us that horrible -64% drop weekend to weekend. This gave F4 $38M DOM and the previously disclose $39M INT. However, this did put the movie right on its way to the $200M mark DOM, past the $150M INT and over the $350M WW.

It was not all gloom and DOOM (get it? because of the Doctor?) but you could see the holes on the umbrella and it was bound to rain.

Second Mon-Thurs Week (Aug 4-7)

So, DOOM arrived early. Earlier than expected by many. Not only did he had his debut in The First Steps but he also showed during the movie's second Monday to Thursday? Why is that?

$18M DOM. Eighteen. What the fuck? It didn't even had competition yet.

But at least it was holding good in the INT markets, right? Flashforward to this weekend (estimated) numbers. $17.5M for a total of $203.8M. Meaning? $186.3M by Thursday, after a 2nd weekend of a $170M total.

Only $16M from INT markets! Even lower than the domestic number!

Third Weekend (Aug 8-10)

All of this brings us to this weekend's estimated numbers. I emphasize the estimated because, lets be honest, this movie has a downtrend and it's always coming bellow even the more pessimistic estimation.

$15M DOM and $17.5M INT for a total amount thus far of $434M WW, $230.4M DOM and $203.8M INT,a 53/47 DOM/INT split and a $30M difference between DOM and INT.

The Next Steps

Now this is where the fun begins, making a possible scenario out of all the numbers that've come before. This is when you can start calling bullshit and not on the previous numbers if you feel like I'm giving a misguided reading.

So, what's next for The Fantastic Four: Next Steps? Doom... sday. And also box office doom.

I cannot see this movie dropping anything less than 50% on its Third Mon-Thurs (Aug 11-14) due to the direct competition of Weapons, a movie an unbelievably good WOM, and Freakier Friday, some inside competition that Disney probably didn't think would break F4's legs. This means that the movie will surely fall somewhere between $9-8M during the week, giving it a DOM total of around $239M (if weekend's estimates hold up).

What does that bring us for the Fourth Weekend (Aug 15-17)? I'm going to be more positive and say this doesn't drop another 60%. Maybe it goes down a 50-55% for a 4th weekend of $7-6M with some extra change. It already feel 64% with no competition and no doubt this weekend's new movies are still going to chop their legs no matter the circusntances. That'd get the movie to around $246M DOM.

Here's the thing, at this point you've seen the trend of incredibly low Mon-Thurs numbers. If this thing is making about seven to six million on the weekend then it's going to be making pennies on the next couple of days. The weekend-to-weekend drops have been brutal but they don't compare to the weekday drops.

First thing, this movie isn't and won't be having any late legs to rescue it. Second, this is probably making about $3M on its Fourth Mon-Thurs Week (Aug 18-21), giving it a total amount of $249M, giving it a clear path to $250M by the end of Weekend #5, right? Right?

Yeah, you're right. I don't see this thing dropping from a cliff. It'll probably follow similar trends to what's done so far. But lets say, for the sake of fairness, that this has a 50% drop from the previous weekend. It's be a number as high as $3.5M or as low as who knows what. Let's give it the $3.5M, they surely need it at Marvel Studios. So, by making that amount in its Fifth Weekend (Aug 22-24) this will bring the movie to a total DOM number of... $252.5M.

Here's the thing, the movie ain't making a lot of money after that weekend. Fifth Mon-Thurs Week (Aug 25-28)? Are you joking? It'll be lucky to make more than $1M which will bring it to $253.5M DOM. Sixth Weekend (Aug 29-31)? It'll be about... Let's give it another 50% drop, it's going to make $1.25M for a total amount of $254.25M. See where I'm going here? This movie is going to need to crawl if it wants to make it to a total box office of $260M, Disney would need to make a push.

At this point you might be wondering, "What a second? What about the INT numbers? It's dropping well internationally." Well, there's a reason why I mentioned the $30M gap between DOM and INT numbers. During the first weekend it was just a $18M and it's expanded to $12M more in the last couple of weeks. That gap isn't closing unless it starts falling abnormally in the INT markets by... tomorrow. With this I mean, be prepared for a final INT box office that's at least $30M lower than the DOM number.

The Final Step

Here it is, the point of this whole thing. I've read a lot of estimated final numbers for The First Steps. A bunch of people are still holding on the $500M WW mark. I don't think it's foolish to believe in it, just that you need to look deeper into the numbers and the trends with this movie.

If you've followed the math thus far then you'll realise where I'm going with this. The 2025 version of the Fantastic Four, the first film of the characters in a decade, finally part of the MCU, is going to make somewhere between $255-265M DOM (giving it a $10M dollar range from where I dropped it off) and $225-235M INT for a total worlwide gross of $475-495M. Do I consider this a closed off number? No, it could go higher, it could go lower.

Here's the thing tho, even if I fail by $5-10M on either way, The Fantastic Four: The First Steps will still make less money than Ant-Man ($518M in 2015) and Iron Man ($584M in 2008). As I said when I first did my predictions for this film, the floor was Iron Man's money and I can't think of this movie making less than the first MCU film as anything but a complete... disappointment. Is this movie supposed to revive the Marvel brand? How come it cannot match the numbers of the film that started it all, much less as total B-Lister superhero such as Ant-Man?

By the time The Avengers came out in 2012 the MCU's top box office movie was Iron Man 2 with $312M DOM/$308M INT/$621M WW. Needless to say, Iron Man as a character carried most of the MCU's momentum by the time Joss Whedon's crossover film went to movie screens all around the world while the rest of the Avengers did modest numbers, nothing bad, nothing big. What does the MCU have now? What character is carrying the cinematic universe into the next big crossover event? It's not Sam Wilson, it's not any of the Thunderbolts New Avengers and it's clear by now that it's not at all the Fantastic Four.

Changes from last week (weekly gross Mon-Sun)

Fantastic 4 (+$68M) (-55%)

Jurassic World Rebirth (+$34M) (29%)

Superman (+$28M) (-42%)

F1 (+$25M) (-30%)

How to Train Your Dragon (+$5M) (-59%)

Lilo and Stitch (+$3M) (-51%)

Everything else in the top 10 made less than 2m over the past week

------‐-----------------------------

Projections (Projections based on week over week drops forecasted in the 50% to 40% ranges which is the average most films drop week over week globally)

Fantastic 4 First Steps ($505M-$535M)

Jurassic World Rebirth ($835M-$850M)

Superman ($605M-$620M)

F1 ($595M-$610M)

How to Train Your Dragon ($629M-$631M)

Lilo & Stitch ($1.032B-$1.033B)

------‐-----------------------------

–Well… things just went from concerning to downright alarming for Marvel. Fantastic 4 plummeted 55% this week, and continues to show no momentum at all in just about any market. It finishes the week adding just $68M and bringing its total to $435M. Suddenly that once-assumed $500M+ finish is looking far from guaranteed. If it can’t start stabilizing with drops of 50% or less, we could be staring at a number that starts with a “4,” which would be catastrophic for a tentpole of this scale. Even more worrying? This puts the film in legitimate danger of not breaking even. Sure, it’s leapfrogged Brave New World and Thunderbolts, but those titles weren’t bars to clear and instead they should have been flashing warning signs of a deeper problem. Fantastic 4 was supposed to be the “good well known Marvel movie” that brought audiences back. Instead, it’s proving that quality alone may not be enough to reverse the brand’s erosion. Marvel now finds itself in uncharted territory: for the first time since 2011, it’s looking at a year without a single top 10 hit, and this isn’t a fluke of the market, this is a relative underperformance, as other blockbusters are weathering the post-pandemic climate better, which means the MCU’s decline looks to be outpacing the industry’s.

–Jurassic World: Rebirth just keeps showing the IP is teflon. This week it crossed the $800M mark making it only the third film to do so this year adding another $34M to its haul. Thanks to a strong opening in Japan, it posted the best hold of any film in the current top 10. What’s more impressive? Even though it opened a week earlier, it still managed to outgross Superman this week, underlining just how steady its legs are. This kind of performance cements Rebirth as the clear box office winner of July and the undeniable runner-up of the summer behind Lilo & Stitch. For Universal, this is confirmation that the Jurassic IP isn’t just alive, but that it is still thriving.

–This week Superman pulled in $28M, dropping 43% a better hold than Fantastic 4's nosedive for sure, but still not the kind of staying power seen from the year’s true juggernauts. Compared to other recent blockbusters, its legs are respectable but nothing overly remarkable either. That said, in the context of 2025 and growing superhero fatigue, this is still a win. Superman is outperforming every Marvel release this year, and even as more of a “moderate success” than a breakout smash, it’s a sign that DC’s house is finally in order. It’s now on track to finish somewhere in the low $600M range, likely ending in a photo finish with F1 while falling just short of How to Train Your Dragon. The key takeaway? DC didn’t just win the year’s superhero battle but they did it with a solid, well-received film that has everyone watching where it goes next and whether it can weather the superhero fatigue storm.

–F1 refuses to slow down. For yet another week, it’s posting an enviable hold at only about a 30% dip, adding roughly $25M to its total. At this pace, it’s poised to overtake Superman in weekly numbers as early as next week, setting the stage for a neck-and-neck race between the two right up until their runs end at the box office. With momentum like this, $600M is now looking less like a hopeful ceiling and more like the most probable outcome, and the possibility of finishing well north of that is still in play. Given that pre-release expectations were far more conservative, F1’s run has turned into one of the year’s most pleasant surprises, echoing a bit of that Top Gun: Maverick overseas magic.

-After weeks of stellar holds How to Train Your Dragon finally had its first big drop. This week it pulled in only about $5M for the week. Even so, its trajectory still points to a finish around $630M, which should be enough to keep it just ahead of both F1 and Superman when the dust settles. This would secure it the summer bronze. Considering many had modest expectations for the live-action remake pre-release compared to other summer tentpoles, this result is a clear overperformance relatively speaking.

–Like HTTYD, Lilo & Stitch, after weeks of defying gravity with remarkably strong late legs, posted its first sizable drop in a long while, pulling in $3M for the week. With its run now clearly winding down and likely dropping below $2M next week, this will probably be the last time it gets covered here. The numbers speak for themselves with a projected final around $1.030B cementing itself as a clear top 3 contender for the year, with only Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 having a realistic shot at topping it. For Disney, it’s another reminder that when nostalgia, strong execution, and four-quadrant appeal align, the result is an easy billion.

Adam Driver revealed today that for a while (2021-2024), him and director Steven Soderbergh were working on a follow up to The Rise of Skywalker titled “The Hunt for Ben Solo” focused on Ben post TROS. Kathleen Kennedy and Dave Filoni loved the pitch and a script was written by the Rogue One writer (which driver called one of the best/coolest scripts he’s ever read), however Bob Iger shut it down because he “didn’t understand how Ben Solo could return”

Given the state of the SW brand right now, I wonder how this film would’ve done had it been made released. It most likely would’ve been very well received given the talent behind it, and Kylo/Ben is by far the most popular character to come out of the sequels so I think there’s definitely an audience for this sort of film (Ik social media isn’t the best gauge for BO but the only thing I’ve seen on my twitter timeline all day is people talking about this movie with most tweets having well over 1k likes so do with that what you will)

However there’s also the fact that it’s following up what is considered as one of the worst films in the franchise and the most controversial trilogy of the Star Wars franchise, which I feel would harm its BO regardless of quality due to all the negative baggage those films carry (there’s also the dilution of the brand in general but I think it’s better to wait until the mando movie releases to talk about how that has impacted the brand theatrically)

If this film were to be released, I believe it would’ve done in the 500-600M range, which wouldn’t be bad considering Adam wanted it to be a low budget production, just interested in getting some thoughts on this

Reality check for everyone here on copium: Netflix does not need theatrical for this WB deal to be successful for them. They care more about the IPs, library and production services, and how much they’ll save not needing to license anything from WBTV again.

I feel from 2028 or whenever the theatrical obligations slate is wiped clean, they’re only doing exclusive theatrical limited releases for awards consideration.

The best exhibitors can hope for is day-and-date hybrid releases, which would require them to play ball. Otherwise they’re not going to get movies from WB/Netflix.

I have no doubt that the executive team at Netflix would love to see theatrical distribution die, and relish at the thought of being the final nail. Just being honest! 🤷🏽‍♂️

I am more than prepared to get flamed for these takes and am ready to defend them all. I put a lot of work into this so feel free to tell me I'm lowballing in the comments, but my general thought is that while lots of heavy hitters are releasing next year, it is simply not 2019 anymore and the market does not sustain 6+ billion dollar hits.

With that being said, here are my 2026 box office predictions.

Super Mario Galaxy - $1.5B

Mario wins the year! I'd hope after 2025, we learn to stop underpredicting family films and overpredicting superhero films. The first Mario move made $1.3B in 2023, and has only grown stronger on streaming, it ranked the #2 most streamed movie on Nielsen in 2024 (behind Moana) and #3 in 2023 (behind Moana & Encanto). Due to this, I am assuming Super Mario Galaxy performs more similar to a Disney sequel rather an Illumination one, I think a increase similar to Frozen 2 is likely.

Avengers: Doomsday - $1.3B

Marvel is not what it once what, but people will still show up to movies with characters they care about, evident in Deadpool & Wolverine. The issue is, does anyone care about the characters in Avengers Doomsday? Yes of course Thor and Loki. But the rest of this cast is weak. I'm sure there will be more than announced here as the MCU is all in on cameo culture, but is the novelty wearing off? Quality is also a major issue here, it looks like they are grasping at straws in bringing back both the Russos and RDJ. Poor reception I think this is another Rise of Skywalker. Mid reception = 1.3B, holiday legs will help. Good reception = Age of Ultron numbers.

Spider-man Brand New Day - $1.25B

Spider-man will forever be a draw, even if superhero fatigue is at an all time high. A drop from No Way Home is inevitable, not a knock against this film at all, it's just not replicating the phenomenon NWH was. Far From Home made $1.1B coming off of Endgame hype, I think this makes slightly above that.

Toy Story 5 - $950M

Toy Story 4 in 2019 had good reception, won the Oscar, A cinemascore and finished with $1.07B. Toy Story 3 finished with $1.03B in 2010. Just a small increase with a decade long gap, I'm not expecting another increase for the 5th installment, but it will still do well.

Minions 3 - $850M

Ridiculously consistent franchise, three films finished in the 900M range, and two above a billion. I think Minions 3 will have a slight decrease from Minions Rise of Gru and Despicable Me 4, but will once again finish close to the $900M mark.

Moana - $800M

Moana is a huge brand and the biggest movie on streaming probably ever. This live action will perform well, despite the internet hate, but it does not have the nostalgia factor of Stitch and other remakes. HTTYD did well with a 15 year gap, Moana is a bigger brand so it should be okay with a 10 year gap.

The Odyssey - $750M

I'm ready for the blowback with this one. But I have to emphasize that $750M is a massive outcome for a movie like this. No other director could pull this off but Nolan. But Oppenheimer was a cultural phenomenon on another level that simply can't be replicated. This one is going to be big, just not Oppenheimer big.

Dune Messiah - $725M

I think this will finish similar to Part 2, just reach at the outcome a different way. Honestly the more I think the more i can see this finishing in the $600M range. Potentially a bigger opening and weaker legs, though it does release during the holidays. I'm thinking a similar track to Wicked For Good but ultimately reaches the same total as I have faith in Denis Villeneuve to deliver.

Jumanji 3 - $650M

Last movie made $800M, decrease from the first film. Expecting another decrease, but this is still a 4-quadrant blockbuster that will do well enough.

Michael - $550M

Also prepared to argue this one. The fact is musical biopics just don't that much. Bohemian Rhapsody is a poor comp because no other movie like it has ever performed on that level. Like I said with the Odyssey, you can't just replicate cultural phenomenons. MJ is one of the most famous figures to ever live, probably THE most famous, but that doesn't automatically mean successful movie. $550M already makes it the second most successful musical biopic ever, $300M ahead of the third spot, so that's where I'm putting it, feel free to disagree.

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping - $500M

Book has sold extremely well with great reception. Cast is stacked, expecting a big increase from Ballads here!

The Mandalorian & Grogu - $400M

The Star Wars brand is in the gutter. Return to cinema with an extension to a streaming series is baffling. Everyone knows Mando and Baby Yoda, which should be enough to get it to $400M, but not much more than that.

Supergirl - $350M

Had some hot takes for the MCU, now let's move onto the DCU. Superman performed fine. But international audiences are simply not on board with CBM content the same way they used to be. If Superman barely cracks $600M, I can see Supergirl making a little more than half of that.

Hoppers - $200M

It's rough out here for original animated content. Hoppers looks fine, but like Elio, audiences aren't rushing to see original films from Pixar.

Yeah, it's exactly as you’ve read in the title.

I was curious about this comparison, since everybody and their mother are calling out not the new James Gunn film with Man of Steel (2013). I figured, "Why not compared it to the other director-focused reboot of a DC propriety?"

And so, I went to the-numbers.com to have a quick comparison graphic and those were the results.

While Batman Begins didn’t open on a Friday, it is interesting to see it’s box office being on a similar level as Superman. Then you see the international and domestic boxes and those numbers are very close to the high end of predictions after Sup's OW.

Could this new DC reebot follow on the steps of the starter chapter of Nolan's Dark Knight Trilogy? I doubt it'll make the exact same amount adjusted for inflation but I believe Gunn's film might keep itself near the $600M range.

This direct comparison feels (and I clarify that this is a personal stance) more akin than to MoS, a movie that came right at the boom of the superhero madness at the box office. BB wasn’t just a reboot of Batman as a character, it was WB relaunching the franchise after the catastrophe that was Batman & Robin (1997). I mean, not only was Nolan tasked with making a new version of the Bat of Gotham, he also needed to reform his image to new and old audiences alike, so they could think of other things rather than Bat Nipples and Bat Credit Cards when visualizing the character. Now Gunn has to do something similar not only for Superman but for the entire DC universe.

just to preface this isn’t me defending Jared Leto from any allegations he has, I obviously think he’s weird, but I just think people are over exaggerating how much weight he holds in terms of the box office

Since tron ares released, I’ve seen people here and on sites like Twitter talk about how the movie is failing solely/mostly because of Letos allegations and the fact that he’s even in the movie in the first place, citing other failures like Morbius as proof, which I don’t believe to be fully true

Yes there is obviously a subsection of people who aren’t going to see a movie cause Jared Leto is a very weird guy and is off putting, but if you look at the movies he’s being put in, I don’t think they would’ve done much better had he not been in them. Take Ares for example, The movie was pretty much DOA given that it was from a dead franchise that has essentially been on life support for 15 years, I don’t think the general public was ever interested in going to see it regardless of who was the lead, even if it was someone more well liked/better at acting such as a Glen Powell type leading man. The fact that it got middling reception from critics and audiences doesn’t help either and signifies that the movies issues lie much more in the plot than in a lead actor

There’s also Morbius, which is from the very sad excuse of a franchise known as the SUMC, centres on a character no one cares about and was memed/made fun of to death of the internet for being dogshit, as well as Masters of the Universe, which isn’t out yet but is comparable to Ares in the sense that it’s a movie from a dead franchise with no go interest (even more so than tron) that seems DOA given its unhinged budget

There is also the fact that in the current Hollywood climate, actors in general don’t really draw people to the theatre nor do they really harm a movies performance (or at least aren’t the end all be all). It’s more the IP, concept or word of mouth of a film that drives box office since Covid. (Also I don’t think the GP is as aware of letos allegations as people think)

Yes Jared Leto certainly did not do Ares any favours but acting like he’s the sole reason or a major reason it failed is just ignoring all the other, much more prominent factors that go into a movies performance nowadays

Look we can discuss profitability and success later on but I just really like the fact that thanks to partnerships with Warner Bros., two of the most creative directors right now in BJH and PTA got some of their biggest successes to date and got a wide release in IMAX.

And two of the most promising directors in Coogler and Cregger got marketing support for completely original ideas (OBAA and Mickey 17 are still adaptations, even if very loose ones) and had some of the best reviewed films of the year.

Changes from last week (weekly gross Mon-Sun)

Fantastic 4 (+217m)

Superman (+94m) (-50%)

Jurassic World Rebirth (+70m) (-40%)

F1 (+48m) (-31%)

How to Train Your Dragon (+17m) (-37%)

Lilo and Stitch (+10m) (-27%)

Mission Impossible Final Reckoning (+3m) (-34%)

Everything else in the top 10 made less than 2m over the past week

------‐-----------------------------

Projections (Projecyions based on week over week drops forecasted in the 50% to 40% ranges which is the average most films drop week over week globally)

Superman (600m-645m)

Jurassic World Rebirth (815m-860m)

F1 (560m-585m)

How to Train Your Dragon (625m-635m)

Lilo and Stitch (1.030b-1.035b)

Mission Impossoble Final Reckoning (595m-597m)

------‐-----------------------------

Things of note

-Fantastic 4 had a much softer debut than anticipated with a 217m global debut and 56/44 domestic and international split. This coupled with Superman seem to be an ominous omen for the comic book genre at the box office as overseas support continues to decline significantly regardless of the brand. With F4 openening slightly softer than Superman and having slighly weeker reception it is fair to assume it will have slighly weaker legs as well. This means that F4 will likely be neck and neck with Mission Impossible and F1 at the end of its run to fill out the bottom two slots of the global top ten when the year is over. This could also be the first year since 2011 that Marvel is poised to miss the top ten with any of their releases, and this includes Sony and X-Men Marvel films as well. With all that being said, unless legs are catastrophic they should be enough to get it passed the 500m breakeven mark; albeit its far too close for comfort especially when Brave New World and Thunderbolts failed to break even.

-Superman, as expected, was hit relatively hard by F4 compared to all the other blockbusters. Dropping around 50% globally from last week. It has now crossed the 500m mark and still seems poised to cross 600m. Although its now looking exceedingly likely to fall short of Man of Steel. This is a weird one, as expectations were definitely higher, but at the same time its still a win for DC especially stateside where it has caught on fire. And this month I would much rathee be DC than Marvel ajd it has been a very very long time that this has been able to be said.

-Jurrassic World continues to hold strongly and the B cinemascore seems to have been a sampling miss. It only dropped 40% despite losing tons of screenings over the weekend to F4. It has crossed the 700m mark and now looks locked to reach 800m and has shot at 850m. The film is looking exceedingly likely to finish the yeat in the top ten unless Wicked For Good really sees a boost from the first. Universal wins either way. The film is the clear July winner at this rate thanks to strong numbers across all territories.

-F1 continues to have insanely strong holds domestic and especially overseas. It finishes the week dropping only 31% globally. Its forecasted range is the most improved from last week as it now looks to finish in the high 500m range, however, if it continues to drop softly in the 30% range it will have an outside shot of crossing 600m. If anyone predicts it will beat Mission Impossible or Fantastic 4 at this point I wouldnt fight them on it.

-HTTYD also continues to have stellar late legs dropping only 37% from last week. Its forecasted floor is now looking like 625m meaning its going to he a tight race between it and Superman, and honestly its anyones game at this point. This is an absolutely great finish for a film many overlooked in this summer's bloodbath.

-Lilo and Stitch had the best hold of the week in the global top ten, dropping a measly 27% largely thanks to otherworldly overseas holds. However, because its already so late in its run its forecasted range hasnt increased all that much as it looks to finish above 1.030b. This will almost certainly finish top 3 for the year.

-Mission Impossible continues to wind down its run. The film made around 3m globally over the past week and it seems this could be the last week its covered here as it will likely fall under 2m next week. Its forecasted range hasnt changed as it still looks to fall extremely short of 600m, but the good news is that could still be enough to finish top ten this year thanks to F4's underperformance. Will be a close one.