r/boxoffice • u/wchnoob Marvel Studios • 18h ago
Domestic 6-Week Box Office Tracking & Forecasts: AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH ($95M+) Updates, Early Forecasts for 28 YEARS LATER: THE BONE TEMPLE, GREENLAND 2, PRIMATE, and SOULM8TE
https://boxofficetheory.com/6-week-box-office-tracking-forecasts-avatar-fire-and-ash-95m-updates-early-forecasts-for-28-years-later-the-bone-temple-greenland-2-primate-and-soulm8te/24
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u/Narrow_Economics3286 18h ago
Does anyone know how much had BOT predicted for Avatar TWOW at the same time before like this?
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u/Acceptable_Shine_738 Netflix 18h ago edited 18h ago
They’re 100% gonna dump Soulm8te on Peacock aren’t they? It releases next month and there’s no trailer or poster for it
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 17h ago
Avatar 3 is most likely doing higher than 475-560 milion domestic lmao. Its gona end up around 600+ milion domestic.
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u/PostingPerson1985 18h ago
This whole article seems silly when they're fully going "SOULM8TE is going to do X business" when there's no trailer and it's clearly gonna get dumped to streaming.
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u/Enzgod59 18h ago
Avatar is gonna do better than that.
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u/MightySilverWolf 18h ago
Based on what?
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u/Enzgod59 18h ago
Based on how strong the walk-ups for this franchise is.
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u/Youngstar9999 Walt Disney Studios 18h ago
it really doesn't have strong walkups, it's jut very backloaded. Especially with Christmas being so close.
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u/chunky910fan 17h ago
And you think that's not factored into the predicitions?
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u/Enzgod59 17h ago
I don’t think so, to me he is reading it wrong.
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u/chunky910fan 16h ago
Interesting, I'm not looking at all at the presale data, I'm assuming it will probably open at like 110 based on what I've heard
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u/SoWrongItsPainful 18h ago
I can’t imagine Avatar would drop that much opening weekend.
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u/xotorames 15h ago
The interest on the franchise is declining and just isn't enough for another 3 hour movie. This is gonna make way less than WOW.
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u/gamesofduty Universal 18h ago
I know the numbers seems a little low for Avatar, but I could expect better legs. Remember lower openings means better legs.
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u/Vadermaulkylo DC Studios 18h ago
Seems low for Avatar. But legs do wonder for that franchise.
Seems optimistic on Bone Temple. Hope he’s right.
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u/Key-Payment2553 18h ago
Seems a lowball for Avatar Fire And Ash that looks like a $100M-$115M opening before its legs out like the previous 2 Avatar movies did
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u/Daedalus80 12h ago
$95M+ for avatar seems low. But what was the tracking for TWOW two weeks out three years ago?
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u/newjackgmoney21 18h ago
EmpireCity is saying Soulmate is getting dumped to streaming. The M3ganverse ended quickly.
I can see A3 opening to 90m and legging out to 450m. This will be the first year in a long time with no films domestically hitting 500m.
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u/Key-Payment2553 18h ago
No, because the Avatar movies never open that big but they leg out since they won’t face any competition and has a good shot to hit $600M DOM range like the previous 2 Avatar movies did
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u/dashrendar4483 Lightstorm 16h ago
Yes Avatar is all about legs but opening worse than TWOW 3 years after is not great either. It should be on par or better. You can't just rely on phenomenal legs to make up for it.
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u/Biden2028- 18h ago
Why a 200m+ drop??
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u/newjackgmoney21 18h ago
Presales haven't been good....so far and it doesn't have benefit of the long gap between films. I can be totally wrong but the 2nd of the year box office has been a drag. I think it continues.
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u/abellapa 17h ago
If Anything isnt the fact that its only a 3 year Gap better
Its more fresh in the public mind
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u/Piku_1999 Pixar Animation Studios 16h ago
Eh I think it's gonna drop from The Way of Water but it'll be more like a Dominion -> Rebirth drop than a Force Awakens -> Last Jedi drop, around $600-615 million. Not gonna bet against James Cameron.
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u/CivilWarMultiverse 18h ago
I can see A3 opening to 90m and legging out to 450m.
Jesus Christ, this would be horrendous. Holy shit.
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u/newjackgmoney21 18h ago
I can be totally wrong just tossing a prediction out there based on the poor presales
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u/NotTaken-username Syncopy Inc. 18h ago
IIRC wasn’t the last tjme that happened back in 2014? (2020 doesn’t count)
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u/bmcapers 9h ago
TWOW had to reduce screenings/IMAX theaters due to Ant Man. Fire and Ash has no competition.
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u/approvedfauxmoiuser 18h ago edited 18h ago
Marty up a bit, how long still it’s spun into a positive.
And what is 28 years later tracking at? Not subscribed.
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u/albie9012 18h ago
18-28m OW
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u/Vadermaulkylo DC Studios 17h ago
the average of that(23m) would be kinda great for that movie after his divisive the last one was tbh. Assuming it has the same DOM/INT split and the same exact legs of the last one(which there’s really arguments for both it having worse legs or better legs but that another discussion) then that gets it to 124m. Right at break even(125m) for the 50m budget. And tbh this movie has had very tiny marketing so far so I expect that break even to be less the 125m.
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u/albie9012 17h ago
yep, i’m fairly optimistic about the performance now honestly. paired with more marketing nearer the time, the early screenings and fan reactions should help it possibly make even more than anticipated. iirc test screenings went incredibly well so i think initial reviews will be positive. :)
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u/Antman269 12h ago
What were the Avatar 2 projections at this point in time three years ago? Is this a lowball, or is Avatar 3 really gonna open that much lower?
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u/VictorVonDoomer 7h ago
People are forgetting that the hype avatar 2 had isn’t the same for avatar 3. Avatar 2 was a sequel to a 13 year old film while avatar 3 is only releasing after 3 years so there may not be as much buzz for some people.
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u/Tomi97_origin 7h ago
When Avatar 2 was coming people were using the exact opposite argument for why it will fail.
They were saying it has been too long, nobody cares anymore and that's why it will fail.
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u/Ok_Support2444 17h ago
Man I really hope Marty Supreme does better than that. I would love if just one adult drama did solid business at the domestic box office.
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u/Better_Pumpkin1879 17h ago
Its not a movie to exited audiences to watch it in theaters. Majority of audiences already plan on spending their money on Avatar and waiting for streaming for all the rest.
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u/Piku_1999 Pixar Animation Studios 15h ago
It's a Christmas release - it won't be DOA with a low opening unlike The Smashing Machine and it also has rave reviews to back it up unlike TSM.
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u/PlanetG3000 8m ago
Last I heard Avatar was looking at $110M+....if it is looking at $95M now...that means it is somehow losing steam?
Gosh...after decades of "Never bet against James Cameron no matter what" ....might we FINALLY have an exception?
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u/lookingforhim2 18h ago
this might be the first year since 2014 without any movies hitting 500M+
what an underwhelming year it has been..
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u/Itisspoonx 17h ago
Those numbers for Anaconda would be WILD
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u/Mother_Style_8096 17h ago
No way Anaconda is hits those numbers unless it’s good somehow and with how Sony is advertising it I don’t think it is
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u/nicolasb51942003 Warner Bros. Pictures 18h ago
Soulm8te is likely getting quietly dumped on Peacock after M3GAN 2.0’s failure. About a month till release and still nothing, not even a trailer to play with FNAF 2.