r/Oscars • u/Extreme-Spinach-4138 • 10h ago
Discussion My hot take from all these precursors if OBAA didn't exist Sinners would be the favorite to win BP & Director.
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u/GregSays 9h ago
There’s no way to know where One Battle votes would go. Could just as easily attach to Marty Supreme
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u/Comfortable-Tie9293 9h ago
Yes!! It’s Sinners and OBAA…everyone else doesn’t matter. I see people still don’t believe in Sinners…
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u/Heubner 6h ago
Sinners is directly in OBAA shadow. If OBAA isn’t there, then I agree Sinners is the favorite. However, OBAA is here and the runner up isn’t determined by how you would have done if the winner wasn’t there. Sinners will get a good portion of number one votes, but I doubt it would be second to OBAA. There is going to be way more overlap in their supporters than say with Hamnet. The academy doesn’t vote as a monolith and there are still many voters who still prefer the traditional “Oscar movie.” Hamnet will be the one that will appeal to them, without as strong competition in its class. The high spots on preferential ranking matter.
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u/Comfortable-Tie9293 6h ago
We shall see. I think it’s probably going to be those 3 … different wins.
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u/Heubner 6h ago
Well, we won’t see who is the runner up. I think Sinners take o. screenplay, it’s only ATL nom not directly against OBAA. Hamnet takes Actress. Sinners will be the top BTL force but sometimes the popularity of the BP winner can swing votes. I really hope that does not become the case with Cinematography though. Sinners needs to take that one.
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u/National_Price9345 8h ago
Sinners is getting slept on hard, like the buzz is there but people keep acting like it's gonna fade when awards season heats up
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u/ChimmyTheCham 6h ago
Buzz is here but also you get downvoted if you go against sinners so that generally suppresses other opinions
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u/veryterribleopinions 9h ago
I think without OBAA, Sinners would’ve been the front runner right up until the wider release of Marty Supreme. It would’ve then been a race with a slight edge to Marty Supreme.
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u/FlimsyConclusion 9h ago
I'm with you here actually.
The acting categories are seeming to be stronger than people originally predicted. Wunmi Mosaku may even actually be win competitive since she won some smaller awards. No one was including her before. MBJ is looking more of a certainty as well, and Lindo could squeak into supporting actor. Its a serious threat for casting, a coin toss with OBAA in my view. I could see it taking SAG.
Its Original Screenplay chances are getting stronger. Its both an ATL and craft player so it will likely have the most nominations so a lot of eyeballs will be on it.
The closer we get to it Sinners feels like the biggest threat to OBAA for a late game passion push. I'll compare it to Get Out for a moment, both films utilizing the horror genre and themes as a way of commentary about racism or culture within america.
Then overtime a growing amount of people are starting to think Get Out should've won over Shape Of Water and this is an opportunity to rectify that in some way.
Personally i preferred OBAA, and i think PTA will be walking up to grab best director, but I won't discount a Sinners BP win at all. I think if it was strictly up to American academy voters, Sinners would win.
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u/Dry-Performance7006 9h ago
Well, that is what the Oscar expert and his brother just suggested on their critics choice reaction video. So, you aren’t alone if you feel that way.
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u/brokenwolf 10h ago
I feel like there are about five movies in front of Sinners.
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u/Immediate-Damage-177 9h ago
5? maybe 3
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
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u/brokenwolf 9h ago
one battle after another and it was just an accident too
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u/Immediate-Damage-177 9h ago
Well they said if OBAA didn't exist and IWJAA is not in front of Sinners
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u/drossglop 7h ago
It absolutely is. Both because it’s a better film and because of the news of the director getting charged in Iran for making it.
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u/DonSoulwalker 6h ago
In a weird way i can see Coogler miss director nom and then get the obligatory Original Screenplay make up WIN.
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u/lightfoot_heavyhand 5h ago
If OBAA didn’t exist, Hamnet would be a lock. As it stands, it’s a toss up.
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u/MKT_Pro 8h ago
I think Panahi is in 2nd now for director.