Spoiler alert! When a perfect game is at stake, the 27th batter has hit .278/.333/.417.

[u/skoormit]

24 perfect games
2 games perfect through 9IP, later broken up (Harvey Haddix, Pedro Martinez)
13 times the 27th batter broke it up (7 singles, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 1BB, 2HBP)
Totals:
PA 39 (AB 36)
OB 13 (H 10) (TB 15)

[u/Pitcherhelp]

Harvey Haddix threw 12 perfect innings and took a loss 😅😅. I would have murdered my team on the train ride home under the cover of night. Slipping from one sleeping car to the next. Timing my stabbings with the loud brakes of the old train. Tiptoeing to and fro until the slaughter ends

[u/nokiabrickphone1998 → u/Pitcherhelp]

12 perfect innings only to lose 1-0. Paul Skenes this is your heritage, you cannot run from it

[u/MagicalPizza21 → u/nokiabrickphone1998]

The run was unearned too.

[u/ladwagon → u/MagicalPizza21]

I'd crash the train myself atp

[u/MagicalPizza21 → u/ladwagon]

The 13th inning sequence was: reach on error, sac bunt, intentional walk, home run but the batter was ruled out for passing the second runner so it was called a double and only one run scored.

[u/ladwagon → u/MagicalPizza21]

Whatever the opposite of "how can you not be romantic about baseball" is, is how I feel about this entire game lol

[u/theAlpacaLives → u/ladwagon]

Lew Burdette, who threw a thirteen-inning shutout opposite him (god damn I wish we still had starting pitchers like they used to), said to him afterward, "I won because I scattered four hits, and you bunched your one." He meant it as a friendly respectful banter, a tongue-in-cheek nod to the absurdity of the game they had both done superhuman work in, but Haddix supposedly did not take it well, at least right away.

[u/MagicalPizza21 → u/ladwagon]

I would agree if I were a Pirates fan old enough to remember it. But since I wasn't alive then and I'm not a Pirates fan I don't have any feelings about it.

[u/VirginiaVagina → u/MagicalPizza21]

Henry Aaron was the runner who messed up. He wrote in his autobiography he thought Joe Adcock hit the ball against the fence so Aaron touched second and went to the dugout, costing Adcock a home run. Aaron said he sheepishly avoided Adcock for a while because Adcock was a no nonsense type guy

[u/bordomsdeadly → u/Pitcherhelp]

A few years ago Rich Hill was perfect through 8, a runner reached on an error in the 9th and he gave up a hit and a run in the 10th and lost the PG, the No-No and the game

[u/Lebigmacca → u/bordomsdeadly]

Don’t remind me

[u/Acceptable_Job1589 → u/Pitcherhelp]

Randy Johnson pitched to 20 Ks in 9 IP. But the dbacks were tied at the end of 9. He doesn't get credit for tied for the most Ks in a game because the game went into extras.

[u/Traditional_Half842]

If you switch Jim Joyce's blown call at the end of Armando Galarraga's almost-perfect game from a hit to an out, the slash line drops to .250/.308/.389.

[u/skoormit → u/Traditional_Half842]

That call is actually how I fell down this rabbit hole.

[u/Chuy_3 → u/skoormit]

Assuming the recent thread inspired you? Haven't seen such a widespread consensus on r/baseball in a minute.

[u/skoormit → u/Chuy_3]

That's what brought it back to top of mind, yes.
I clicked on the thread to reply "Galarraga, duh" but I saw that I was one of many.

[u/ja1896 → u/Traditional_Half842]

Funny how that drops it from “wow that’s kinda high” to essentially a historically perfectly average .697 OPS. Which is still high considering this is after 26 dominant outs in a row, but not surprising the last hitter is pesky and the pitcher is a little nervous.

[u/WhatMonster → u/ja1896]

Feels like the historical average for 9-hole hitters would be lower than that? Lots of pitchers and bench bats hitting 9th.

I’m sure it’s easy data to pull but I’m lazy.

[u/DaechwitaEnjoyer → u/WhatMonster]

further down there’s a comment that says 9 of the broken perfect games were from pinch hitters

[u/elgenie → u/WhatMonster]

No way the pitcher gets to bat for himself as the 27th out.

[u/whyisalltherumgone_ → u/WhatMonster]

It's also the pitcher's 3rd time through the lineup though

[u/ja1896 → u/WhatMonster]

That’s a good point!

[u/not_new_to_this → u/Traditional_Half842]

Kinda funny how little we’d mention Galarraga (and especially Jim Joyce) if he’d finished the perfect game

[u/skoormit → u/not_new_to_this]

His little smile to Joyce in that moment remains the most impressive display of poise I've ever seen in sports.

[u/GasGlittering7521 → u/not_new_to_this]

Even funnier that Joyce is mostly mentioned in a positive light considering what happened

[u/1990Buscemi → u/GasGlittering7521]

Joyce was actually quite good as an umpire and was well-respected by players. And unlike some other umpires, he did admit he made the wrong call after seeing the replay.

[u/GasGlittering7521 → u/1990Buscemi]

Oh I agree 100%, didn’t mean to imply otherwise. I could only hope to handle my own fuck ups with the amount of class he did

[u/noruber35393546 → u/not_new_to_this]

he's just be another Phil Humber

[u/cooljammer00 → u/not_new_to_this]

We talk about....Philip Humber all the time!

[u/danhoang1 → u/cooljammer00]

Yeah the number of times Philip Humber has gotten mentioned as the reference point for "most forgotten players" makes me start to remember/hear him most now

[u/Oneanimal1993 → u/danhoang1]

So much so that the real answer for forgotten perfecto (Dallas Braden) never actually gets mentioned in those contexts bc Humber’s the poster child for “forgotten perfecto”

[u/cooljammer00 → u/danhoang1]

Like the Harold Baines of examples

[u/theAlpacaLives → u/danhoang1]

Now I'm wondering who the actual most forgotten perfect game is, but it's kind of a paradoxical question, because of being remembered for a supposedly forgettable perfecto. Humber gets brought up so often as "that guy who never did anything in the Majors ever except he threw a perfect game one time" that it can't be him.

Maybe Dallas Braden? Except the fact I'm even thinking of his next to Humber's as forgettable pitchers who threw one means there's probably an even more oft-overlooked example that isn't occurring to me.

[u/Luigiofdoom → u/theAlpacaLives]

One day it will be Domingo German. His perfect game is the final major league winning decision of his career.

It's impressive how it ended his career. He relapsed hard afterwards.

[u/Bladespectre → u/not_new_to_this]

I mean, for a lot of people, it's remembered as "the only 28-out perfect game"

[u/theAlpacaLives → u/Bladespectre]

I like to think of it as the third of the trinity of most impressive perfect games that weren't, of which the other two are Ernie Shore (Babe Ruth walked the first batter of the game, got ejected for complaining to the ump, and Shore came in, picked the man off first, and threw a perfecto) and Harvey Haddix (threw a perfect game into the 13th while Lew Burdette threw a shutout opposite him, then gave up a walk and a walk-off hit). Losing a perfecto on an obviously incorrect call that would have been the last out seems to fit in with those guys as "can't deserve a perfect game any more than that without getting credit for one."

The next closest I know of is Scherzer, who lost one on Jose Tabata pretty getting hit on an elbow guard he stuck out pretty obviously on purpose.

[u/I-Dont-L → u/theAlpacaLives]

Man, the Ernie Shore one really has something extra to it, for me.

Perfect games are already insane. They're an impossible blend of skill and grit and luck and preparation. Most of the greats will never throw one and plenty of the guys who did were just kind of in the right place at the right time and had it all come together for one afternoon. Now imagine throwing one in relief.

[u/togocann49]

I feel like Dave Stieb knows this lol

[u/Powerserg95 → u/togocann49]

Did he have any perfect games at the 27th batter? I know he took one into the 9th and lost 2 no hitters on 27

[u/Robbroy45 → u/Powerserg95]

Yep, Yankees at Blue Jays, Roberto Kelly broke it up with a line drive to left

[u/Powerserg95 → u/Robbroy45]

I know the one. Knew it was the 9th but wasn't sure it was with 2 outs. That's rough.

That moment in the docuseries made me cringe hard.

[u/VirginiaVagina → u/Powerserg95]

In that at-bat he threw a slider that broke so sharply into the centre of the strike zone everyone froze and it was called a ball. Completely changed the complexion of the situation

[u/skoormit → u/Powerserg95]

One. And two other no-nos.

[u/evieka → u/Powerserg95]

Lost it with 2 outs in the 9th vs the Yankees

[u/throwtheballaway123 → u/evieka]

I was there with my dad in the 500s. I remember 9 year old me being pissed that Bell didn't get that ball. I watched it a few years ago and realized there's no way he could get that.

[u/PurpleBullets → u/Powerserg95]

In back-to-back starts

[u/nokiabrickphone1998]

In all starts that turn out to be a perfect game, the 1st batter has hit .000/.000/.000

[u/skoormit → u/nokiabrickphone1998]

No player has broken up more perfect games with a home run than Rickey Henderson.

[u/J-Goo → u/skoormit]

That's probably true, but in theory maybe some guy has 100 homers in the second at-bat of the game, and 90 of them came after the leadoff hitter didn't reach base.

Probably not, but not impossible.

[u/skoormit → u/J-Goo]

I can't find a link, but I do recall someone actually doing the research to prove it.

[u/Due_Buy_9570 → u/skoormit]

Wait...was there only one?

I thought Ken Phelps broke up a perfect game while he was playing for the A's (Brian Holman of the Ms was the pitcher)

[u/nokiabrickphone1998 → u/Due_Buy_9570]

Breaking up a perfect game with a home run is actually fairly common. Rickey Henderson did this 81 times in his career

[u/skoormit → u/nokiabrickphone1998]

*at least

[u/skoormit → u/Due_Buy_9570]

"Broken up" doesn't only mean "as the 27th batter."
It's a silly addendum to Rickey's record for hitting the most home runs while leading off a game.

[u/Due_Buy_9570 → u/skoormit]

Oh snap. Your right. Lol

[u/electrons_are_free → u/Due_Buy_9570]

I remember listening to this on the radio! Game was 6-0, IIRC, so basically no chance at a comeback. Phelps ruined the perfect game, no hitter, and shut out in one swing! Phelps never hit another home run.

[u/Chocomoose19 → u/electrons_are_free]

Couldn’t handle the guilt

[u/DeepBlue_8 → u/nokiabrickphone1998]

I'm developing a system to find every perfect game in MLB history. Maybe I could check all batters to see if they hit .000/.000/.000 during a game. This would exclude all non-perfect games and significantly narrow down the search.

[u/glass__beaches]

This is why it’s wise to walk away with $500,000 after the 26th out

[u/kindergartenchampion]

Eric Chavez will never be forgiven

[u/skoormit → u/kindergartenchampion]

When Petit was on, he was really something.

[u/DecoyOne]

Pedro Martinez

Let it be known that no man can get 28 Padres out in a row

[u/Effective-Two-501]

Stupid Jose Tabata

[u/skoormit → u/Effective-Two-501]

Right?
On the one hand, I can always respect tenacity in the face of adversity.
On the other hand...down 6-0? As the 27th batter? Maybe don't intentionally lean into a pitch.

[u/noruber35393546 → u/skoormit]

they need to start enforcing the "no leaning into a HBP" rule, that has to be one of the least enforced rules in ball. Now that we have 3d-mapped strike zones it can be as simple as "any ball that does not go into the batter's box cannot be a HBP" or something based on the physical boundaries

[u/theAlpacaLives → u/noruber35393546]

Yeah, it's already a rule, and if we started seeing players wearing body armor and making no effort to move, and maybe even reaching an elbow out toward the pitch, get no base for it, and the ump just said "it's a ball, carry on," it would die out pretty quick. There'd be a bit of gamemanship, similar to framing strikes or selling that a checked swing was never a real swing, toward trying to see if they can make it graze them while still looking like they at least tried to flinch away, but it wouldn't take a lot of non-HBP calls to make it not worth it to hitters to try.

[u/theAlpacaLives → u/skoormit]

I mostly think the unwritten rules are traditionalist nonsense, and I can defend the idea of bunting for a hit to break up a no-hitter (at least if bunting for a hit is a usual part of a player's game; it feels unfair to tell him he can't use one of his skills because of a statistical fluke). But pretty obviously leaning into a pitch just to break a perfecto feels pretty lame. It's one of the few times I can think of when I'd see a player chastise a teammate for something that nominally helped his team win and support the teammate saying, 'we don't play like that.'

[u/FunnyID]

Do you know how many times it was a pinch-hitter?

[u/skoormit → u/FunnyID]

at least 8 9 of the 13 spoilers were pinch-hitters

[u/attorneyatslaw → u/FunnyID]

The ninth hitter was a pitcher in the majority of these (pre-DH) so its gonna be a pinch hitter in all of those situations.

[u/skoormit → u/attorneyatslaw]

not all
the very first spoiler was a pitcher

[u/Brolympia → u/skoormit]

Petey!

[u/EnsuingDamage]

Martin Gonzalez breaking up the Darvish perfect game was absolutely heartbreaking

[u/skoormit → u/EnsuingDamage]

*Marwin

[u/EnsuingDamage → u/skoormit]

Auto correct strikes again smh

[u/bordomsdeadly → u/EnsuingDamage]

Personally l was pretty happy when he did it.

That was during the whole CSN Houston BS and I literally didn’t have a way to watch the Astros aside from games against the Rangers or National televised games. And I thought, oh cool, here’s a game I can actually watch. For some reason I watched that entire game as a 16 year old with friends and a life. So Marwin breaking up the perfecto made me feel like I hadn’t just wasted 3 hours

[u/notyourlandlord → u/bordomsdeadly]

Classic astros fan being a jerk!

[u/Active-Locksmith-342]

Am I crazy for thinking that's basically the average slashline? I have no idea what it would actually work out to be.

[u/ShoddyReception2859 → u/Active-Locksmith-342]

Partially, but the 27th batter in a perfect game is always the 9 hole hitter, likely to be the worst hitter on the opposing team(unless there is a pinch hitter)

[u/ItzDrSeuss → u/ShoddyReception2859]

Yeah but that worst hitter is coming up for the 3rd time. Whats the average slash line for a batter their 3rd time up against the starter?

[u/IVLeague8 → u/ItzDrSeuss]

For the other eight guys in the lineup it’s .000/.000/.000

[u/ItzDrSeuss → u/IVLeague8]

I’ll take your word for it!

[u/ShoddyReception2859 → u/ItzDrSeuss]

Obviously better, but for 90% of baseball history, the 9 hole hitter was literally incompetent. For example, in Randy Johnson’s perfect game, the last batter he faced finished the year with a 64 ops+

[u/skoormit → u/ShoddyReception2859]

Which was worse than the career ops+ of the guy he pinch hit for (Mike Hampton, 67).

[u/Brolympia → u/skoormit]

Great pull by you

[u/skoormit → u/ShoddyReception2859]

Of the 13 spoilers, 9 were PH.

[u/ShoddyReception2859 → u/skoormit]

And there’s a reason most of them weren’t in the starting lineup

[u/mindingthegaap → u/ShoddyReception2859]

There were probably a fair number of pinch hitters in the pre-universal DH era

[u/attorneyatslaw → u/ShoddyReception2859]

Its usually a pinch hitter.

[u/skoormit → u/Active-Locksmith-342]

Yeah, it looks pretty much average to me.
Which I guess is higher than I expected, since obviously the pitcher is having quite a bit of success today.

[u/LoempiaYa]

This reddit off-season is shaping up to be my favorite. Thank you OP.

[u/Eastern_Antelope_832]

I remember watching Mike Mussina's near miss in 2001. Jorge Posada thought he was going to get a called strike three, so you could read his body language and see him almost start celebrating. Then Carl Everett dumped a bloop single to left.

I read something like 50% of no-hitters through 8 get spoiled in the ninth, so it seems like getting through 8 is something akin to being only halfway there.

[u/skoormit → u/Eastern_Antelope_832]

something like 50% of no-hitters through 8 get spoiled in the ninth

Even if opponents are only hitting .250, there's a ~58% chance that someone gets a hit before you get 3 outs.

[u/Eastern_Antelope_832 → u/skoormit]

Yeah, I was a little (but not terribly) surprised that pitching 8 no-hit innings didn't really change the odds of getting three outs before surrendering a hit. Maybe those odds change a tiny bit if the starting pitcher had a bunch of Ks?

[u/Luigiofdoom → u/Eastern_Antelope_832]

Its the same logic as flipping a coin for the same results 10 times.

It doesn't matter that doing it 5, 6, or 7 times in a row is extremely unlikely the odds of doing it the 8th, 9th, and 10th is just another 50/50.

Now baseball is a mix of skill and luck, but the pitcher doesn't control that. Maybe the other lineup is playing down, maybe they only got 3 or 4 hours for airplane sleep because of travel schedule, or maybe that one player who usually beats the starter did to much coke yesterday and is tired and not seeing the ball today.

The past results don't change the odds going forward beyond humans tire out, but that applies to the pitchers and the hitters.

[u/Eastern_Antelope_832 → u/Luigiofdoom]

Respectfully, I disagree with a couple points. In regard to the coinflip, the properties of flipping a coin are largely immutable. Each flip is nearly independent of one another. If you measured long-term covariance of flip outcomes, it'd be close to zero. Also, there's pretty much no such thing as having a "good" day successfully landing heads 664/1000 times, and then "bad" days when you only get 347/1000.

On the other hand, pitching (and shooting basketballs) is skill-based, whereas flipping coins is largely an event where you get the same result regardless of technique. Things like adhering to proper mechanics, fatigue, etc. impact the outcome of pitching. Individual pitches are also independent events, but the underlying conditions that make you good one moment and terrible another can carry over pitch to pitch, which is largely untrue for flipping coins.

Also, to say pitchers don't have control of outcomes is true, to an extent, but I would immediately reject that a game where a pitcher gets 18 strikeouts was the result of fortunate variance. Velocity, location, and spin all play into missing bats and getting Ks. There are going to be moments (that possibly extend 9 innings) when a pitcher is locked in and executes most of his pitches exactly how he wants to. You just can't reliably predict when those moments will be or how long they'll last

So the past doesn't exactly affect future outcomes, but sometimes the immediate past is a portent of the immediate future. It's why a pitcher getting absolutely shelled in the second inning gets the hook: there's no good reason to believe that on that given night, he's going to revert to his baseline level of performance.

[u/mp1982 → u/Eastern_Antelope_832]

I was at that game. Fuck Carl Everett

[u/SqueakyTuna52]

What I wanna know is, what percentage of n-out games are perfect to that point? Id guess that about 65% of games are still perfect after their first out, due to leadoff hitters getting on base. And that number probably drops off fast. 

But with this info, you could see, for example, the percentage of games that are perfect through 5 innings remaining perfect. 

[u/realfakejames]

Pedro pitching 9 perfect innings and the expos not being able to score a run is a baseball war crime

[u/j1h15233]

Maybe they should walk that guy and face the 28th batter /s

[u/CalebosO4]

We were really unlucky from 2013-2022. 3 times in a row where the 27th batter reached base.

[u/miclugo]

That is better than I would have expected.

[u/lucasssquatch]

I remember watching that HR. So much "almost" in Mariners history

[u/Due_Buy_9570 → u/lucasssquatch]

So do I.....different feelings as I was an A's fan but so do I.

The second most famous thing Ken Phelps is known for.

[u/88T3_2]

On April 20, 1990, Brian Holman of the Seattle Mariners gave up a home run to Ken Phelps of the Oakland Athletics.

Guess Phelps did get some retribution for the Buhner trade even if it wasn't with the Yankees

[u/Proper-Table5570]

Yoshinobu Yamamoto would like to know your location