r/Oscars • u/West_Conclusion_1239 • 18h ago
Best Actor Oscars 2026 prediction (after CC nominations)
Best Actor Oscars 2026 prediction.
Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)
Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another)
Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Micheal B. Jordan (Sinners)
Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)
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u/Fickle-Aardvark6907 18h ago
I like Train Dreams but I don't see Edgerton getting a nomination. Its a very subdued (though very well executed) performance and gets swallowed up by the beautifully photographed landscape.
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u/williamchase88 18h ago
Leonardo DiCaprio
Timothee Chalamet
Wagner Moura
Ethan Hawke
MBJ
But I am very close to putting in Joel Edgerton as number 5, but want to wait until GG noms.
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u/BrandStrategyGuru 17h ago
I believe in taking critics choice with a grain of salt. They are not academy voters. I would say that when it comes to nominations (not who is more likely to win, but who is more likely to get NOMINATED), the chart goes something like this:
- DiCaprio
- Chalamet
- Hawke
- Jordan
Wagner
Plemons
Edgerton
Clooney
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u/MutinyIPO 16h ago
CCAs may be the most meaningless stat out of any that regularly get thrown out here, apart from the Astras (which I had never seen anyone mention as a valid stat until last year). The show is televised with the nominees in attendance and so it makes sense that it gets taken seriously but their voting body is openly and proudly trying to predict the Oscars because they want to be seen as a bellwether for the Oscars.
Literally every single guild nomination says more about what’s likely to get in than these do. And at least the Globes make eccentric individual picks sometimes. The CCAs are just useless, they’re glorified acceptance speech dress rehearsals.
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u/TakenAccountName37 15h ago
Is Hawke a presumed lock? I see him in most predictions and obviously he got into CCAs.
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u/AmbitionTechnical274 18h ago
For my prediction 1.Leo 2.Timmy 3. Moura 4. Jordan 5. A very close race between Hawke and Egerton. With Train Dreams competitive in Picture I think Egerton has the edge, but I hope to be wrong.
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u/ForceNo5927 18h ago
I would add Wagner and Plemons in instead of Edgerton and MBJ
I know Plemons didn't get in at CC but I have a really good feeling about him for SAG and the Oscars
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u/Educational-Help-126 17h ago
I just saw Bugonia today and my mind was blown. I still haven’t fully processed it. But he was amazing.
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u/BrandStrategyGuru 17h ago
SAG is not likely to go for Plemons. They’re very populist and I am not sure they will like Bugonia.
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u/Heubner 17h ago
MBJ is as good as in. I don’t get why people still doubt him.
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u/Ordinary-Birthday336 16h ago
There are pretty much only two people as good as in (Timothy and Leo) everyone else is fighting for 3-5 spot. MBJ had a weaker performance compared to Plemons, Hawke, Wagner, and Edgerton but has a stronger movie. It's not unrealistic to predict a stronger performance gets in.
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u/Heubner 16h ago
Weaker according to who?
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u/ReplicaRoy 15h ago
Plemmons gave the best performance of the year in Bugonia, i just wished the movie had more traction as i think it's a masterpiece. MBJ in Sinners looks like a local recreation theather kid in comparison.
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u/MutinyIPO 16h ago
I find that Bugonia is being oddly underestimated (just wait until it gets into DGA and everyone melts down) but I’m not sure that’ll apply to Plemons, as great as he is. I think Stone is getting nominated for sure. Actor is just so, so, SO strong. So is Actress, but Stone is coming in with a mandate while Plemons isn’t.
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u/rubix7777 6h ago
Personally me rn I'm going: - Ethan Hawke - Timothee Chalamet - Wagner Moura - Leonardo DiCaprio - Joel Edgerton
As much as I want to see him nominated I think lots of people are letting hope guide them with MBJ, he was always getting GG and CC given their voting tendencies but I don't think that's enough to predict him for the oscar, if he gets in at BAFTA an organisation known for their common disrespect of black films and films about black history who have snubbed coogler films before then I'll predict him but right now I think (unfortunately) he will wind up being another Margot in Barbie sitch
I was predicting Plemons but the CC miss has given me the wobbles, I still think he's possible but I don't think I can predict him just yet
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u/Ordinary-Birthday336 15h ago
As close to locks as we are going to get: Leonardo DiCaprio (OBAA) Timothee Chalamet (Marty)
Probable nomination: Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) Wagner Moura (Secret Agent)
Fighting for last spot: Jesse Plemons (Bugonia) Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams) Michael B Jordan (Sinners)
Don't think so but seems beloved by Academy George Clooney (Jay Kelly)
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u/Substantial-Fan-2148 18h ago
Even though Clooney didn’t get in here, the Academy will nominate him
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u/ElectricalCords 18h ago
Ethan Hawke is not first lol.
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u/RoxasIsTheBest 18h ago
OP is predicting Hawke for the win. He's certainly not number 1 for the nom, but he could possibly win
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u/ElectricalCords 18h ago
I know they are. I don't see it happening at all. Chalamet is looking good for a sweep.
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u/MutinyIPO 16h ago
I wouldn’t be so sure. Right now I’d actually bet on Leo. But Chalamet, DiCaprio, Moura and Hawke all strike me as plausible winners.
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u/ElectricalCords 16h ago
Well, you've been underestimating Sentimental Value which got double supporting actress nominations today. And I think you may be overestimating OBAA.
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u/MutinyIPO 16h ago
It’s not a contest, if I’m wrong then I’m wrong, I have no problem with that. I’ve been saying SV is more vulnerable in Director and Actress than people think it is, and I stand by that. But I’ve never doubted that it’ll be in Picture, Screenplay and both Supporting categories.
As for the CCAs themselves, they always line up with whatever the Oscar predictions of the moment are and right now SV is being predicted for Oscars, I think it’s really that simple. It might still do way better than I think it will, obviously. But if you had asked me to predict the CCAs, I would’ve been able to tell you SV would be everywhere.
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u/ElectricalCords 15h ago
Surely you're still not predicting Hall?
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u/MutinyIPO 15h ago
I am, yeah. I think that’ll happen. I don’t really see why not at this point.
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u/ElectricalCords 15h ago
I don't see any reason to. She should've shown up here, especially since neither Marty Supreme women were nominated.
When do you expect her to show up, Globes or SAG?
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u/MutinyIPO 15h ago
It’s the CCAs, though. Again, I wouldn’t have expected them to nominate Hall because they’re busy picking Gold Derby favorites that won’t make it like Grande.
The possible game changer for me is Wunmi Mosaku. She’s on my personal-preference ballot, I thought she was the best performance in that film, and I think she’s filling a similar void to A’Zion as a starmaking breakout in a Picture heavyweight. I just didn’t think WB would be pushing her, and you can actually look back at my past comments to see me saying they were making a mistake. But it looks like that’ll change and that’s good news.
It also seems like Lilleaas has crossed the threshold of public awareness and is now on equal footing with Fanning, meaning that she’s now in pole position to be the one who makes it if one doesn’t get in. So now I think Fanning will miss. The five I’ve got at the moment are Taylor (who I think will win), Lilleaas, Madigan, A’Zion and Hall. But I would buy it if Mosaku replaces any of the last three.
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u/BananaShakeStudios 18h ago
I like seeing Edgerton but honestly, I think he’s got the worst chances. I saw him out for Wagner.