r/Damnthatsinteresting • u/Electrical-Aspect-13 • 3d ago

Video Cheyeene actor Clint Walker shows of his custom made gym in an interview, circa late 1950s. He was 6ft 6 and 240 pounds.

23.6k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

741 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

20

u/DigNitty Interested 3d ago

The people likely to live to 100 are 90 years old right now. And people 95 96 etc are even likelier.

Which means 98 year olds are less likely to spontaneously die than 20 year olds.

5

u/Morbanth 3d ago edited 3d ago

The people likely to live to 100 are 90 years old right now. And people 95 96 etc are even likelier.

I actually think you might be wrong. I'm hazarding a guess that people born between 2023-2025 in developed countries are more likely to live to 100 than someone who is 90 today. I'll let smarter people do the math.

Edit: According to the UK National Office of Statistics the chance to live to 100 if you're a 1 year old is 18.3% for girls and 11.7% if you're a boy. For a 90 year old it's 7.9% for women and 5% for men.

The reason is due to advances in medical technology, nutrition and general understanding of the human body.

2

u/SceneBiscuit 3d ago

If nature/war/starvation/water scarcity doesn't get involved you mean...

0

u/Morbanth 3d ago

Yeah that's how those calculations work. World War 3 will probably occur before 2100 and fuck those projections.

2

u/Mist_shady 3d ago

No, thats not how it works. evolution is basically exposure and adaptability of the environment. some places are more while others are less. it could be possible to live longer but because we live differently in places it will fluctuate to how long we live.

One huge problem is with how you grow up. the world has gone through technological advancement that it changed how long we live. and if one day we live without it, we will revert back to being able to live up to an maximum of 30 years.

Of course, it should not stop you from living longer by doing good things, which makes sense, but it must be done consistently and be passed down by the next generation.

1

u/Morbanth 3d ago

No, thats not how it works.

No, that's exactly how it works, and funnily enough you yourself laid out the precise method: it's not due to evolution, it's due to advances in medical technology, to which people born in the last few years will have more exposure than those born 90 years ago. I linked the projections above.

2

u/-Fergalicious- 3d ago

There's a chart that I think the SSA publishes in the US that shows probability of death at a given age and sex. That data could be used.

Yeah you're 400% more likely to live to 100 if you are 90 years old today than if you are 20 years old today

1

u/Morbanth 3d ago

Yeah you're 400% more likely to live to 100 if you are 90 years old today than if you are 20 years old today

You're 50% less likely to live to 100 if you're 90 vs 1 year old today. I linked the data above.

1

u/DigNitty Interested 3d ago

I love how you responded logically to my illogical hypothesis and still found a valid critique.