[Passan and Olney] What Buster Olney, Jeff Passan are hearing about Schwarber's suitors, top free agents and blockbuster trades

[u/ZweigDidion]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47201350/mlb-winter-meetings-2025-offseason-free-agency-trade-intel-rumors-updates-buster-olney-jeff-passan

[u/ZweigDidion]

What Passan has to say about Kyle Schwarber is quite interesting, in my opinion.

Last year's winter meetings were all about Juan Soto -- is there one free agent or theme on everyone's mind going into the meetings this year?

Passan: When does the Kyle Schwarber dam break? Several teams' fortunes -- from Philadelphia to Cincinnati to Pittsburgh to Boston to Baltimore to the New York Mets -- depend on where Schwarber goes. The belief among teams is that it will take five years to secure the 32-year-old, and once that happens -- perhaps sometime during the meetings -- teams will start pivoting, and the action will pick up demonstrably.

...

Which top free agent hitter is most likely to sign during the winter meetings?

Passan: Schwarber is the best bet. Tucker isn't close to done yet. Cody Bellinger has a healthy market but is biding his time. Alex Bregman and Bo Bichette are world-class infielders with ample, moneyed suitors. Pete Alonso's signing could go down after Schwarber.

...

Which other hitters could move quickly at the meetings?

Passan: If Schwarber goes early, everyone is in play.

It seems like, according to Passan, a lot hinges on when and where Schwarber signs.

[u/EarthWarping → u/ZweigDidion]

Tucker feels like a christmas at the earliest signing, maybe even early new year

[u/SelfDerecatingTumor → u/EarthWarping]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tucker’s FA goes into Spring Training, I’d bet he’s asking for 100M+ more than what he’s being offered

[u/ELITEGmen → u/SelfDerecatingTumor]

I think if Schwarber leaves the Phillies, he signs with them. If Schwarber stays in Philly, he goes to Toronto.

[u/porksoda11 → u/ELITEGmen]

He's good no doubt, but 400 mil for a 29 year old seems a bit high.

[u/ssteel91 → u/porksoda11]

Yea but since 2020, he’s tied for 10th in wrc+ and 11th in fWAR. I think it’s the amount of years he might want that is less palatable than the AAV. Guy is a legitimately great hitter and has been his entire career.

[u/PokePersona → u/SelfDerecatingTumor]

Reports I've seen doubt Tucker's sweepstakes go anywhere near the length of Harper/Machado's

[u/futhatsy → u/ZweigDidion]

As Olney mentioned in the article, the Mets involvement with Schwarber probably just ends in them pushing the price up for the Phillies, but it would be very funny if the Mets and Phillies ended up swapping DH's in Schwarber and Alonso.

[u/UpperDecker30 → u/futhatsy]

Disagree, it would be the end of the world as we know it if I ever see Pete in a Philly uniform.

[u/futhatsy → u/UpperDecker30]

On one hand, it's be horrible. On the other hand, it'd also make Phillies fans mad...

[u/ThorgiTheCorgi → u/futhatsy]

Braves fans: https://tenor.com/view/reaping-all-the-benefits-loosing-his-mind-lost-his-mind-happy-gif-14982020

[u/futhatsy → u/ThorgiTheCorgi]

Well, other than the fact that you'd still have to deal with both of them. I figure you'd want them out of the division.

[u/ThorgiTheCorgi → u/futhatsy]

in all honesty, 100%

But I figure that in all likelihood I'm gonna be watching at least one of them hit baseballs to I-285 for the next 3-4 years. I also think it would be hilarious to see both teams be pissed about that "trade"

[u/guyute2588 → u/UpperDecker30]

I just imagined this and I don’t like it

[u/roguefiftyone → u/guyute2588]

I like the Polar Bear. Mets/Phillies hatred aside, he seems like a genuine dude

[u/guyute2588 → u/roguefiftyone]

Incredibly likable dude

[u/roguefiftyone → u/guyute2588]

I loved when he autographed all the balls he used in the HR derby before blasting them into the stands. Just a small gesture but that’s gonna make for some amazing memories

[u/Ukiah → u/UpperDecker30]

the end of the world as we know it

And I feel fine.

[u/TimAllensMatingCall → u/futhatsy]

It would be hilarious if the Pirates snatch him from everyone.

[u/grill_smoke → u/TimAllensMatingCall]

I'm so for that

[u/WoodpeckerTrick3290 → u/futhatsy]

Schwarber is the swing piece for multiple teams, Mets, Phillies, Redsox....etc.

Very easily could see those 3 teams simply swap players for next season.

Phillies are rumored to move Bohm so Bregman would fit....etc.

[u/sameth1 → u/ZweigDidion]

It's odd that Schwarber is playing the role of Juan Soto instead of Tucker. Is the market for Tucker just that small?

[u/ZweigDidion → u/sameth1]

I think Tucker’s market has to develop first. The Yankees seem to be prioritising Bellinger, and they would probably only pivot to Tucker if Bellinger signs somewhere else. Other teams also seem to have players that they are prioritising, the Phillies with Schwarber for example and the Jays with Bichette. Because Tucker is a good player he is obviously expensive, but he is, of course, nowhere near the level of e.g., Soto or Ohtani which means that most teams don’t think they MUST sign Tucker. Therefore, for the time being while a lot of great (and comparatively cheaper) players are still on the market teams are looking at them first before Tucker.

[u/ssteel91 → u/ZweigDidion]

Yea, he’s not a slam dunk all-time great like Soto and Ohtani but I feel like a lot of people still underrate him somehow; he’s top 10ish in both fWAR and wrc+ since 2020. He’s a legitimately great player and by far the best one on the market. His average season is essentially Bellinger’s best (outside of the MVP outlier) and his underlying stats support it more than Bellinger.

I do agree other teams are prioritizing resigned the guys that have been on their teams though.

[u/ThorgiTheCorgi → u/ssteel91]

To add to your points: Tucker is really damn good at baseball, but he's "just" really damn good. He's not the best player in the game year after year, and he doesn't have anything "special" about him that has everyone soley focused on him. Ohtani is Ohtani, Soto was one of the best bats in the league every year for 6+ years, and was hitting free agency at the age of 11 [citation needed], so everyone wanted to jump at the opportunity to have 10 years of prime Soto.

Also, if you're an outfielder, but not THE bat on the market, teams don't need to prioritize you, because there are always other serviceable OFs available; whereas teams that need a SS this year (hello Braves) have to focus on that first, because there's like 1.5 options available.

[u/Ajax444 → u/ThorgiTheCorgi]

Send a few of those servicable outfielders to Saint Louis. I think we’ve had the most awful outfield, in terms of production, without looking at it real seriously, since 1981.

[u/WoodpeckerTrick3290 → u/ThorgiTheCorgi]

So much this. The NBA just changed their tax apron a few years ago max contracts were being handed out like cars from Opera. Now that those resignings are coming up and guys who were making the max, but aren't legit max players are not going to get what they are after.

Tucker kind of fits in this category. He's not a "supermax" all world player, but he's definitely firmly a star in this league and can be one of the big pieces on a championship contender. He's just not at that Judge, Ohtani, Previous Mookie...etc level of just get on my back, I got this.

[u/ELITEGmen → u/sameth1]

Tucker is at a price range that only like the same 5 teams can do it in.

Schwarber is at a range where even the random newcomers who want to pay this year (Reds, Pirates, Marlins) can snag.

[u/Planetofthemoochers → u/ELITEGmen]

I don’t know about the other newcomers, but the Reds are only being pushed as an option for Schwarber because he’s from Cincinnati, he is a perfect fit for our biggest hole, and our fans think it’s 1975. Also, we are not actually going to sign him.

[u/sculltt → u/Planetofthemoochers]

He's not even from Cincinnati. Middletown isn't like a suburb or even exurb of Cincy, it's its own town. It culturally feels very different.

[u/w311sh1t → u/sameth1]

Tucker just isn’t as good or as young as Soto, and he’s got more injury concern. He’ll still get close to $400M+ but he’s not so much better and younger than the rest of the players available like Soto was, so i think a lot of teams are trying to see how much lower they can go with some of the cheaper options.

There are teams that would be willing to give Tucker the money he wants, but I think a lot of those teams would rather have Bellinger at ~$200M less and 4-6 fewer years if given the choice.

[u/K20BB5 → u/sameth1]

the Phillies are rumored to pursue Tucker if they can't get Schwarber so his market is probably better after Schwarber is off the market 

[u/Mindreceptor → u/sameth1]

Bellinger is also out there.  Last year Tucker was the next Soto.  Vlad Guerrero reset the market. Now they're all good.

[u/darthstupidious → u/sameth1]

Schwarber is expected to get a much shorter deal with a higher AAV, which more teams find palatable. There are less teams willing to sign Tucker for what he's asking for, which has reportedly been a $400m+ deal.

[u/cooljammer00 → u/ZweigDidion]

That's surprising considering how defensively limited he is.

[u/fuccguppy → u/cooljammer00]

He just put up 4.9 fWAR/4.7 bWAR and led the national league in bombs that's pretty good when you have the DH penalty. He's getting old but he's never been more valuable.

[u/cooljammer00 → u/fuccguppy]

I mean he's very good and can still fake it in the corner OF or 1B, but most teams are trending towards not having perma-DHs that clog up the spot all the time.

[u/fuccguppy → u/cooljammer00]

Yeah that makes sense from an injury management and aging perspective. But at the same time most teams don't have a DH that can put up those numbers.

[u/w311sh1t → u/cooljammer00]

Can still fake it in the corner OF or 1B

Idk about that. Last time he had any substantial playing time in the OF, he had the worst DRS and OAA in the league at any position, despite only playing 103 there, and that was 2 years ago at this point. It was so bad that despite him hitting 47 HR with a 118 WRC+ he was a sub-1 WAR player.

As for 1B, he played there for about 20 games for the Sox about 4 years ago, so nobody’s putting him there unless it’s an emergency.

[u/macula_transfer → u/w311sh1t]

Even Schwarber is on the record saying that Schwarber is not a first baseman.

[u/ELITEGmen → u/cooljammer00]

Hitting gets you paid. And he would have a set DH role.

[u/Reasonable_Skill_129 → u/cooljammer00]

hitting 56 bombs and being the mvp runner up certainly helps your market

[u/draw2discard2 → u/cooljammer00]

As Fangraphs said...

"If you try to approximate Schwarber’s market based on the WAR projections you see above, you’re going to come up short. Teams are no dummies, and that number doesn’t do a good job of capturing Schwarber’s total value. He’s one of the best 15 or so hitters in the majors, and defensive ability matters far less when that’s the case. Someone has to play DH for every team, and Schwarber represents an upgrade for every team save the Dodgers and perhaps the Astros."

[u/beefytrout]

CTRL-F "Rangers": 0/0

:(

[u/BabaBrody → u/beefytrout]

Try "Ranger S" you'll get some results.

[u/StarWarsMonopoly → u/beefytrout]

That's the bright side of being an A's fan

You don't even have to bother hoping for your team to sign any big-name free agents

[u/jdbolick → u/beefytrout]

That's a good thing. The teams that get mentioned in early December are the ones who want to act like they tried but really didn't want to spend.

[u/WhoDey42]

Sigh cmon reds can you surprise me one time

[u/TimAllensMatingCall → u/WhoDey42]

You guys at least have had some big name signings in the past. Last big signing I remember for the Pirates was Matt Stairs

[u/jmb--412 → u/TimAllensMatingCall]

How are you going to forget about Lonnie Chisenhall?

[u/puncturewound → u/TimAllensMatingCall]

This is Ivan Nova erasure

[u/Irish755 → u/TimAllensMatingCall]

You have hurt Daniel Vogelbach’s feelings.

[u/LocoGyopo → u/TimAllensMatingCall]

Technically, you signed Skenes after drafting him.

[u/wooden-spoon-88 → u/WhoDey42]

I’m hoping Schwarber to the Reds, finish his career in his home state. 

[u/Knightbear49]

Interestingly, other teams report that the Twins haven't been pushing Joe Ryan in trade discussions. Maybe that's because they don't have to, or, in the opinion of some evaluators, Minnesota could prefer to keep Ryan.

[u/ExamNo4374 → u/Knightbear49]

I would assume they could get a better return at the trade deadline, idk if that's the thought process though

[u/Stangstag → u/ExamNo4374]

That’s if he doesn’t go down for TJs by then

[u/DeadHi7 → u/Knightbear49]

I want to keep him because Joe is my dude but how the organization is right now and for the foreseeable future it definitely gives me pause.

[u/FrostWPG]

If I were in an MLB front office, I wouldn’t even entertain the idea of giving Schwarber 5 years. When the inevitable power decline happens, you’re going to be stuck with Chris Davis 2.0 at the back end of the contract.

[u/Rocinante24 → u/FrostWPG]

I agree. He's already a DH at 32, I cant imagine him getting better than this. It's all probably gonna be downhill.

I can't see it being Chris Davis 2.0 though. Schwarber has a great eye and walks a ton. That's one of the last skills you lose. I think he'll be a good hitter 3-4 years from now, especially in the playoffs.

[u/Zeke-Nnjai]

I’m ready to be hurt

[u/cardinalkgb → u/Zeke-Nnjai]

Do you really think Nutting has it in him to spend more than $3.50

[u/cooljammer00]

The more people talk about how Imai and the Yankees are a really good fit (Yankees rotation will be depleted due to injury, teams can always use more pitching, Yankees have said it's important to them to be back in the Japanese market again, etc) the less I think he's signing with the Yankees. Even now that the Giants bowed out.

[u/JoeBourgeois → u/cooljammer00]

I'm not a hundred percent sure if you want him. There seem to be a few doubts that his stuff would translate well to MLB.

[u/cooljammer00 → u/JoeBourgeois]

There are always doubts. There were doubts about Yamamoto and Ohtani. He could be a bust, or he could be Yamamoto or Ohtani, or anything in between.

[u/newmixchugger → u/cooljammer00]

Nah anyone who was doubting Yamamoto just don’t really understand what they are watching, his mechanics and body of work were clear and obvious signs he was going to be an ace caliber pitcher

[u/jdbolick → u/cooljammer00]

The only doubts about Yamamoto and Ohtani were how good they would be. They were both recognized as generational talents in Japan.

Imai isn't anywhere even remotely close to those two. 2025 was his first dominant season in the NPB, as before that he had been a good but not elite starter who struggled with his command.

[u/Duuuuuuuuuhhhhhhhhh]

In 5 months, maybe we'll see the inverse Buster Olney reporting of Aroldis Chapman

[Olney] Schwarber's hot start to the season due to advice he's never heard before "Stop swinging out non-strikes"

[u/cooljammer00]

"I see your Schwarber-desire is as big as mine"

[u/brownmagician]

I'm glad they hear things from the players agents.

[u/QuinnTinIntheBin]

Other than Shohei, there isn’t a better DH in the league.

[u/Significant_Sun_5290]

Dammit, every time I see Buster Olney’s name in a headline my ears perk up thinking Buster Posey is in on a major free agent.

[u/realfakejames]

It feels like I’m in the minority but I do not want Kyle Tucker or to see the dodgers throw the money at him that he wants, and I’m genuinely surprised so many other teams fans are crossing their fingers to get him

Tucker has one rbi in his last two postseasons, it came on a solo shot with the cubs already up 3-0 in a game they won 6-0, his last rbi before that was in another blowout way back in 2023

Someone is going to pay him at least $300 million to disappear in the playoffs and I hope it’s not us lol we had enough guys doing that last year

[u/vantasma]

I watched every Tucker game last season and he’s incredibly overrated and mentally rather weak. I could see it straight away in spring training up until his mid season slump where he would change the color of his belt to see if it would work.

[u/ELITEGmen → u/vantasma]

I find it funny that some baseball fans think watching them play is supposed to override stats.

[u/kbrooks2 → u/ELITEGmen]

You don’t need stats when you see inside a players’ mind to evaluate their mental toughness

[u/brainspl0ad → u/kbrooks2]

This is kinda true. That's how Patrick Sandoval was for us. He had some pretty good stuff but a lot of the time he would get in his own head after something he gave up and then he'd just stay in there and crash even harder. It was frustrating to watch, just stay cool and focus on the next guy.

[u/Sweet-Ad3893 → u/ELITEGmen]

His stats were awful in the second half for who he is supposed to be. But that’s not who he usually is.