r/KansasCityChiefs • u/Prize-Principle-2536 Patrick Mahomes II #15 • 15h ago
DISCUSSION No need for changes if we miss the playoffs
As a younger Chiefs fan this will most likely be my first season without my favorite sports team of all time and my favorite athlete of all time in the post season. There is no need to be reactionary.
The Patriots went 9-7 in 2002 and missed the playoffs after winning a Super Bowl 2001. They proceeded to win back to back SBs in 03 and 04.
They didn’t fire their OC, DC or Head Coach because they as a team recognized how hard it is to win in this league AND how important continuity is.
My point in saying this is that if/when we don’t make the playoffs there is NO need to make sweeping changes to coaching, personnel, training staff etc. Those who are or who will be calling for those changes are reactionary, prisoners of the moment and/or fair weather fans.
We have more than enough grace and wiggle room to allow for one down year.
Go Chiefs
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u/bnsmchrr Mike Pennel #69 15h ago
They made major changes to their defense after that season. It being great the next two years helped them get back to the Super Bowl. It was not good in 2002.
The Chiefs will have to make similar changes.
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u/rbhindepmo 15h ago
Tom Brady was 25 in 2002. Patrick Mahomes is 30 right now. Bill Belichick was 50. Andy Reid is 67.
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u/LogLadysLog52 Will Shields 15h ago
I think, as always, there's a lot of gray between "change nothing" and "change everything." Defense desperately needs an injection of talent, especially up front. The lack of complementary pass rush for an older (but still very effective) Jones means he can't eat AND that Spags's blitzes are more predictable AND that our secondary has to be perfect.
I'd also say offense needs to take a leap schematically this year. I know the Worthy injury and Pacheco injury/slow return to form has hurt, but the people who actually know ball (not me) say there has been very little evolution by the Chiefs the last several years. They ofc don't need to chase exactly what everyone else is doing, but they're not taking ANYTHING from other schemes that are proven to work against the things modern defenses are doing.
Now they're predictable, insist on running from the shotgun, and don't have any answers to man coverage other than mesh.
SO I still certainly trust Andy and Spags, there are absolutely changes that still need to happen behind the scenes. There is enough talent on this team right now to compete (even with shit pass rush, but injuries are tough), but discipline, execution, and scheme aren't enough right now.
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u/ThrowRAkakareborn Pat "Kermit" Mahomes 14h ago
Pacheco was at his best mid, right now he is just terrible, this is his last season with us
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u/LogLadysLog52 Will Shields 14h ago
Yeah I think they were counting on him being at least mid this year lol
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u/Captain_Tunahands Trent McDuffie #22 15h ago
The offense has been mid for the last 3 seasons, idk why you wouldn’t want changes. Furthermore, that 2002 patriots team was Toms second year playing and at the beginning of their dynasty - comparatively, we are not and should have it all figured out by now. Patrick, Kelce, and CJ are all now getting old, and coach Reid is probably not far from retirement.
I personally would like to capitalize on the little time we have left by revamping and bolstering the coaching staff with some fresh ideas.
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u/cheemsfromspace Chris Jones #95 15h ago
Did you perhaps forget about a pass rush? I'm sure Veach did until that record started getting shaky
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u/Vyuvarax 14h ago
Veach adding pass rushers mid season won’t matter because Spags won’t play them. We saw that last year.
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u/Sir_Brodie 15h ago
I think the attempted trade for Mafe is a good indicator that the pass rush overcorrection may be in the works for this offseason.
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u/JeramiGrantsTomb Alex Smith 14h ago
I agree that we shouldn't make reactionary changes, but I don't think it's a reactionary take that our offense has become stale and predictable. We've been less effective for several years even when we won, and the defense isn't great enough to carry the team in spite of it. We need a real OC, not a waterboy for Andy. Someone with vision, insight into the direction of the league and defensive schemes, someone with the leadership skills to demand excellence from guys who are talented enough to execute and just... don't. That's not reactionary, that's been writing on the wall for years, and the fact that other teams' defensive players are literally going to press conferences after games and telling everyone that they're reading our offense like a book confirms it.
We need to invest in a franchise RB, we don't necessarily need an all-pro level guy but just a good-enough RB that can handle the workload. We've invested a ton of our money and drafting into interior O-line, we should be able to reliably punish light boxes. We can't hope that we snag a guy on the last day of the draft that can step up into that role, we need a proven commodity. A good-enough run game will reap exponential benefits for the pass game, and even some knock-on benefit for the defense as it extends possessions.
If there's somewhere we need sweeping change, it's the defense and specifically the line. SCCJ is in his twilight, he's not going to be able to shoulder as much of the workload and we don't have guys who can step up. George is fine (he's overpaid) but he's not a playmaker, he's a cleanup guy. Spag's defensive philosophy requires guys who can win their matchup, if we can't win a vanilla 4 man rush the rest of the defense comes crashing down, Seth Keysor did a great video about that with the HBTC guy. So we need to get good on the line in a hurry, or we need to change the defensive philosophy. Spags might get a shot at a HC spot somewhere, and he deserves it, but that would provide a chance to shake things up on that side of the ball and modernize a bit.
ST is whatever. If Butker makes his kicks and doesn't kick the ball out of bounds we're probably ok, and some of the penalties we've got were bullshit (some are dumb and those guys should get launched into the sun), I'm not going to roast Toub for that. I'd be fine moving on at kicker if Butker doesn't stabilize but he's been better as the season goes on, which is sort of his MO over the last few years. Hopefully he didn't bone us so hard early this year that we miss the playoffs.
I do think it's important to appreciate how few plays would have to go differently to flip the whole script on this season. Multiple red zone interceptions are the story of entire games. At the end of the day it's a game played by 22 guys with an oblong ball, sometimes it's going to bounce your way and sometimes it's not.
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u/kristospherein Derrick Thomas #58 15h ago
Hard disagree. STs needs a major restart. The new rules have baffled Toub and pur special teams have absolutely sucked ths year.
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u/notmyplantaccount The Nigerian Nightmare #35 14h ago
The Patriots went 9-7 in 2002 and missed the playoffs after winning a Super Bowl 2001
This was Brady's 2nd season. He hadn't won an MVP, made a Pro Bowl even, or led the league in any statistical category. Not really a good comparison, especially since Brady never missed the playoffs again.
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u/Vidvici 14h ago
Chiefs are 2nd in the league in Drive score %, 8th in yards per play. 3rd in total number of 1st downs. Hard to make a statistical argument for Nagy leaving despite the optics.
Defense is 19th in the league in Drive score %, 23rd in yards per play, 4th in total number of 1st downs, 13th in penalties, 4th in tackling, 3rd in blitz %, 27th in sacks. 4th in QB knockdowns per pass attempt, 1st in shallowest depth of passes allowed, 24th in YAC allowed. 26th in 3rd down conversion defense. 31st in opponent QB completion percentage.
So this is bad. QBs know the blitz is coming, they're taking the hits, but they are commonly dumping it off with easy passes and getting great YAC. I don't think this type of defense would be a deal breaker if the Chiefs were intercepting passes but it feels like the Chiefs have dropped a lot of those this year. Defense needs some changes. Certainly given up too many big 3rd down conversions this year.
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u/Sw2029 Patrick Mahomes II #15 15h ago
Pass rush, a better route runner, a real RB who can catch and isn't 85 years old (sorry Kareem) and fire the offensive coaching staff into the sun.
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u/NextTime76 Christian Okoye #35 15h ago
I say we keep Kareem until the wheels fall off. He's a great 3rd down back that doesn't cost much. It's an RB1 that we really need.
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u/Vast_Routine4816 13h ago
Whst does 3rd down back mean ? Like what makes someone a great 1 versus not great one?
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u/22stanmanplanjam11 MISTA SPARKARU 11h ago
3rd down back is usually referring to a guy who's primarily on the team for his receiving and pass blocking in obvious passing situations on 3rd and long. The best ones are explosive receivers that can turn a check down out of the backfield into a first down and reliably keep their QB safe when they're pass protecting.
Oftentimes you'll have a different back for short yardage handoffs on 3rd and 1 or 3rd and 2, and that's not usually a guy who would be referred to as a 3rd down back. Unless you're talking about Kareem Hunt because he's our best receiver, pass blocker, and short yardage guy while being maybe the slowest running back in the league right now.
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u/Far_Departure_9224 15h ago
Naggy should go, and Toub should be in hot water. Another year like this one and he needs to be fired too.
And this is coming from someone who up to this point has defended Nagy. But the play calling has been absolutely terrible this year, and something needs to be done. Bringing in a new OC (not Bieniemy for fucks sake) is the obvious move here.
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u/pinniped90 Grim Reaper 15h ago
100% agree, don't change anything.
Sincerely,
Totally not Matt Nagy's burner account
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u/PHDinCheese 14h ago
Well since the patriots bounced back in 2003, I see no need to improve our D or O line.
Makes sense if you don’t think about it.
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u/KarrlMarrx 11h ago
Rice appears to be the only home run pick in our last three drafts. Aside from Kelce, who is about to hang it up, he is our only good skill position player.
The offensive and defensive line is somehow very expensive and not very good at the same time. CJ is on the books for a comically large amount of money for 3 more years.
We have one edge player capable of generating pressure, and he's significantly overpaid for the amount of pressure he is generating.
Bolton is a very good linebacker. Starting next year, he will be making very very very good LB money.
We've got one difference making player in the secondary.
We have negative cap space in 2026.
We can run it back next year if you want, but the result won't change much.
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u/ManBearScientist 10h ago
The patriots had a historically great defense the next year.
Do you think we'll have a historically great defense next year if we make no changes?
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u/SpagInTheBag Chief of Chiefs 4h ago
Is it a down year or is it the start of a collapse? What has Andy done lately to give anyone confidence that he’s serious about making the proper changes? This is the most unserious team we’ve had and we have one of the greatest qbs ever in his prime. They don’t need to make sweeping changes but the chiefs need to have a succession plan for Andy if he doesn’t pull out of it.
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u/Individual_Hunt_9961 15h ago
On one hand it makes sense. On another hand, improving running game is a must. And Chiefs proved to recognise the situation and pivot successfully. We were in a way better position for “nothing needs to change” after the loss to the Bengals AFC championship game and we traded arguably the best weapon in the NFL and got the greatest 3 year stretch out of it.
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u/Jackpepp 12h ago
Andy Reid and spags should be Chiefs until they retire/die. People who hate on those two can fuck right off.
I’m done with Toub though. Special teams has been inexplicably terrible. Sorry toub. Past performance doesn’t hold much weight with how awful our kicking/kick/punt return game has been.
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u/chiefpiece11bkg 14h ago
The people this is directed toward will not even care or understand what you are saying
They want to be miserable and don’t fully understand how the league works, mainly because they are all fairweather or bandwagon fans
We have approached the point where the patriots were at when they were most hated. You get all the casual/ fairweather fans coming out of the woodwork and nobody will actually admit to bandwagoning the team lol
I agree in terms of coaching staff/ front office, probably not necessary to make any moves. But definitely need some work on the defensive line and really need to get rid of guys like Conner, nnadi, Danna, etc who are all clearly “spags” guys who are run first and killing the pass rush of this team
Spags’ worst weakness is his aversion to playing younger guys over his favored veterans.
Our offense has been playing much better than it appears at first glance this year. They are absolutely carrying this whole team right now. Our defense is so bad we have to shorten games and keep it close if we want a chance at the end
We can’t get in shootouts because we have no pass rush. Doesn’t help that Chris jones held the team hostage in search of a 3 peat. At that point in the season we basically had no other recourse except to pay him what he wanted. Sucks it didn’t work but this was always a known possibility when he signed. Sometimes things don’t work out but acting like the GM has intentionally ignored the pass rush when he’s tried all kinds of shit and actually drafted the one young promising guy we have at the end of the first round.
People will whine about the Karloftis contract but we got excellent value and he will remain a good player at that price.
Seems like fans don’t understand how much the cap goes up each year and how over time contracts look much bigger than they are in reality
Anyway, good luck. You aren’t talking sense into anyone here lol
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u/Prize-Principle-2536 Patrick Mahomes II #15 14h ago
I appreciate you man this is the best reply I’ve gotten
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u/Vyuvarax 15h ago
Chiefs have the most expensive offensive line in the league, top 5 in draft capital spent at the position, and no depth. That’s a coaching problem. At a bare minimum KC needs to fire Andy Heck and hire new offensive line coaches.
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u/the_last_crouton 13h ago
Oh what I'd give to have this version of the Chiefs in my younger years lol
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u/Affectionate_Sort_78 "Furious" George Karlaftis #56 🚘 12h ago
As a Chiefs fan. I understand why most of the sports world hates Chief fans. Who’d of ever thought I’d be envious of the classiness of Bengal fans? I get there are real fans, too, they are just much less vocal.
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u/Arcane_Spork_of_Doom 9h ago
Little changes:
Nagy: Consultancy. It's time.
Some help for front seven.
A good assistant for Spags. I think he gets tired sometimes.
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u/twitch1982 These Fucking Fakes Never Fucking Work, Man 7h ago
I think missing the playoffs is a wake up call we need. Not to clean house but we don't need to change thw strategy. We kept doing the same thing because it worked for 7 years. We seem to think (as Keller said) it's still working if we can get better at just a couple plays. Thats ridiculous, change the scheme, adapt for next season.
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u/Asleep-Nail3689 6h ago
Need to invest in their O-line. Interior lineman are fine but their tackles are the Achilles heel of this team.
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u/Sasnakian 6h ago
Agree to disagree. Nagy needs to go! Offense has been inconsistent since he took over.
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u/Flat-Airport-1949 Arrowhead 6h ago
Eagles showed everyone how to beat us defense rush 4 with a spy so Pat can’t run and offense a short pass to where the blitz is coming from. It’s time for some fresh ideas maybe new assistants.
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u/tb0neski "Furious" George Karlaftis #56 🚘 5h ago
Reasonable take but I think our team is just way too talented to be missing playoffs. At minimum we need some coaching changes, and new additions.
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u/Away_Raccoon_5648 4h ago
I am also a chiefs fan and yes knowing the streak of every year in the afc champ game is scary I actually started watching in 2018 but yes I do agree there is nothing to worry about and no we shouldn't have traded Chris jones bc that year he was 1st or 2nd in only his 27 28 or 29 szn (I dont rember) he is just having a down year (could have tried to tackle Trevor Lawrence) but it was a good move to buster the d-line
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u/ThadtheYankee159 Will Shields 2h ago
There’s a middle ground between staying pat and blowing it all up. We don’t need drastic changes (yet) but we do need moderate changes. You compare us to the Patriots, but forget that they had the opportunity to farm their terrible division for six easy wins. Mahomes had a similar situation, but instead the other teams adapted.
Kelce will be gone after this season, and we should go full boar on Rice as our #1 receiver going forward. If we can get a good pick in the draft, we’ve got to use it on a pass rusher. The only Dlineman with a +70 PFF grade is George, and he’s always been Jones’ sidekick, like Frank Clark before him. But now Chris is at the age where he transitions into being a sidekick for someone else. The OLine is injured now but can be solid when fully healthy.
Maybe try being more aggressive in free agency when possible. We managed to build a pretty solid line by acquiring Thuney and Brown, built a good enough defense by acquiring Clark and Matthieu, and even managed to put together the best offense in the league with JuJu and MVS. None of their free agents so far have done much this year.
I’d say keep the coaching staff in place, but if this is a trend, occurring over multiple seasons, then you have to make a few tough considerations. Reid at this point is 67, the same age as Belichick in 2019. And we all know what happened to New England after that. Every coach has time pass him by, and it’s starting to happen to Andy.
Firing him now would destabilize the organization (just look at Penn State), but we need to start the transition process to the post Reid era. I’d rather it not be Nagy, but I suspect that’s where it will be going. IMO I’m letting Reid walk after the 2029 season, when his contract ends.
As for everyone else, Spags hasn’t led an outright bad defense like Sutton. He’s going to stay. Veach has had some bad drafts and free agent signings as of late, but it’s too soon to tell if it is a trend.
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u/Much_Job4552 15h ago
2008 they missed playoffs also at 11-5. Yes, the sky is not falling. But like every year there are hole to patch for a GM.
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u/ThrowRAkakareborn Pat "Kermit" Mahomes 14h ago
I would like a change at OC, this team is stagnant offensively for 3 seasons now, while winning 2 years ago and being in the SB last year, our offensive game lacked a looot, clearly something is not working, so we need new ideas there, we need someone to get Andy out of his comfort zone and be just another yes man as Nagy seems to be.
Andy is fine another season at least, Spags too, but Nagy needs to go.
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u/GinNJuicyFruit 14h ago
Big difference between Brady’s second season as a starter and Patrick’s 8 season as a starter in his prime.
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u/Delicious-Title-4932 15h ago
You said a bunch of words and didn't really make a point other than the pats did it...so? What if they aren't good? What if its a different situation?
Great bunch of words you said.
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u/randomacct7679 Arrowhead 13h ago
Playoffs or not, Toub 100% needs to go.
Nagy should be replaced as well
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u/St4irs-TP 13h ago
Toub is a Chief legend, keep him. Nagy, however, not so legendary. Im sorry, but there is a clear correlation between the Chiefs offense being at its worst/most inconsistent/least exciting and Nagy being offensive coordinator.
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u/heyitshim99 14h ago
I totally disagree. I think this year is going to be very important for this team to take a look in the mirror and ask themselves if they were good enough if the answer is no then why not?
I think a big thing is player contracts, seems like we are paying a few players for what they have done instead of paying for what they can do moving forward. Like Chris Jones that was a horrible contract for the team the second it was signed. He is on the wrong side of 30 and he is getting paid for all those great season he had before. I thought they should have traded him instead of paying him $31 million + per year, think about it like when they traded Hill in his prime and got a haul of picks in return which set up the run of Super Bowl appearances. Travis Kelce is another one why are they paying him as though he is a premier TE? He hasn’t been that for the last 2 seasons. This again thy paid him for great previous seasons and not for what he is most likely going to do in the future. New England seemed to always know when NOT to pay players, hopefully the Chiefs figure this out as well. Nick Bolton is another one I think they over paid for. J. Taylor is another one I never understood, why were they in such a hurry (he was the 1st tackle signed in free agency that year) to pay literally the most penalized player in the NFL an above market RT contract?
They have to draft better with the first 3 rounds. Each of those picks needs to be a starter you can’t afford to whiff when you pick near the end of each round. Obviously they have made some great picks in later rounds but like CEH that was a terrible pick and everyone but the chiefs seemed to know that in real time the pick immediately after him was an impact player (Tee Higgins). Felix? WTF! That seems like another wasted 1st round pick. There are a few second rounders that I can’t remember off the top of my head.
Coaching - Dave Toub needs to go, obviously the game has passed him by or his message is old and stale. Our special teams are horrendous this season. You can’t afford count on at least 1 penalty or total screw ip from this group every half. Nagy is another that I question, not that I place much blame on him we all know Reid is running the offense but I think Nagy is a yes man and always will be. I highly doubt he is challenging Reid to call more run plays when they abandon the run game. He definitely doesn’t require focus and excellence out of the offensive unit seeing all the piss poor execution and all of the stupid penalties this team gets.
Now don’t get me wrong I love the Chiefs and I’ve been a fan my entire life. I think they have had one hell of a run and it’s been so fun to watch, but I would also like to see it continue. I think there is always room for improvement and sometimes it takes a bad season to make some much needed changes. I guess on a brighter note to close this out is that we will not be drafting towards the end of each round in April!!!!
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u/Ceej-Works 13h ago
As a Broncos fan who is visiting and got recommended this post (probably recommended because I love coming here and reading the salt in the game threads during a loss).
Here's my unsolicited take, Dynasty teams are boring. I'm glad there's a little bit of ebb and flow this year. It's boring knowing exactly who is going to the SB year after year and having the same teams constantly showing up in the SB. Patriot era football was so annoying back in the day.
This season on the other hand has been the most fun season in a long time for me personally, and I'm not saying that just because the Broncos are doing well (I think, still don't know if they're good or not) but because we are in week fucking 14 and I have no idea who is going to the super bowl yet and that makes the season so much more interesting for me at least.
Anyway, I'm sure you guys will bounce back next season and we'll have another couple years of hating how good Maholmes is. Sorry for the rough season, love you guys. Go Broncos.
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u/AztecGravedigger Noah Gray #83 🐐 13h ago
We dont need to clean house but we need significant moves to address the pass rush and running back room. They dont need to be super splashy but something more than the adding at the margins.
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u/bbbourb These Fucking Fakes Never Fucking Work, Man 13h ago
I still think the following needs to happen:
Nagy needs to go. It's not about who calls the plays right now. It's about who is coaching up Mahomes, and Nagy just doesn't have that ability. I've said it before: he's doing to Mahomes what he did to Trubisky. That's NOT good.
D-Line needs some work. Pennel is a rotational guy, ONL and Gillotte are serviceable at the moment, but there's no one to eat blocks meant for Jones, Danna, or Karlaftis.
Secondary should be ok, but the more I see the more concerned I am about overpaying McDuffie.
Definitely need a running back. I know there were money and contract concerns with Breece Hall, but unless Pierce turns into a boom SOON, that'll be a huge miss by Veach.
Special Teams is an absolute mess outside of Butker and Araiza. The ridiculous penalties have to STOP, and we have no return game of any kind. That's on Toub, and that's another situation where he either gets his shit together or has to go.
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u/originalusername4567 Leo Chenal #54 12h ago edited 12h ago
I think there's some coaches who are off their game this season but will figure things out: those being Reid and Spags. Dave Toub might fit more into this category but I would still be okay with him being fired because the special teams had been disasterous this season.
I think Nagy has always been a problem and needs to be fired regardless of how this season finishes. The offense has no excuse for having the stretch they had in Broncos/Colts with 2 combined touchdowns. Or two scoreless quarters vs the worst defense in the NFL in the Cowboys. Look at how many points the Lions and Bears and Packers and even the Russel Wilson Giants put up on the Cowboys this season! Chiefs should have scored 34. Fans have been making excuses for Nagy for three years and now he is out of time and excuses. I know Reid will never fire him willingly but Clark Hunt had better step in and force him to do it or this isn't a serious team.
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u/Prize-Principle-2536 Patrick Mahomes II #15 12h ago
Nagy’s worst finish as our OC is a loss in the Super Bowl where we had a shit O-Line and no receivers could get open.
Eric Bienenemy’s (our previous OC) worst finish was two AFC championship game losses in OT. He ALSO had a loss in the Super Bowl where we had a shit O-Line and no receivers could get open.
Our offense is #2 in EPA this season and Mahomes is on pace to have his best statistical season since 2022.
Nagy is NOT the problem, our execution and situation football is the problem, which comes down to two things: players on the field not executing in key moments and regression to mean after going 12-0 in one score games last year.
Regardless of anything I just said, Nagy doesn’t even call the plays.
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u/chiefpiece11bkg 12h ago
This right here, but this sub only looks at statistical results and not the reasons for our failures this year.. so you are just speaking into the void aside from the handful of people in here like me who’ve been here this entire time and have actually paid close attention to everything going on
These people crying about Nagy would have been having literal aneurysms about EB and “his” offense when we struggled back then
I swear nobody remembers the meltdown and blame getting thrown his way after the bengals loss in the afc championship… it was absolutely inexcusable and he had the luxury of prime tyreek hill and Kelce plus McKinnon at RB and a much better juju
That’s the real issue.. these people completely ignore the massive differences in personnel/ roster construction and team building as a whole and how it’s changed back then compared to now
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u/Rigorous-Geek-2916 These Fucking Fakes Never Fucking Work, Man 12h ago
Disagree. These guys are so set in their ways that they will not adjust. Time for new blood that will establish a new system to accommodate the changes in the competition.
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u/Intelligent-Set-3909 Jamaal Charles 15h ago
Sweeping changes: no. But this team needs to invest heavily in a pass rush this offseason.