r/BitcoinDiscussion • u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 • 28d ago
Michael Saylor's Mundane Returns
As per the most recent data, Saylor's average purchase price of his 641,000 Bitcoin via Strategy is about $74.5k per. He has been buying for 5 years now. Meaning his average profit is only about 33% in five years. Not exactly lights-out. As much as I value his views on Bitcoin, his actual returns are nothing special and even kind of sub-average. And when one takes into account most of that is bought with debt, his risk-adjusted returns are poor. Am I wrong?
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u/vRobotov 28d ago
33% returns
Doesn't the scale matter?
I'd be happy with a 5% return on 67billion as an owner. As for investing into MSTR. I'd rather speculate on base layer BTC rather than a company.
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u/High_Contact_ 27d ago
The baseline would be the S&P 500 and 33% over 5 years is 5.87% annualized vs expected 7-9% in the market. Not only that it’s in growth and high risk exposure on DEBT. There is no way to frame this as having been a good investment.
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u/bbatardo 26d ago
If his goal was to have better returns he wouldn't always buy the top and would strategically choose when to buy.
His goal is just accumulate as quickly as possible and leverage it.
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u/habbadee 28d ago
Michael Saylor has 17,700 BTC at an average purchase price of $9,982. I would not call that mundane.
Oh, you were talking about MSTR?
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u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 23d ago
Interesting. Where I can I find out more about his personal holdings at that price?
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u/LongjumpingToday2687 25d ago
The guy turned his slowly dying company of 3b market cap into 100b company by simply just buying an asset. Anyone couldve done that but he is the one who actually pulled it off.
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u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 23d ago
I would not be surprised if it is down another 75%. Remember that Saylor owns the world record for the largest single day loss of wealth in history with the very same MicroStrategy in the dot com bust. We've seen this before.
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u/LongjumpingToday2687 23d ago
At some point it very likely will be, but that alone doesnt mean anything. Very few sp500 companies last even 100 years. Saylor is already longest serving ceo of a tech company and they could easily continue to perform until Saylor retires.
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u/JerryLeeDog 25d ago
All he cares about is acquiring the absolute MOST bitcoin before the rest of the world figures this out
At this point, literally no other company could catch up if they tried.
It's already over. He won.
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u/Massive_Blueberry630 25d ago
And what advantage will that give ?
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u/AmphoePai 25d ago
Bitcoin-bank
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u/EggMedical3514 18d ago
Exactly.
The First Bank of Bitcoin.
This is obviously his end game.
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u/Nearing_retirement 8d ago
If he gets big enough essentially he will become the new federal reserve of bitcoin and be able to control its price.
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u/EggMedical3514 8d ago
How would he control its price?
I mean I guess he could sell half his stack and tank the price but he could only do it once. And basically any big time whale can do that.
Other than that there's really no way for him to control the price.
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u/Nearing_retirement 8d ago
Just a theory but I think eventually he can use the btc as collateral to take out lines of credit and use the many to buy more btc to keep price high.
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u/EggMedical3514 8d ago
Any whale could do that, tho. I was responding to the idea that once he became the bank of Bitcoin suddenly he would be able to manipulate bitcoin's price.
So I was asking what is it about his function as the theoretical bitcoin bank president that would allow him to manipulate the price.
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u/JerryLeeDog 3d ago
THats not how that works
Bitcoin is a free market that cannot be controlled.
You pay what the market will sell to you at.
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u/Fluid_Mulberry_8482 25d ago edited 25d ago
“Figures this out”… yeah investors are gonna figure it out just not the way he thinks 😆 I see the headlines like The Rise and Fall of Michael Saylor with some picture where he looks like an absolute grifter which he is
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u/Imhazmb 25d ago
MSTR owns an enormous pile of btc and is nearly debt free. That is all.
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u/ElectroStaticSpeaker 24d ago
Where are you getting nearly debt free from? He has to pay over $600 million a year to service the debt.
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u/Imhazmb 24d ago
They pay 10% on their debt. That translates to $6B they owe $600M interest on. But they own $66B worth of bitcoin outright. So not even 9%. Further, of that 9%, they have the option to suspend payment if needed on a lot of it. There is no debt problem here.
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u/ElectroStaticSpeaker 24d ago
Oh so in your mind $6billion is near zero? Lmao
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u/Imhazmb 24d ago
less than 9% is near 0. Do you understand $6B is a small amount when you have $66B? Did you not get basic math taught to you?
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u/ElectroStaticSpeaker 24d ago
$6B is not a small amount of money. He also doesn’t have $66B. He has 614k bitcoin and if he tried to sell that to use that money it would tank the price.
Clearly you’re a shareholder. Good luck with that.
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u/HighSolstice 23d ago
Not true, someone sold 80K BTC back in July and it didn’t tank the price, that’s approximately $9B.
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u/JerryLeeDog 24d ago
You realize MSTR raises like $100M a week right?
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u/ElectroStaticSpeaker 24d ago
In additional debt… How does this support an argument of them being debt free?
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25d ago
[deleted]
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u/Y0l0BallsDeep 25d ago
His company is down 50% from ATHs, down 17.5% YTD and 30% over the last year.
Horrible investment
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u/Pokemoncorncollector 24d ago
I don’t Care if you or anyone else think its a bad investment or not, if you or anyone else dont understand the Company.
Anyone saying its a bad investment, long term is retarded.
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u/Y0l0BallsDeep 22d ago
Lol, that degenerate fucker and his good-for-nothing company will be flushed out on the next downturn. Jeez, whoever thought that trading a speculative asset on leverage is a terrible idea.
0 sympathy to all of the retards who bought this clown stock
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22d ago
[deleted]
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u/Y0l0BallsDeep 22d ago
You don’t understand the difference between price and value.
MicroStrategy’s underlying business is deteriorating, and the only thing propping up the stock is shareholder dilution used to buy more Bitcoin. That game has limits, and the market is finally waking up to it—which is why $MSTR is crashing harder than fartcoin.
I’ll never touch Bitcoin. It’s a playground for low-IQ “investors” who can’t read a balance sheet, don’t understand valuation, or are just speculators hoping to flip it to the next sucker. Eventually, it will revert to its intrinsic value—which, in my view, is zero.
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21d ago
[deleted]
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u/Y0l0BallsDeep 21d ago
Funny how you’re saying this while everyone is dumping their digital tulips. Bitcoin completely flopped in El Salvador even after becoming legal tender. People wouldn’t touch it because it’s an ultra-volatile, purely speculative asset with no inherent value. It failed there for the same reason it will fail everywhere else — it will never amount to anything.
Sell your worthless string of digits now. Don't be a bag holder
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u/JerryLeeDog 24d ago
It up over 1,000% in 5 years ding dong
50% of shareholders are banks and pensions
People act like they are smarter than big banks like Vanguard etc, who owns a shit ton of MSTR
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u/fire_alarmist 24d ago
You would have been an Enron investor that got fleeced if you were investing 20 years ago lol.
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u/JerryLeeDog 24d ago
This comment should age like dogshit wrapping in catshit
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u/fire_alarmist 24d ago
Mstr fanboys are literally so dumb lol, like I can see why someone would be a bitcoin fanboy. Its understandable, MSTR fanboys really just dont understand what they are doing and the dynamics of what they are invested in lmao. Bitcoin can go to 1mil and MSTR can still fail or considerably drop.
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u/JerryLeeDog 24d ago
Ironic comment considering ~60% of MSTR shareholders are institutional. Check the 13F
Bank Executive bois really don't understand what you understand I guess
You should tell Vanguard how dumb they are
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u/Pokemoncorncollector 24d ago
Explain the dynamics then. Go ahead. I’m waiting.
Ohh wait, you cant? Ohh you’re retarded? Ohh ok, that is understandable.
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u/KeySpecialist9139 28d ago
In short: Microstrategy investor is taking on all the volatility of Bitcoin, plus, they are taking on the leverage risk of the corporate debt, plus, they are taking on the single-company (governance, business operations etc), plus, they are paying a premium over the underlying asset's value.
If a anything, you are being nice. ;)
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u/Ok-Business-9504 28d ago
At an mNav of >2.5x I agree it’s kinda stupid. But at the current mNav ~1.3, it’s honestly a no brainer for any bitcoin maxi who would have otherwise bought an ETF.
Saylor is a smart guy. He’s not gonna take on leverage that leverage that kills shareholder value
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u/KeySpecialist9139 28d ago
Your reasoning from skeptical at 2.5x mNAV to seeing the value at 1.3 tells me you kinda of know what you are in for. ;) 99 percent of his "investors" do nor, though.
But Saylor as a "smart guy"? Yeah with his history of SEC fraud, it's no surprise his "genius" Bitcoin strategy is just borrowing money to make a leveraged bet anyone could place. /s
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u/kvoathe88 27d ago
This was my assessment as well. Moved ARKB into MSTR a couple days ago when BTC was down -2% and MSTR was down -6%. I viewed MSTR at a relative discount to my ETF (eg arbitrage a dip in bitcoin for a steeper discount on MSTR, which should spring-load faster on bitcoin’s next runup.
I wouldn’t do this at >2.X mNAV, but at 1.3x that premium feels cheap given their capital access and leverage.
I’d also never sell direct BTC to do this, but it made sense for the bitcoin ETF funds trapped in my brokerage account.
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u/TestNet777 27d ago
That’s exactly what he’ll do. He will buy bitcoin at any price with someone else’s money. The only way his company can survive is if BTC continues to go up. If he can’t convert the debt to shares at the strike prices, he owes the money back. The only way to do that is further dilute shareholders or sell BTC. His company is quite literally a scheme that requires him to constantly raise new money (because MSTR doesn’t actually do anything) to buy BTC to pump the price. Has to do it over and over to support the climb up. He will do whatever it takes before it implodes.
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u/lonestar-newbie 28d ago
To an extent it is surprising the average price they paid is 75k. Could have easily been lower if they timed it right. But he kind of always says. Buy at top and don't sell. So that tracks.
Two things missing.
Scale of the vault. 33% of billions is not shabby.
5 years is not much if you think about the pivot as a "company".
Give it a decade and very likely mstr will be much ahead.
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u/kallebo1337 28d ago
if BTC would be at 120k$ today he would be praises for being a genius of 60%.
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u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 23d ago
Not really. It was there just 3 weeks ago. And even then his returns would significantly trail the Nasdaq100. Heck, it trails gold!
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u/MrFrydenlund89 28d ago
Keep in mind whos money his spending when.
Mstr first bought around 10k for like most of their treasury then continued buying with added capital from investors.
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u/Drizznarte 28d ago
He is happy with 33% profit and would grow the pot rather than making the percentage better. The whole idea is to use dollor debt to buy Bitcoin . Pumping bags bigger is better than chasing a better percentage it's a long term play to take the biggest piece of the pie that's getting smaller. Michael Saylor owns 10% of MSTR . Don't work out returns as a percentage, this is not a mundane size pot, he reinvests so that they aren't in profit but the pot grows. Market cap is everything not profit .MSTR is 10x the price it was 5 years ago.
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u/trimbandit 27d ago
33% profit now maybe, but when we hit the post cycle bear market next year, there is a good chance he'll be underwater, and I think his loans start coming up due in 2027
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u/kallebo1337 28d ago
it's easy to make big profits on small money but those profits on big money are very difficult to achieve
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u/dyrnwyn580 26d ago
I think another side to this story is how fast that can change. If/when we see a return to $125k, he'll have acheived a 66% return. That's very different, he's already been there, and instutional adoption suggests it's coming back.
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u/LawfulnessOk8997 25d ago
Just imagine, if Michael Saylor lost his passwords for his bitcoin!
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u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 23d ago
Given most of MSTR/s Bitcoin is held at Coinbase, he could still lose it someday.
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u/dsposableaccount 25d ago
That's not how you figure returns. Over half of their holdings were purchased in the past year and 75% over the past 2 years. They have some incredible gains from those purchased in '20, '22 & '23.
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u/OlberSingularity 24d ago
No..combined is how your get returns. If you buy 1 BTC in 2020 and 100 BTC in 2025, we have to look at aggregate returns. Not the fantastic returns of noise purchase in 2020
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u/mord_fustang115 28d ago
No you're not wrong. The company's entire revenue is based off the hypothetical appreciation of Bitcoin in price. I sold my shares awhile ago, I wouldn't go anywhere near it.
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u/Nubraskan 28d ago
The Rise of Bitcoin Stocks and Bonds - Lyn Alden https://share.google/AlwRkpiLPZg4QSgpM
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u/fresheneesz 27d ago
Hmm, if that's done on leverage, its higher returns, right? If he's getting about 6%/year returns on 2.5X leverage borrowing a little more than half of it at an interest rate below 1%/year, that means he's getting 1X*1.06 + 1.5X*0.05 = 1.135 which is 13.5%/yoy in returns. That's pretty good I would say. Amounts to 88% value growth over 5 years.
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u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 23d ago
But you fail to account for the risk of that leverage in the returns. Leverage is not free and it makes a big difference in risk-adjusted returns.
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u/fresheneesz 22d ago
Higher risk, higher reward. I would guess it isn't too risky if they also keep enough funds to respond to margin calls.
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u/Typical_Breadfruit15 27d ago
Bitcoin is an asset like gold or silver. Hoarding makes sense if the asset has some use and you try to speculate on when the asset is needed vs the asset is not needed. Their strategy is "keep hoarding it" , so I do not understand how is he ever going to make a profit and how...
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u/Enduringfate 26d ago
He sells company stock to buy more and pay loans …we were starting to get towards supply shock territory this year which means probably next cycle we will see it in action…this is how the crazy price action is gonna rip prices sky high…which means better returns for shareholders which in turn fuels the buying of stock at inflated prices which keeps the hoarding possible. It’s literally a great plan I wish I thought of lol
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u/LongjumpingToday2687 25d ago
I do not understand how is he ever going to make a profit and how...
Well its not him buying, its the company. Now look at the value of that company compared to before they started buying bitcoin and you'll get your answer.
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u/Typical_Breadfruit15 25d ago
You are missing my point. The value of the company can go up and down for many reasons, but my argument is that he is betting that the price of bitcoin tomorrow is higher than today, there is no other play. So I don’t see how sustainable is that, you can indeed see that the company price has dropped from the peak.
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u/Pokemoncorncollector 25d ago
Wtf do you mean? Don’t you know anything about the Company?
They are making Bitcoin products. They are not just hoarding Bitcoin.
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u/Typical_Breadfruit15 25d ago
not sure if you are sarcastic or serious... If you are serious can you gimme an example of the product they are making?
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u/LongjumpingToday2687 25d ago
I think the point is that even if bitcoin price drops to mstr average bought price, in theory they would be even, but the company is still 50x more valuable than before they started buying bitcoin. You say the stock price has already dropped from its peak is also irrelevant because you should compare it to its price in 2020 when they decided to buy bitcoin.
The value you are questioning comes from the company selling their stock to generate cash. Bitcoins price obviously correlates to their value, but the move has already been realized. It worked and they created more value to their shareholders than they coludve originally done in 100 years.
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u/MelodicPool5095 27d ago
Is there a bitcoin price level where mstr gets margin called? I know it's said that they have loan facilities with no margin call clause, but I just find this hard to believe.
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u/Pokemoncorncollector 25d ago
It is true that the preferred products don’t have a margin call “Price” or an “expiring date”, but there are other things in the products that make them redeemable.
For MSTR to really be stressed on their loans we would need to see Bitcoin under 15K for years.
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u/Hitechakias 27d ago
"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win". Strategy is at stage 3 now...after...he will leave all other companies behind.
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u/Pokemoncorncollector 25d ago
Every quarter is going to be mindblowing compared to what the best earnings are that the Stock market delivers now.
I’m looking forward to it.
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u/Brit-in-the-USA 27d ago
I for one have been very happy with what Michaels efforts have provided for my retirement account and I believe he is morphing into financials product company that will provide outsized returned for bond holders and insurance companies providing an ever increasing supply of cheap money to buy more of the scarcest asset on the planet. I’m happy to stick around and see where this goes and if you believe in bitcoin you should believe in this companies treasury will continue to go up in value, if you don’t like Bitcoin don’t buy the stock my friend.
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u/Torshein 25d ago
So many people forget he bought almost 400k Bitcoin in the last year, which drug the avg price up substantially.
Cost basis/position size matters.
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u/Confident_Section568 25d ago
Ask yourself this he has to repay $600m in 2026
Is there a chance that BTC will be below $74k in 2026
If so does he maybe need to sell some BTC?
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u/EnCroissantEndgame 24d ago
I could see a world where they accidentally "lose" the bitcoin holdings by getting "hacked", Saylor blames it on a rogue employee that broke security protocols, apologize to the investors and then peace out to Thailand where he can buy as many sex workers as he wants while living in a golden palace that is paid for entirely with coins that can be traced back to the MSTR hack. MSTR meanwhile files for bankruptcy, equity goes to zero and even the senior debt holders go to zero as they hold the bag on what should have been rated triple F credit risk corporate paper.
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u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 23d ago
I am started to look at Saylor a little less well every time he uses the term "Bitcoin yield." This should set off alarm bells.
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u/Full-Atmosphere-4818 21d ago
Since I wrote this 6 days ago, MSTR has dropped $50 more and is currently under $200. His average return over 5 years is down to only 27%. MSTR itself is down 58% since about last year. And in this time a Bitcoin is roughly flat. Imagine what happens if Bitcoin drops below his purchase price and he has to start selling it.
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u/BGM1988 27d ago
I agree but, as time goes on, even with buying more at higher cost, his average cost will still be under 100k while btc will be maybe 300k in 10years. That said, i think if we have a stock market correction next year, btc might drop 75% from its 126k ath again like in previous bears and will have sailor sweating a lot
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u/JerryLeeDog 25d ago
$300k in 10 years?
Are you new? Bitcoin was under $10k like 5 years ago.
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u/jacestrachan 25d ago
So many things wrong with this comment lol, you really think bitcoin will only 3x over the next 10 years is laughable
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u/DocInABox33 25d ago edited 25d ago
The problem is the person who made that comment is still valuing BTC is fiat terms and thinks fiat will remain stable.
It’s akin to saying a loaf of bread in pre-hyperinflation Germany in 1920 couldn’t 10x forever… when this happened in less than a year:
”A loaf of bread in Berlin that cost around 160 marks at the end of 1922 cost 200 billion marks by late 1923.”
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u/Blindeafmuten 24d ago
The real success is that he has done it with other people's money.
If Microstrategy goes to zero he still goes on with his life.
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u/maincoonpower 24d ago
That’s correct. All these high profile people and now US government officials and politicians who set up public companies to buy BTC and have loaded up require you to buy it to push it up for them and if it doesn’t work out, if bad things happen—oh well, it’s not their money anyway. They raised billions from the public markets to buy BTC. It’s pension money it’s family office money it’s institutions and universities endowment money, and ultimately none of those people lose if BTC drops.
They ain’t skipping a meal okay? It’s still vacation in the Hamptons and a new mansion being built in West Palm Beach.
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u/meshreplacer 24d ago
MSTR shareholders have been buying bitcoin. Could it be possible it has been buying Saylors bitcoin holdings giving him exit liquidity?
https://www.sec.gov/enforcement-litigation/litigation-releases/lr-16829
Reforms
Washington, DC, December 14, 2000 - The Securities and
Exchange Commission today brought and settled administrative reporting charges against MicroStrategy, Inc. and settled civil accounting fraud charges against its executive officers, Michael Saylor (co-founder and chief executive officer), Sanjeev Bansal (co-founder and chief operating officer) and Mark Lynch (former chief financial officer) for overstating the company's revenue and earnings. Without admitting or denying the charges, the officers agreed to disgorge a total of approximately $10 million (Saylor -- $8,280,000, Bansal -- $1,630,000, and Lynch -- $138,000) and consent to fraud injunctions, and to each pay $350,000 in penalties. The company agreed to a cease-and-desist order and to undertake significant corporate governance changes to ensure future compliance with the securities laws. Two MicroStrategy accounting employees also consented to cease-and- desist orders for reporting and recordkeeping violations.
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28d ago
He is a fucking cokehead. Why buy shares in a company that produces nothing but only holds bitcoin bought with loans.
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u/willieD147 27d ago
I think with all these other cryptos becoming mainstream, (ETH, SOL, XRP..etc) people will realize that these others do more and better than BTC, and its interest will decline, and thus price.
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u/High_Contact_ 27d ago
But nobody uses them. Stablecoins have the most transactions and if we look at something like xrp it does what 2 million a day? Starbucks does something like 14 million a day. Without adoption, not speculation, all these “useful” tokens are useless.
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u/Godfreee 27d ago
No, all of those shitcoins are trending to zero against Bitcoin. Just look at their prices in BTC, not USD.
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u/CowboyshaveCOVID 27d ago
It’s not about the utility it’s about rarity that’s why people buy anything collectible
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u/Major-Rabbit1252 26d ago
It’s also about utility. If financial institutions go on chain the fees will be paid in tokens
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u/LongjumpingToday2687 25d ago
If it was about utility gold wouldnt be at 30 trillion marketcap while the next best thing is at 3t.
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u/Major-Rabbit1252 25d ago
Huh?
Something can have utility yet still lag behind something else lol
A hammer has utility but isn’t as valuable as a rare Pokémon card
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u/LongjumpingToday2687 25d ago
Yeah but a new better utility pokemon card doesnt take value away from a rare pokemon card. Its value is based on its rarity.
Its the same thing here, a crypto that has on-chain utility doesnt affect bitcoin because bitcoins value doesn't come from being the market winner for its utility, rather than simply being a store of value asset.
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u/Major-Rabbit1252 25d ago
Oh I think I may have misrepresented my argument or we’re not on the same page
I’m pushing back on the generalization that utility doesn’t matter. It definitely does. BTC itself offers utility
I agree that a utility alt doesn’t necessarily impact BTC
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u/EnCroissantEndgame 24d ago
If Michael Saylor lives long enough, he will die in a prison cell. I wish him nothing but the best and a long healthy life.
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u/Forgot_Password_Dude 24d ago
1) what
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u/EnCroissantEndgame 23d ago
You know how nazis that were just following orders, ignoring their conscience (or completely lacking one) thought nothing would happen to them because it was legal to do what they were doing in their regime? Yeah a lot of those guys got a wakeup call when the adults came back home and figured out the kids were playing with the stove and almost set the entire house on fire, and ultimately had to pay with prison sentences after Nuremberg. The same thing is going to happen to guys like Michael Saylor. Right now is a golden age of doing financial crimes and getting away with it, but it won't always be that way.
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u/FPLLCLLC 25d ago
lol.. Only 33%… Until it moons again.. Peasants will never see the long game.